September 23, 2011:
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Thursday brought plenty of clouds, as expected. Showers started moving into parts of eastern Missouri and southern Illinois during the late morning and early afternoon hours. As of this writing (3:30 pm) the rain had not quite reached far western Kentucky
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Showers will continue to push east this evening and overspread the rest of the region. Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.30" appear most likely. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder. There has not been hardly any lightning strikes to our west - so far with this storm system. Not overly concerned about thunderstorms.
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No severe weather is in our forecast for the foreseeable future. Good news on that front.
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Friday will bring a mix of sun and clouds with cooler temperatures.
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I will be watching an upper level low pressure area over the weekend. Approaching from the north - this could mean a few more clouds and showers. Latest data all indicates a chance for showers on Saturday and then a better chance of rain for Saturday night into Sunday. Some of the data is even showing some moderate rain at times. Will need to monitor this - hopefully it does not ruin weekend plans.
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Here is what that upper level low looks like on the NAM (weather model) - quite impressive. It is even more impressive on Sunday night/Monday morning (see second image). Basically this is energy.
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Click images for real size view - images are from www.wright-weather.com
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
.Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a period of showers. A stray rumble of thunder possible. Cooler. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 50-53 degree range. | Wind: Northwest wind at 5-10 mph - a few gusts to 15-20 mph as the front nears and passes. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 90% .
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler temperatures. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 68-73 degree range. | Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10%.
Friday night: Partly cloudy and cool. A chance for a shower late. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 50-55 degrees | Wind: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10%.
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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers. Cool. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 68-73 degrees | Wind: East/southeast wind at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30%.
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Some changes to the weekend forecast - we may see some showers pop up as early as Friday night or Saturday morning. An even better chance of rain will arrive on Saturday night and Sunday. Some data shows rainfall totals exceeding 0.40". Will monitor and update on Friday.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
.You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: No big headlines - nice temperatures for the next few days. Mostly below normal. Showers will come to an end behind the front on Friday morning. It is looking more and more likely that there will be some rain chances for the weekend (especially Saturday night into Sunday night).
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Otherwise no dramatic weather is in the forecast! We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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No significant threats. Rain tonight will come to an end after 3 am. Rainfall totals are not expected to be significant. No severe weather or high winds are forecast. Coolish weather for the weekend - I did increase rain chances on Saturday and it is looking more and more likely that there will be some showers/rain on Saturday night into Sunday night .
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Here is the map for Thursday - this is the probability (chances) for at least 0.10" of rain to fall from 8 pm through 2 am. A decent chance of rain during that time frame - and most likely a few hours beforehand, as well over some of our counties.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate. This has been a concern for quite some time now. Droughts tend to creep. Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets. I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months. This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest crop moisture index map. Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas. The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.
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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here..
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1. Still watching an upper level low pressure area for the weekend. This upper level low could spark a few showers on Saturday and then better rain chances for Saturday night into Sunday night. The best chance might be on Sunday. Will monitor and update accordingly. Severe weather is not in the forecast.
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Here is the rainfall forecast for Saturday night into Sunday night. Will monitor - all of the afternoon data and actual weather maps appear to be pointing more and more towards increasing rain chances for Saturday into Sunday (esp Saturday night and Sunday). Don't cancel weekend plans - but check back. Might need a jacket from time to time.
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I don't see any big severe weather outbreaks in the near term. We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye. Don't forget that September is preparedness month. For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
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We have a new tropical storm - named Ophelia. It is located in the Atlantic and is moving east/northeast. You can track this system by clicking here.
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Here is the current forecast track
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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