September 24, 2011:
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: A chance for showers over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies over western Kentucky - becoming cloudy after midnight. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 54-58 degree range. | Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 30% .
Saturday: Cloudy with a chance for morning showers over the entire area then a chance for showers - mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois during the afternoon hours. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 73-78 degree range. | Wind: South/southwest winds at 5-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 40%.
Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for showers - possible rumbles of thunder. Locally heavy rain possible late over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Pockets of fog. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 55-60 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds early and then north winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 60%.
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Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Pockets of fog possible. Cool. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 68-73 degrees (cooler over southeast MO and southern IL and warmer as you move towards Kentucky Lake | Wind: South/variable winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 90%.
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Continue to increase rainfall chances for the weekend and rainfall totals. Latest guidance suggest locally heavy rain will be possible - especially on Saturday night and Sunday. I would not cancel any weekend plans - I would simply check radar in the morning and afternoon. The most likely time period for widespread rainfall will begin on Saturday night and the early AM hours of Sunday and then continue into Sunday evening. Can not rule out some rainfall totals exceeding 1-2" - most of that falling on Saturday night into Sunday night.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Locally heavy rain will be possible. A few thunderstorms - small hail not out of the question due to the cold air aloft.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Locally heavy rain will be possible. A few thunderstorms - small hail not out of the question due to the cold air aloft.
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You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
.You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Friday brought a mix of sun and clouds to the region. This was behind the cold front that brought 0.10-0.40" to the region overnight and during Friday morning. I picked up 0.34" here at my place during the overnight hours. Adding to the September rainfall totals. Much needed rain - I might add.
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The upper level low that I have been talking about all week will spread clouds and a chance for significant rains into portions of our region - starting as early as tonight and increasing as we move into Saturday night and Sunday. I would not be surprised to see a band of 1-2" of rain in a few spots - can't rule out higher totals.
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Much of the region will experience some rain this weekend. However, it won't rain over the entire region all of the time. I am expecting a band of showers and thunderstorms to be concentrated over parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southwest Indiana on Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. If this is where the band sets up then this will also be where the heaviest rainfall totals will be experienced.
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As far as western Kentucky - we will see rain chances increase on Saturday night and especially on Sunday into Sunday afternoon. Rainfall totals over western Kentucky will likely be in the 0.40-1.00" range. pockets of higher totals. Rainfall totals over parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois will likely be in the 0.75-2.00" range. Pockets of heavier rain in spots.
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The wild card in this weekend rain event is exactly where the main band of precipitation sets up shop. Similar to winter storms - the exact placement of the upper level low will be critical in placing the heaviest rain bands. There is some uncertainty on this subject. Again, at this time, I suspect that heaviest band will be somewhere between Cairo, Illinois and Poplar Bluff, Missouri and St Louis, Missouri over to Evansville, Indiana.
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Any shift in the band will cause the forecast to change. At least one model drops 3" of rain over Paducah - whereas another model only shows 0.50" for the City of Paducah. Big difference in model data. Stay tuned!
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Check out the upper level low to our north on Friday afternoon (see the 500 mb low over Chicago). Then the second image shows you what that same low will look like on Sunday night. It strengthens and continues to spin near our region. This is the reason for our increasing rain chances.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Rain chances have increased for the coming days. At one point I had hoped most of the weekend would remain dry. That is out the window. The upper level low is going to strengthen and help increase chances for fairly significant rainfall over our region. Best advice - check radar if you have outdoor plans on Saturday and Sunday. The heaviest rain will likely be during the overnight hours on Saturday and into Sunday evening. Severe weather is not anticipated. Remember to avoid driving through flooded roadways.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember that the exact placement of the heaviest rain band is not for certain. This area of heavier rainfall totals could shift west or east - depending on the placement of the upper level low. Check back for updates.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here. Time stamps are at the top of the image - again this is a map telling you the PROBABILITY (chances) of rainfall totally at least 0.10" during that six hour period.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate. This has been a concern for quite some time now. Droughts tend to creep. Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets. I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months. This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest field moisture anomaly map. Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas. The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain. You can see that the dry area has spread over the last few weeks.
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.You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.---
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1. Longer range pattern is indicating near normal temperatures. No big severe weather outbreaks are forecast. Some good news.
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We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye. Don't forget that September is preparedness month. For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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