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I have been away for a few weeks. I thought we should look back over the summer forecast and see what verified and what did not very. If was a tricky long range forecast that failed in a few areas - mainly the temperature department.
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Let's review the highlights:
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The forecast was for temperatures to average near normal to below normal for the three month period. In this category I would grade the forecast with an C. It was a hot summer. Temperatures for most of June through July were above normal and many times were much above normal. August was close to normal when it came to temperature.
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My forecast was for June to end up above normal in the temperature department. That verified. Temperatures were above normal. Where the train went off the rails was July and August. I thought the high pressure would be more likely to shift to our south and west - instead it seemed to hang around for weeks on end. This brought above normal temperatures (for much of July and parts of August. Ten days in August were below normal)
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The wild card in the summer forecast was whether or not the drought to our south and west would spread east and north. I knew this could throw my temperature forecast into the dumpster.
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I also discussed in the summer forecast that we would have to closely monitor the drought to our south and west - droughts tend to creep. This drought was no different. It made numerous attempts to shift north and east into our region. There were times during the summer that portions of our region were dry and needed rain.
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The good news is that we did have a number of rain events - at times they were spaced far apart - but rain did fall. My call for precipitation for the summer was for normal to above normal rainfall. And for most of the region that is exactly what fell. Paducah ended up above normal for the three month period. This was mainly pushed over the top by June rainfall events.
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Here at my place, in Massac County, I experienced nearly 15 inches of rain from June through August. Not too bad for summer. Just enough rain to keep us out of drought. Areas to the south and west were much drier at times - but this was no surprise because of the proximity of the drought.
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By the numbers at Paducah, Kentucky
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Temperatures compared to what I thought would happen
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June - average temperature was 78.0 degrees. This was above normal. This would be an A+ forecast - as I mentioned June would likely bring above normal temperatures.
July - average was 81.9 degrees which was well above normal. This would be a D forecast as I thought temperatures would be normal to below normal.
August - average was 77.9 degrees which was near normal. This would be given a grade of B as I thought the forecast would bring average to below average temperatures. Ten days in August were below normal in the temperature department.
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Precipitation compared to what I thought would happen
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June - precipitation was 6.75" which was well above normal. This would be an A+ forecast and is what I called for.
July - precipitation was 3.83" which was below normal (by about 0.60" - at least in Paducah. Portions of the area did end up above normal during July). This would be graded a C because the forecast was for normal to above normal precipitation.
August - precipitation was 1.46" which was below normal. This would be graded as a D because it was well below normal. I had hoped a tropical system might influence our rainfall during the month of August - helping to keep us wetter than normal. Tropical systems are always a wild card.
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I wasn't happy with the summer forecast - overall. June turned out as planned but July and August brought more heat waves than I expected.
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Let's take a look at the hurricane part of the forecast. I expected the highest risk zone for be on the east coast and then a second area over southern Florida and one small area of the Gulf of Mexico. We still have several weeks to go for the hurricane season - but let's take a look at what has happened thus far.
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The first map below is what I put out in May (the red areas is where I expected a tropical storm or hurricane to strike).
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And now let's take a look at where the systems have tracked (thus far - remember we have the rest of September into October to go). This map below is from Wiki and shows where storms or hurricanes have struck during the last few months.
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Three of the areas, that I forecast to have hits, have indeed experienced tropical storms or hurricanes. One along the Gulf of Mexico - one on the southeast coast and one hit for the northeast. The hurricane forecast is in good shape. I will update this map at the end of the season.
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I discussed the possibility of La Nina making a come back this fall and summer. That appears to be what is happening. Last year was a La Nina winter for our region. La Nina isn't the only influence for the fall and summer forecast - but it is one.
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The summer forecast, as it was originally posted, can be read below. This forecast was issued at the end of May.
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Summer Thoughts:
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We have almost made it to meteorological summer - what is meteorological summer? Meteorologists break the seasons down into three month periods - meteorological summer runs from June through August. .
So with that in mind - let's take a look at some of my thoughts (and the thoughts of a few others) for the upcoming summer pattern. .
One thing I am watching for is where the high pressure ridge (in the summer the high pressure ridge to our south means sinking air - in the summer these type of high pressure systems produce hot conditions over our region) sets up this summer. If it sets up near our region then we can expect warm/hot and dry conditions. However if it sets up far enough to our south or southwest then we would be in the ring of fire region. .
What is the ring of fire? The ring of fire is an area of showers and thunderstorms that normally occur along the edge of the big high pressure ridge. That is because the jet stream goes around the area of high pressure. The jet stream is where we normally find active weather. Winds - high aloft - strong winds. These stronger winds help support thunderstorm complexes.
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I have made a map below - the L's represent areas of low pressure - the big H would be the summer high pressure "heat ridge" that normally sets up shop somewhere near our region. Imagine the heat ridge as a clock - moving storms systems around the edge of the clock - normally that is called the ring of fire. The ring of fire would be storms/thunderstorms/squall lines that rotate around the edge of the area of high pressure. .
It is in these areas - the thunderstorm areas - that can receive above normal rainfall and severe weather. Last year that ring of fire pummeled Iowa and parts of Illinois and Indiana with significant rain and flooding. .
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Right now it appears that the first half of June may very well provide a decent opportunity for warmer than normal conditions before we move towards a pattern more conducive for more frequent cold fronts. This would be more towards the middle/latter half of June into July..
There is already hints of a trough in the east as early as the middle of next week - a trough would bring cooler than normal temperatures to at least portions of the Ohio Valley and northeast. So - we are already going to be keeping an eye on the pattern in the short range. But, again - not before some very warm temperatures during the upcoming week.
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Temperatures will be anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal over our region during the coming days. .
That isn't to say we won't have some active weather in the coming 2 week period. It does appear we have at least a chance for some active storms as we move into next week (week of the 5th). I am watching a couple of systems that could spark showers and thunderstorms during that time period. .
Also during the summer months we have to start thinking about mesoscale thunderstorm complexes.These are large thunderstorm areas that form at night and normally move towards the east/southeast. They can bring heavy rain and high winds - even tornadoes. Again - these complexes of storms usually form on the outer edge of the high pressure ridge. So where the high pressure ridge sets up this summer will be important as far as our sensible weather (what is actually happening in our local counties).
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Here is a satellite image of a mesoscale thunderstorm complex (this isn't current)..
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If the summer forecast pans out as expected then we might see quite a few of these systems push through portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Watch for me posting satellite images of the mesoscale complexes as they form in the coming weeks. .
The potential for some damaging squall line - high wind events is definitely on the map - as they say. .
Anytime you have strong cold fronts busting through the heat you can experience thunderstorms with the energy to produce widespread wind damage events. Something I will definitely be watching in the coming weeks. The late 1970s and early 1980s brought several of those events to our region.
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Something else to keep in mind - as we look at the current pattern - is the presence of a significant drought to our southwest - covering portions of Texas and Oklahoma. This is the same drought that impacted our region last year. In contrast, we find our region under flooded conditions with above normal rainfall over the last 60 days.
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Here is the moisture anomaly map - feast or famine - as I like to say! .
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A tale of two extremes. Remember, I have said for several years now, that we are in a 1930s type pattern - extremes are to be expected and this is nothing new. I call it feast or famine. Too much rain - not enough rain - too hot - too cold. Nothing new under the sun - this is a typical cycle that our region experiences from time to time. .
Here are some maps showing you the extreme wet (blue areas) and extreme dry (red areas) covering portions of our region. I have circled the wet area with a green line and the drought/dry areas with a red line. See how close together they are? Feast or famine! Take your pick.
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The map above shows you the extreme drought impacting parts of the Kansas/Oklahoma/New Mexico/Arizona/Texas region and then that drought extends along the Gulf of Mexico. These areas are in desperate need of rain. A natural disaster in itself.
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Here is the official drought forecast from NOAA. NOAA is the organization that issues forecasts as to whether a drought is expected to worsen or improve. You can see that they are officially calling for some improvement. Let's hope that is the case. Click the image for real size view. .
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How much precipitation is needed to end the drought? Quite a bit in some areas - 10-17 inches! Tropical systems could certainly bring that much and more. One part of the forecast to keep an eye on in the coming months - tropical activity. Which could even start a bit earlier than usual this season..
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We also have to think about hurricane season - which begins this week. As we have learned over the years - hurricanes don't only impact the coastal regions. Our region experienced a widespread wind event from the remnants of Hurricane Ike. Winds of 50-90 mph were reported over much of the Paducah forecast area. The remnants of Ike, as many of you will remember, caused widespread power outages and wind damage. .
We have also witnessed some of the areas most intense flash flooding (remember Elena in 1985 in Paducah, Kentucky - flooding killed several children and caused major damage to homes and businesses). Many times tropical systems will slow down and meander in and near our region. This can cause significant rainfall totals. Not to mention isolated tornadoes from the spinning arms of tropical system. There is no way to forecast whether one of these events will happen from year to year. It is simply something to be mindful of as push into hurricane season. .
I found this chart on-line. This indicates the number of named storms that can be expected this year. Numbers are meaningless - in reality. If one major hurricane, like Hurricane Katrina or Andrew, hits the United States then it was a bad hurricane season. If there are 20 named storms and all of them stay off-shore then does anyone really care (tree falling in the forecast vs a tree falling on your home)? .
Reality vs sensible weather sometimes do not match up. Sensible weather is what YOU care about.
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It is impossible for forecasters to know how many hurricanes will actually hit the United States this year. If someone tells you New Orleans or New York is going to be hit by a hurricane this season then they are making it up - it is simply impossible for meteorologists to know more than a few days in advance. .
Bottom line for hurricane season - as ALL hurricane seasons - those along the coastlines should stay updated on tropical forecasts and listen to emergency management officials as this season unfolds. The upcoming tropical season has the potential to produce some significant hurricanes. National Hurricane Season web-site..
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My thoughts on the hurricane season - highest risk zones may end up being over the eastern U.S. with some pockets elsewhere.
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So - there is a lot to consider in the coming months. Whether we actually end up with the cooler than normal temperatures in July and August (as expected) or a drought situation with hotter than normal conditions. Inquiring minds want to know! .
Tough call - and keep in mind that long range forecasting is not an exact science. .
Most of the analog years point towards cooler than normal conditions for July and August - which would tend to also mean normal to above normal precipitation. We may have a warm start - over the next few weeks - before things level out a bit. I am not a fan of the heat and humidity - so I am rooting for the cooler solutions to verify. Others of you may actually like the heat and humidity. I guess the battle lines are drawn!.
I should note that there are significant disagreement among national forecasters in how the summer plays out - with some calling for extreme heat (like the 1988 episode) and others calling for a virtual year without a summer for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Obviously both can't be correct. Thus the fun of long range forecasting.
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One big concern I have concerning the below normal temperature potential is the extreme drought to our southwest. Never like to see drought knocking on the door - even though we have been wet. In this type of extreme pattern (as we have seen) we can go from flooding rains to no rain at all - within weeks. So - this is definitely in the back of my mind as we move forward into summer. .
Here is the official outlook for temperatures - June into August. You can see that our region has been placed in the below normal temperature range. Remember - this is for all three months averaged out. There will certainly be extremes along the way. And note the warmer than normal temperatures are not far away..
But, I will say this, in a year that has been full of surprises and extremes - one would be wise to stay tuned to future changes in the forecast! We may have a number of tropical systems to track - along with the mesoscale thunderstorm complexes.
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Bottom Line...
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Remember that weather is made up of extremes and we are in an extreme climate pattern. This means that we may see the pendulum swing from much above normal temperatures to much below normal temperatures - similar to what we have been experiencing over the last year. .
Several squall line events could produce widespread wind damage potential - winds greater than 80 mph. We will also have to monitor the potential for slow moving thunderstorm complexes that could produce pockets of flash flooding. Those meso-scale complexes that form in the summer can produce some locally heavy rain .
We will be watching La Nina as she dies away in the Pacific - we will enter a more neutral Enso pattern - neither La Nina or El Nina - at least for the short term. Then we will have to see if La Nina returns towards fall and winter of 2011-2011. .
We will have to keep a close eye on the tropics as systems move into the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that several significant tropical systems could cause problems for our neighboring states. Above normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico is a recipe for trouble. .
Other meteorologists that have summer thoughts out are Larry Cosgrove, Joe Bastardi, Joseph D 'Aleo, an David Tolleris. Not everyone agrees on the upcoming summer months - but all are worth a read. .
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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