September 21, 2011:
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Clouds lingered longer than I would have liked on Tuesday - although as of this writing I can see blue sky approaching from the west. Better late than never. The clearing/partial clearing line cuts the region in half.
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Here is a visible satellite (remember the visible satellite images can only be viewed during daylight hours and shows cloud cover) image showing the clearing line. The white area on the map is cloud cover - the darker area is where clouds have cleared. This satellite image was taken around 5 pm.
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Temperatures today were held down because of the cloud cover. Still a fairly large area of below normal temperatures in the nation. Now too bad for the middle of September. The map below shows you how much above or below normal temperatures were on Tuesday.
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The next storm system is already on the weather map. A trough of low pressure will approach the region on Thursday. This will help spark a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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It appears the best chance for precipitation on Thursday will be somewhere between 3 pm and 9 pm. Of course I will need to fine tune this - but a line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with a cold front. Again - severe weather is not anticipated.
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A cold front will also push through the region during the day on Wednesday. As mentioned last night the best chance for any precipitation with this system will be over the south and east portion of the area. Most of the area will remain dry, however, on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
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Temperatures will be mild over the coming days - mostly in the 70s during the daytime hours and 50s during the overnight hours. Would not be a bit surprised if portions of the area even dipped into the upper 40s on Thursday night and Friday morning.
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I will be watching an upper level low pressure area over the weekend. Approaching from the north - this could mean a few more clouds and showers. However, for the time being, I will keep the weekend forecast dry - but monitor for updates.
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I am not seeing any indications of severe weather over the coming week or weekend.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
.Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for patchy drizzle and rain showers - mainly over the eastern and southern half of the region. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 54-58 degree range. | Wind: Near calm winds. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10% .
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds - dense fog during the morning hours. Mild. A chance for a shower over the far eastern part of the region - otherwise dry. Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 76-79 degree range. | Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10% Lows: around 54-57 degrees | Wind: North winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%
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Thursday: Some morning sun possible followed by mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers and thunderstorms - mainly during the late afternoon hours (moving in from the west/southwest). Cooler. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 68-74 degrees over the west/northwest part of the area and in the 70s elsewhere | Wind: West at 5-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 60%.
Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a period of showers and thunderstorms - mainly early in the overnight hours. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 50 degrees | Wind: Northwest winds at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 60%.
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No big changes. Tweaked temperatures a bit for Thursday. Fine tuning the rain chances on Thursday, as well.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
.Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A thunderstorm possible during the afternoon.
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You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
.You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Clouds took longer to move out on Tuesday afternoon than expected. Clouds will linger on Wednesday over the region. Even a stray shower is possible over that portion of our area.
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For those heading out to the BBQ festival on Thursday - there will be a chance for a period of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall totals should be around 0.10-0.40". We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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No significant threats. Winds will be light over the next day or two. Fog on Wednesday morning. The next chance for precipitation will be on Thursday afternoon and evening as a front pushes through the area.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Here is the map for Thursday - this is the probability (chances) for at least 0.10" of rain to fall from 2 pm through 8 pm. You can see the area of rain pushing in from the south and west (then see the second map for the next time frame). Basically this is telling me that the rain chances will increase during the afternoon and evening and spread northeast and east into the area.
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Then here is the map for Thursday - this is the probability (chances) for at least 0.10" of rain to fall from 8 pm through 2 am.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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Check out the Friday morning forecast lows. A bit on the cool side!
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate. This has been a concern for quite some time now. Droughts tend to creep. Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets. I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months. This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest soil moisture capacity map. Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas. The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain..
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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here..
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1. The weekend looks nice - right now I am leaning towards partly sunny sky conditions and temperatures in the 70s during the day and 50s at night. Sunday morning will likely be cooler with lows into the 40s across part of our area.
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The fly in the ointment will be an upper level low moving south through Illinois and Indiana. This could spread more clouds into the region. For now I will keep the forecast dry - but will monitor for changes.
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I don't see any big severe weather outbreaks in the near term. We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye. Don't forget that September is preparedness month. For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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