September 25, 2011:
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Updated at 1030 AM
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Updated at 1030 AM
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: A few showers early in the evening over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Locally heavy rain possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 54-58 degree range. | Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 80% .
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain at times. A few storms could be severe (depending on instability). Below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 65-70 degree range. | Wind: South/southeast winds at 5-15 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 100%.
Sunday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rain possible. Pockets of fog. Rain ending late from west to east (rain may linger over eastern parts of the region). Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 50-55 degrees | Wind: Southwest winds early and then northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 100%.
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Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 68-73 degrees. | Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
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No big changes - the rain event is going to happen. Locally heavy rain will occur over our region. Right now I am thinking widespread 1-2" amounts with pockets of 2-4" possible (pockets of greater than 5" likely in a few spots). Not overly excited about flash flood potential because it has been fairly dry over the last month. However, with that said, there will be enough rain to cause some problems. Remember to avoid flooded roadways. The only real change in the forecast was to increase the potential for a few strong storms over the southern parts of the region.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Widespread rain will develop later tonight - locally heavy rain/thunderstorms will be possible.
Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Widespread rain will develop later tonight - locally heavy rain/thunderstorms will be possible.
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Sunday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms will cover the area. A few storms may be severe over the Missouri Bootheel, northeast Arkansas, far southern parts of western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. See the latest day one severe weather outlook graphics for details.
.Sunday night: A few storms could be severe early in the evening. Otherwise, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Here is the latest Storm Prediction map for Sunday's severe weather - the orange area is where they have placed the slight risk zone. Remember that slight risk means that some severe weather will likely occur but it is not expected to be widespread in nature. This map will be updated later tonight after 1 am and then again tomorrow at 8 am. The risk zone could change - check back in the morning for my update on Facebook.
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You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
.You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Saturday morning brought rain to most of the area. Some areas over southern Illinois and southwest Indiana picked up over an inch of rain. The rest of us experienced lesser amounts.
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The big headline continues to be the huge upper level low over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This upper level low, with a surface reflection developing along the front, will bring widespread rain to our region. Probably going to be one of the heavier and widespread events since last spring.
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Rainfall totals will be in the 1-2" range over most of our counties. There will be pockets of 2-4" of rain. If you add in the rainfall from Friday night some areas may even exceed 5 inches.
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The Storm Prediction Center has increased the chances for severe weather over our southern counties. There are questions as to just how much instability will be available. However, there will at least be some risk. Watch for an updated video on Sunday morning.
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Monday will bring a mix of sun and clouds with below normal temperatures. The longer range appears dry. Will monitor
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Temperatures will be mostly below normal through Monday - here are the charts showing the departure numbers. These maps show you how many degrees below normal temperatures will be (normal highs this time of the year are around 82 and normal lows are around 57 degrees.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here .
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Widespread rain event on tap for Saturday night into Sunday night. Please avoid flooded roadways. Rainfall totals will exceed 1" in almost all of our counties. Thunderstorms will be possible with this system - a few storms could become severe on Sunday afternoon/evening. If you plan to be on area lakes then be aware of this possibility. Winds should not be a big problem. If thunderstorms do develop then there could be a few pockets of gusty winds. Gradient winds (general wind conditions) will not be an issue.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate. This has been a concern for quite some time now. Droughts tend to creep. Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets. I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months. This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest field moisture anomaly map. Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas. The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain. You can see that the dry area has spread over the last few weeks.
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.You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.---
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1. Longer range pattern is indicating near normal temperatures. No big severe weather outbreaks are forecast. Some good news. I also looked ahead for the next two weeks and conditions appear to favor dry weather. Will monitor and update accordingly. I know a lot of farmers are working on getting their crops in from the fields.
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We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye. Don't forget that September is preparedness month. For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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