September 22, 2011:
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After a foggy start to Wednesday the clouds started to thin out a bit and portions of the area had quite a bit of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Temperatures were mild with highs in the 70s and even a few lower 80s.
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A frontal system will approach the region late tonight and on Thursday. This system will help spark a band of showers and thunderstorms - mainly from southern Illinois and Indiana south and west into Arkansas and Mississippi. This band of showers and storms will push east into our region.
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At this time I am thinking the best chance of rain in far southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be from 3 pm through the 11 pm time frame. Ending west to east. Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.40" will be the general rule. Some lightning is possible but severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday will bring cooler temperatures with morning lows in the 40s and lower 50s and afternoon highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The weekend should bring seasonable with highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 50s.
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I will be watching an upper level low pressure area over the weekend. Approaching from the north - this could mean a few more clouds and showers.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here.
.Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: in the 56-60 degree range. | Wind: Northwest wind at 5 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0% .
Thursday: Increasing cloudiness with a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Temperatures falling late in the day. Near normal to below normal temperatures.
Highs: in the 75 degree range. | Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusty winds in the afternoon. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 70%.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies with a chance for showers and thunderstorms - especially early in the night. Cooler. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 48-53 degrees | Wind: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph - gusty early. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 70% early.
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Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 68-73 degrees | Wind: North wind at 5-10 mph. Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees. Precipitation probability - 10%.
Friday night: Partly cloudy and cool. Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 52-55 degrees | Wind: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 57 degrees. Precipitation probability - 0%.
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No big changes. Tweaked wind speed a little bit for Thursday afternoon/evening.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours...
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A thunderstorm possible during the afternoon.
.Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A thunderstorm possible early.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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You can learn more about lightning safety by clicking here.
.You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above. The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map. To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: The biggest concern for the next 24 hours will be the exact timing of the precipitation on Thursday. At this time I am thinking the 3 pm through 10 or 11 pm time frame will provide the best opportunity for a period of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated.
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There will be a chance for gusty winds with the frontal system on Thursday afternoon and evening - perhaps some 20 mph wind gusts..
Otherwise no dramatic weather is in the forecast! We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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No significant threats. Rain chances on Thursday (see above) and gusty winds on Thursday afternoon and evening - possibly some gusts to 20 mph.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist. Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.
ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Here is the map for Thursday - this is the probability (chances) for at least 0.10" of rain to fall from 2 pm through 8 pm. You can see the area of rain pushing in from the south and west (then see the second map for the next time frame). Basically this is telling me that the rain chances will increase during the afternoon and evening and spread northeast and east into the area.
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Then here is the map for Thursday - this is the probability (chances) for at least 0.10" of rain to fall from 8 pm through 2 am.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate. This has been a concern for quite some time now. Droughts tend to creep. Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets. I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months. This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest crop moisture index map. Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas. The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.
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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here
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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here..
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1. Mixed forecast signals for the weekend as an upper level low pushes in from the north. Whether this will be able to spark showers is the question mark. I will monitor and update.
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I don't see any big severe weather outbreaks in the near term. We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye. Don't forget that September is preparedness month. For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
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We have a new tropical storm - named Ophelia. It is located in the Atlantic and is moving east/northeast. You can track this system by clicking here.
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Here is the current forecast track
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-sitehttp://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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