UPDATE
12 PM
The Storm Prediction Center has removed us from the slight risk for severe storms today. A few storms may still become severe but it is increasingly looking less likely.
May 6th-7th - 2012
Sunday afternoon into Monday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
The rest of Sunday afternoon - a few clouds - very warm with well above normal temperatures. Muggy. Just a small chance for a thunderstorm (30%).
Highs: Middle to upper 80s with lower 90s over parts of the area - very warm
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% - some heavy storms with hail and gusty winds - lightning.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe - especially over our northwestern counties. To check local weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.Highs: Middle to upper 80s with lower 90s over parts of the area - very warm
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% - some heavy storms with hail and gusty winds - lightning.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe - especially over our northwestern counties. To check local weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but thunderstorms can always produce locally heavier amounts.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and storms. To check local weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 76-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph turning more westerly at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - locally heavier amounts in storms
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms coming to an end - not as warm and humid as recent nights. To check local weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - thunderstorms can produce heavier amounts in localized areas.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - thunderstorms can produce heavier amounts in localized areas.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Partly cloudy and not as warm - less humid.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 74-79 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Wind: West at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Click Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
A few storms possible
Lightning is always a concern for outdoor events. Slow moving storms can also cause ponding of water on roadways and overflow of ditches.
To check local weather radar - click here
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Monitor for any watches/warnings on Sunday night into Monday evening.
To check local weather radar - click here
No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Lowered temperatures a bit on Tuesday.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Some severe thunderstorms are possible - especially the northwestern counties in the region.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday night: Some severe thunderstorms are possible - especially the northwestern counties in the region.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday: Isolated severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Monday night : Perhaps an isolated severe storms - mainly eastern counties.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Sunday night - Possible - especially western or northwestern counties
Monday - Possible
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Sunday night - Possible - especially western or northwestern counties
Monday - Possible
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Some of you woke up last night (Saturday night) to heavy rain and large hail! Large hail fell over parts of western Kentucky - from Ballard County down into Graves County. Numerous reports of hail ranging from pea size all the way up to the size of half dollars and ping pong balls.
Here is a photograph taken by Kelly Scarbrough - via Facebook - this hail fell in Graves County, KY - west of Mayfield, KY.
The big story over the coming 24 hours will be a dramatic increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms across our region. A cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Along and ahead of this front the air will be quite unstable. The front will help lift the air and spark showers and locally heavy/severe thunderstorms.
Cooler air will finally move back into the region starting on Monday night and Tuesday - a break from the heat and humidity of the recent week!
Any thunderstorms that form in this atmosphere could produce gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours. The tornado risk appears small - but not zero. The best chance for severe storms will be over our northwestern counties tonight (Sunday night) and then spreading over the rest of the area on Monday into Monday afternoon (you can sort of see that in the severe weather forecast maps posted below).
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of our region in a risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday night and/or Monday. The risk will shift east with the passage of the cold front.
Here are the outlooks for Sunday night (first graphic) and Monday. Remember that the yellow area means general thunderstorms (thunderstorms that should be below severe levels or at most isolated severe weather). The orange area represents the SLIGHT RISK zone - slight risk means you should expect a few severe weather warnings.
Right now the wind fields appear WEAK - again that means the tornado threat is low. It will be difficult for an organized severe weather outbreak to occur. More likely if severe storms form they would produce isolated reports of severe weather.
Sunday afternoon/Sunday night map first - second map is for Monday
For you weather guru's - here is the sounding for Paducah, KY on Monday late morning and early afternoon. Quite a bit of CAPE (energy). Wind fields are weak. Precipitable water is high - that means heavy downpours are possible. With the wind fields being week it should keep the severe weather threat in check - meaning widespread severe weather reports are not likely. I will monitor and update as the event unfolds on Sunday night into Monday. Check the Beau Dodson Facebook page.
Click image for the larger and easier to read view size
High temperatures for this week will start off warm on Monday - then the rest of the week will be much closer to normal temperatures for this time of the year! Say goodbye to the heat and humidity of the past week or two.
Here are the numbers
Monday first - then on into Thursday
Notice the cooling temperatures through the week.
It continues to be dry across much of our region. Yes, it is true that some of our counties picked up heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday morning. Not everyone - but some. Here is a radar grab from the Friday night storms - notice the feast or famine coloring. The scale is on the left. Some places picked up inches of rain - other places recorded nothing at all.
Click the image for full size view (again this is the Friday night into Saturday morning precipitation).
Just how dry is it? Here are some graphics that illustrate the lack of moisture in our region. .
HEADLINES: Some of you woke up last night (Saturday night) to heavy rain and large hail! Large hail fell over parts of western Kentucky - from Ballard County down into Graves County. Numerous reports of hail ranging from pea size all the way up to the size of half dollars and ping pong balls.
Here is a photograph taken by Kelly Scarbrough - via Facebook - this hail fell in Graves County, KY - west of Mayfield, KY.
The big story over the coming 24 hours will be a dramatic increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms across our region. A cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Along and ahead of this front the air will be quite unstable. The front will help lift the air and spark showers and locally heavy/severe thunderstorms.
Cooler air will finally move back into the region starting on Monday night and Tuesday - a break from the heat and humidity of the recent week!
Any thunderstorms that form in this atmosphere could produce gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, and brief heavy downpours. The tornado risk appears small - but not zero. The best chance for severe storms will be over our northwestern counties tonight (Sunday night) and then spreading over the rest of the area on Monday into Monday afternoon (you can sort of see that in the severe weather forecast maps posted below).
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of our region in a risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday night and/or Monday. The risk will shift east with the passage of the cold front.
Here are the outlooks for Sunday night (first graphic) and Monday. Remember that the yellow area means general thunderstorms (thunderstorms that should be below severe levels or at most isolated severe weather). The orange area represents the SLIGHT RISK zone - slight risk means you should expect a few severe weather warnings.
Right now the wind fields appear WEAK - again that means the tornado threat is low. It will be difficult for an organized severe weather outbreak to occur. More likely if severe storms form they would produce isolated reports of severe weather.
Sunday afternoon/Sunday night map first - second map is for Monday
Click image for the larger and easier to read view size
High temperatures for this week will start off warm on Monday - then the rest of the week will be much closer to normal temperatures for this time of the year! Say goodbye to the heat and humidity of the past week or two.
Here are the numbers
Monday first - then on into Thursday
It continues to be dry across much of our region. Yes, it is true that some of our counties picked up heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday morning. Not everyone - but some. Here is a radar grab from the Friday night storms - notice the feast or famine coloring. The scale is on the left. Some places picked up inches of rain - other places recorded nothing at all.
Click the image for full size view (again this is the Friday night into Saturday morning precipitation).
This first image shows you how much precipitation is needed to end drought conditions (note that many areas of the nation are experiencing below normal precipitation)
There were a lot of record high temperatures over the past week - some record low temperatures, as well.
Here are some graphics - first one is the map of record high temperatures - second map are the record low temperatures.
The red dots are record highs - the orange dots are record high minimum temperatures (that means it was the warmest low temperature on record)
I had quite a bit of lightning Saturday night - I took these photographs looking southwest from my back desk - these storms were in Ballard County, KY and Carlisle County, KY - they produced hail up to the size of pea to ping pong.
I am sure we will have more lightning over the coming 24 hours!
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Most of this rain will fall Sunday night into Monday evening - precipitation should end Monday evening. There will be pockets of heavier amounts in thunderstorms, as always.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Most of this rain will fall Sunday night into Monday evening - precipitation should end Monday evening. There will be pockets of heavier amounts in thunderstorms, as always.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 30th - May 5th
Event: Unsettled weather - warm to very warm
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Much above normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Below normal temperatures look more likely.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Temperatures will be cooler this week compared to last! Let's take a look at the departure maps - how much above or below normal will temperatures be on Monday into Thursday? We start off above normal on Monday - then move to more seasonable temperatures the rest of the week
We should have dry weather Tuesday into Thursday - will monitor next weekend for a disturbance. Plenty of time to monitor.
We should have dry weather Tuesday into Thursday - will monitor next weekend for a disturbance. Plenty of time to monitor.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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