Monday night and Tuesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. If you want to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms - many areas may remain dry, unfortunately
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. If you want to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms - many areas may remain dry, unfortunately Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday night: Some clouds - cooler than recent nights.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.
Wind: North at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: North at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: A few clouds - pleasant.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 84-88 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few scattered thunderstorms possible tonight/Tuesday. Lightning would be the main concern.
If you want to view radar - click here.
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If you have an outdoor event then monitor radars. Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning could occur, though, in thunderstorms.
If you want to view radar - click here.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms possible. If you want to view radar - click here.
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms possible. If you want to view radar - click here.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible. If you want to view radar - click here.
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible. If you want to view radar - click here.
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Thursday night - possible watches
Thursday night - possible watches
Friday - possible watches
Saturday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A weak frontal system will approach our region tonight and Tuesday. This could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, most areas will remain dry. For areas that do pick up some rain there could be some locally heavy downpours in thunderstorms.
The rest of the week will bring cooler temperatures - although many days will likely remain above the climatological norms.
Expect temperatures to be much cooler as we approach Friday into the weekend! Might actually feel like spring once again!
A stronger storm system will approach our region Thursday into Friday - this system will likely bring the most widespread rainfall that our region has seen in quite some time. Depending on the track of the low there could also be a threat for severe thunderstorms. Wind fields are not overly impressive - however the track of the low certainly raises a few eyebrows for at least the potential of some stronger thunderstorms.
I will monitor and update the late week thunderstorm threat over the coming days. Stay tuned for updates. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe storms. This could change over the coming days. I suspect an area will be outlined for Thursday and Friday in or near our region.
The drought continues to grow worse over many of our counties. See maps at bottom of blow post.
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HEADLINES: A weak frontal system will approach our region tonight and Tuesday. This could spark a few showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, most areas will remain dry. For areas that do pick up some rain there could be some locally heavy downpours in thunderstorms.
The rest of the week will bring cooler temperatures - although many days will likely remain above the climatological norms.
Expect temperatures to be much cooler as we approach Friday into the weekend! Might actually feel like spring once again!
A stronger storm system will approach our region Thursday into Friday - this system will likely bring the most widespread rainfall that our region has seen in quite some time. Depending on the track of the low there could also be a threat for severe thunderstorms. Wind fields are not overly impressive - however the track of the low certainly raises a few eyebrows for at least the potential of some stronger thunderstorms.
I will monitor and update the late week thunderstorm threat over the coming days. Stay tuned for updates. Right now the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe storms. This could change over the coming days. I suspect an area will be outlined for Thursday and Friday in or near our region.
The drought continues to grow worse over many of our counties. See maps at bottom of blow post.
Let's take a look at expected highs for the upcoming week - MUCH better temperatures compared to recent days.
I suspect the 90s on this map for Tuesday could be a bit overdone - upper 80s appear more likely. We will see how it goes.
First map is for Tuesday - then Wednesday-Friday - NOTE the cool down as we move through the week!
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
I suspect the 90s on this map for Tuesday could be a bit overdone - upper 80s appear more likely. We will see how it goes.
First map is for Tuesday - then Wednesday-Friday - NOTE the cool down as we move through the week!
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Scattered rainfall is possible into Tuesday afternoon - again not everyone will experience rain.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Scattered rainfall is possible into Tuesday afternoon - again not everyone will experience rain.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: May 28th-June 4th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Well we have had the thread for a bigger system at the end of May for over six weeks now - as we move into the final stretch it does appear the storm system will materialize. Right now I am expecting an area of low pressure to develop over the Ozarks and Arklatex - the low will then move northeast into the Ohio Valley.
Questions remain on the exact track of the area of low pressure. Remember that in order to see a significant threat of severe thunderstorms the low needs to pass in or north of your area. Right now the track is expected to be close to our region.
The intensity of the low is also in question - models are showing the pressure to be in the 995-1000 range as it passes close to our region.
Wind fields aren't overly impressive - instability, though, should be sufficient for at least some severe weather in or near our region. Again - most likely along and south of the warm front (which is still in question as far as its exact location).
Either way this should at the very least bring us a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hopefully most people will pick up at least a little bit of precipitation.
The two maps below are the NAM (first) and GFS (second). Both are weather models. The map is for Thursday afternoon - you can see the wound up low near our region. If this were to be the case then a warm front would stretch somewhere across eastern Missouri into Indiana and perhaps northern Kentucky. We would be near the warm sector of the storm.
NAM - above
GFS - below
Both are similar in their depiction of the lows track.
A couple of maps showing you how bad the drought has become
Questions remain on the exact track of the area of low pressure. Remember that in order to see a significant threat of severe thunderstorms the low needs to pass in or north of your area. Right now the track is expected to be close to our region.
The intensity of the low is also in question - models are showing the pressure to be in the 995-1000 range as it passes close to our region.
Wind fields aren't overly impressive - instability, though, should be sufficient for at least some severe weather in or near our region. Again - most likely along and south of the warm front (which is still in question as far as its exact location).
Either way this should at the very least bring us a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms. Hopefully most people will pick up at least a little bit of precipitation.
The two maps below are the NAM (first) and GFS (second). Both are weather models. The map is for Thursday afternoon - you can see the wound up low near our region. If this were to be the case then a warm front would stretch somewhere across eastern Missouri into Indiana and perhaps northern Kentucky. We would be near the warm sector of the storm.
NAM - above
GFS - below
Both are similar in their depiction of the lows track.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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