Your Hometown Weather: May 24th-28th: Mini-heat wave this weekend

May 24th-28th - 2012

Thursday into Monday update

This is a longer post than usual since it is a holiday weekend - be aware that temperatures will be very warm this weekend. Heat safety tips - remember to check on pets/change water bowls often/do not leave pets or children/elderly people in unattended cars.

More heat safety rules
Click here

I do not expect any headlines from this event because dew points won't be extremely high - heat advisories likely will not be issued. However, the NWS will be issuing a special weather statement to cover the upcoming heat wave.

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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Thursday: Mostly sunny and warmer. It will be windy at times. Lake wind advisory - for details click here
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 86-94 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph - winds will become gusty with gusts above 25 mph - especially in open areas and on area lakes.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday night: A few clouds and not as cool as recent nights. A chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly over parts of southeast Missouri and perhaps slipping into parts of southern Illinois.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Friday: Mostly sunny and hot. Slight chance for a thunderstorm over far northern/northwestern counties. Near record highs likely.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 88-92 degrees - locally higher temperatures. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday night: Mostly clear and warm.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot. Near record highs likely.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 92-96 degrees - locally higher not out of the question | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: South/Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday night: Mostly clear and warm.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: South at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot. Near record highs likely.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 94-98 degrees can't rule out locally higher temperatures | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: South/Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry.

Confidence in this forecast is high

Sunday night: Partly cloudy skies. Warm.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is medium

Monday: Partly cloudy and hot. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 90-95 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but storms can produce heavy amounts of rain in a short amount of time

Confidence in this forecast is medium

Monday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for showers and thunderstorms - scattered.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - 0.50" in areas that receive rain
Confidence in this forecast is medium

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warm - showers and thunderstorms possible. A few heavy storms likely..

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 88 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" but storms can produce heavy amounts of rain in a short amount of time

Confidence in this forecast is medium

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Concerns will be the heat Friday into Monday. Remember the heat safety rules. Don't live children/elderly/pets in the car. Temperatures inside of a car can rise into the 100's in just a matter of minutes.

Temperatures should be in the 90s on Friday into Monday - there will likely be some middle 90s in our local region. Unsure about upper 90s - but either way it will be hot. Use a little extra care - especially since this is our first heat wave of the season

I would not be surprised to see several record high temperatures broken over the coming days.

Can't rule out a thunderstorm during the period - this will become more likely on Monday night and Tuesday. However, some data shows a couple of storms forming between now and then. If you need to check radar - click here
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Basic heat safety rules/concerns apply for the coming days.

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The wild card in the forecast will be whether or not we see some upper 90s in our local counties on Saturday into Sunday. Can't rule it out - lower to middle 90s look almost certain. Either way - hot.
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Tweaked temperatures but no major changes in the on-going forecast.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Northwestern and northern counties have a chance for thunderstorms.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Northwestern and northern counties have a chance for thunderstorms. Mainly southeast MO/southern IL - northern and northwestern counties.

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Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No - unlikely
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Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Can't rule out a thunderstorm in the area - scattered at best. Lightning would be the main concern IF a storm forms.

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? An isolated storm will be possible. More likely on Monday night into Tuesday as a front approaches the region. Scattered thunderstorms will become more likely.

Monday night : Small chance - will monitor and update.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Tuesday: Can't rule out a severe storm - this time period needs to be monitored
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Thursday - No
Friday - No

Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - No
Monday night - Very small chance
Tuesday - Monitoring

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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: I hope everyone has a nice weekend planned. It is going to be hot - temperatures will rise well into the 90s on Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Monday. Perfect lake weather - perfect outdoor weather - just remember your basic heat safety rules. Also sun burn will likely occur - with these temperatures.

These temperatures will likely break several record high temperature records.

A small chance for storms on Thursday night and Friday - mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

The chance for precipitation will be low through Sunday night - not zero - but low. A better chance of showers and locally heavy thunderstorms will arrive on Monday night into Tuesday. This will be in response to a front approaching from the west/northwest. Right now the risk for severe storms appears low. The risk for a few pockets of very heavy downpours appears more significant - still scattered in nature. This will not break the drought. If you are fortunate enough to find yourself under one of the thunderstorms then you could pick up a quick 1/2-1" of rain - locally heavier (same as last week - feast or famine).

I will monitor Monday evening into Tuesday for a small chance for severe storms - too uncertain right now to put in the forecast.

Please have a safe holiday weekend!

High temperature maps for the Thursday - Friday - Saturday - Sunday - Monday

KEEP IN MIND THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER - Thinking is that 92-98 degree range over most of the area.

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: May 28th-June 8th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Unsettled pattern as we push into the last week of May into the first week of June - as expected! We will see if it materializes. There should be several disturbances move through the area with a chance for showers and storms. Uncertainty surrounds how widespread precipitation will be.

Otherwise the drought will continue to grow worse - not a good situation.

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Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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