Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy thunderstorms possible. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but storms can cause locally heavier rains
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a popup shower or thunderstorm. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but storms can cause locally heavier rains Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies. An isolated thunderstorm possible. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. If you need to view radar - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 10-25 mph and gusts above 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but storms can cause locally heavier rains
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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On and off thunderstorm chances and very warm temperatures into the weekend. Not everyone will get wet but some areas will pick up a heavy thunderstorm. Lightning is a concern for any outdoor events.
I would not cancel any events this weekend but I would monitor radars from time to time. If you hear thunder then head indoors.
Can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms between now and Monday - large hail and gusty winds would be the primary concern. Tornado threat appears low - but not zero.
If you need to view radar - click here.
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See above comments - lightning is the main concern for outdoor events.
Temperatures will also be well into the upper 80s into the weekend. It might feel uncomfortable with high dew points.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast.
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: A few storms could reach severe limits.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday night: A few storms could reach severe limits.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday: A few storms could reach severe limits.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible
Saturday - No
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible
Saturday - No
Sunday - Monitor
Monday - Monitor
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: You could just about read yesterdays post and get the same idea for the coming days.
On and off chances for a few thunderstorms in the region. Any storms that form in this kind of heat and humidity could produce heavy downpours, lightning, hail, and gusty winds. Low end threat for a tornado on Friday afternoon/evening.
Saturday and Saturday night will bring a few more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunday we have been out-looked (parts of the area) for a few severe thunderstorms - mainly for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Here is the severe weather outlook for the rest of today (Friday) and then Saturday. The yellow area means general thunderstorms are possible (general means mostly below severe levels). The orange area is the slight risk zone for severe storms.
Remember that a severe storm is one that produces 1" hail or larger, 58 mph winds or higher, and/or a tornado.
The heat and high dew point levels will make it fell warm and at times muggy.
Highs each day will be well into the 80s and lows at night won't get much below 70 over many of our counties.
We will have gusty southerly winds during each day - gusts above 20 mph on lakes and rivers.
I would not cancel any plans this weekend. I would suggest checking radars. There will be more dry hours than wet hours.
Here is the low temperature map for Saturday morning - followed by Saturday's highs
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HEADLINES: You could just about read yesterdays post and get the same idea for the coming days.
On and off chances for a few thunderstorms in the region. Any storms that form in this kind of heat and humidity could produce heavy downpours, lightning, hail, and gusty winds. Low end threat for a tornado on Friday afternoon/evening.
Saturday and Saturday night will bring a few more scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sunday we have been out-looked (parts of the area) for a few severe thunderstorms - mainly for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
Here is the severe weather outlook for the rest of today (Friday) and then Saturday. The yellow area means general thunderstorms are possible (general means mostly below severe levels). The orange area is the slight risk zone for severe storms.
Remember that a severe storm is one that produces 1" hail or larger, 58 mph winds or higher, and/or a tornado.
The heat and high dew point levels will make it fell warm and at times muggy.
Highs each day will be well into the 80s and lows at night won't get much below 70 over many of our counties.
We will have gusty southerly winds during each day - gusts above 20 mph on lakes and rivers.
I would not cancel any plans this weekend. I would suggest checking radars. There will be more dry hours than wet hours.
Here is the low temperature map for Saturday morning - followed by Saturday's highs
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 5 DAYS. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
This is the 5 DAY precipitation map - keep in mind that this is BROAD-BRUSHED and with this type of atmosphere there will be some areas pick up quite a bit more of rain vs other areas. Nature of the beast this time of the year.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
This is the 5 DAY precipitation map - keep in mind that this is BROAD-BRUSHED and with this type of atmosphere there will be some areas pick up quite a bit more of rain vs other areas. Nature of the beast this time of the year.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 30th - May 5th
Event: Unsettled weather - warm to very warm
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Much above normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Below normal temperatures look more likely.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Temperatures should cool off next week to more seasonable levels!
Good chance for thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.
Good chance for thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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