Tuesday night and Wednesday update
.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.
The rest of this afternoon - Warm - a chance for a few remaining showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
The rest of this afternoon - Warm - a chance for a few remaining showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies - pleasant temperatures. Spring like.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Mostly calm winds.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday: Lots of clouds - few breaks of sun later in the day - chance for a shower or thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 84-88 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A small chance for showers or thunderstorms late at night (early morning hours into early Thursday morning - this will depend on a complex of storms forming to our west. Low confidence in that complex forming.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Wind: East at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but we will have to monitor a possible thunderstorm complex early Thursday morning (late Wednesday night)
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: East at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - but we will have to monitor a possible thunderstorm complex early Thursday morning (late Wednesday night)
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Thursday: Partly sunny - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mostly during the afternoon hours - we will have to monitor Thursday morning for the thunderstorm complex over parts of the region. Again - that part of the forecast is uncertain.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 83 degrees.Wind: East at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - thunderstorms can produce locally heavier rainfall totals.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Lightning is the main concern. Severe weather threat is conditional on the track of the area of low pressure. Moisture return may be limited - higher dew points could be limited. Will monitor future data to see if I can get a better handle on the severe weather threat.
.
If you have outdoor events on Thursday then I would monitor updated forecasts.
.
The wild card in this forecast will be the track of the area of low pressure on Thursday into Friday morning. The track of the low is important because the better moisture feed will be to the south and east of the low. This is typically where the strongest storms occur. Right now it appears the low will develop and move across part of our area. Again - the exact track is the wild card.
.
.
.
Mentioned a chance for storms on Wednesday night - in the event a complex of thunderstorms form to our west/southwest on Wednesday evening. It would track into our counties - some of our counties on Thursday morning. IF it forms - that is a big IF right now. Otherwise the better chance of rain arrives later on Thursday into Thursday night.
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A few storms
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A few storms
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A chance for some storms late at night into Thursday morning - this is conditional on a complex of storms forming to our southwest on Wednesday evening. I have low confidence in this happening - will monitor..
.
Thursday: Small chance for a few severe storms - highly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor for updates. It could be the most likely area would be our southern counties - but again confidence is low.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - there will be some thunderstorms in the region - this will last into Thursday night.
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - No
Wednesday - No
Wednesday night - No
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - there will be some thunderstorms in the region - this will last into Thursday night.
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - No
Wednesday - No
Wednesday night - No
Thursday - At least a chance for a watch over parts of our region. Low confidence.
Thursday night - At least a chance for a watch over parts of our region. Low confidence.
Thursday night - At least a chance for a watch over parts of our region. Low confidence.
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
.
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
.
HEADLINES: Well - some of us picked up a little bit of rain on Tuesday - but most areas remained dry. Those who did pick up rain had some heavy downpours and lightning. A warning or two was issued for our far eastern counties.
The drought continues for the region - growing worse by the day. The good news is that I do have some rain in the forecast.
A complex of storms will approach the area from the west on Wednesday morning - this should be dying and likely won't produce too much in the way of rain. I did include some chance.
A rather complex forecast unfolds on Wednesday night into Friday morning. An area of low pressure and associated warm front and cold front will start to move into our region on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring a decent chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms - especially late on Thursday into Thursday night (a lesser chance on Thursday morning).
Questions remain on the exact track of the area of low pressure. Right now I am leaning towards the low tracking over our region - this should help keep the severe weather risk at a minimum. However, this will need to be monitored as confidence is currently low on the exact track of the area of low pressure.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region for a risk of a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday/Thursday night. They are not confident in how this unfolds - nor is the local National Weather Service Office or myself. The severe weather threat is conditional on the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates on Wednesday and Thursday.
Again - keep in mind that this outlined area is still two days away - confidence is low in the position of the outlined area. Any severe weather risk will depend on the placement and intensity of the area of low pressure.
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.25-0.75" range across our region - it is certainly possible that some areas could pick up even more. The heavier rain will depend on thunderstorms developing.
Also - there is a small chance that a complex of storms could form as early as Wednesday night to our west/southwest - this would then push east into parts of our region Thursday morning. If this does happen then it will likely have an influence on any further development later in the day.
Bottom line - a decent shot at rain on Thursday into Friday morning - perhaps the best chance for widespread rainfall in quite some time. This will at least help our drought situation a little bit. It certainly won't be enough to break the drought.
.
HEADLINES: Well - some of us picked up a little bit of rain on Tuesday - but most areas remained dry. Those who did pick up rain had some heavy downpours and lightning. A warning or two was issued for our far eastern counties.
The drought continues for the region - growing worse by the day. The good news is that I do have some rain in the forecast.
A complex of storms will approach the area from the west on Wednesday morning - this should be dying and likely won't produce too much in the way of rain. I did include some chance.
A rather complex forecast unfolds on Wednesday night into Friday morning. An area of low pressure and associated warm front and cold front will start to move into our region on Wednesday night and Thursday. This will bring a decent chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms - especially late on Thursday into Thursday night (a lesser chance on Thursday morning).
Questions remain on the exact track of the area of low pressure. Right now I am leaning towards the low tracking over our region - this should help keep the severe weather risk at a minimum. However, this will need to be monitored as confidence is currently low on the exact track of the area of low pressure.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region for a risk of a few severe thunderstorms on Thursday/Thursday night. They are not confident in how this unfolds - nor is the local National Weather Service Office or myself. The severe weather threat is conditional on the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates on Wednesday and Thursday.
Again - keep in mind that this outlined area is still two days away - confidence is low in the position of the outlined area. Any severe weather risk will depend on the placement and intensity of the area of low pressure.
Rainfall totals should be in the 0.25-0.75" range across our region - it is certainly possible that some areas could pick up even more. The heavier rain will depend on thunderstorms developing.
Also - there is a small chance that a complex of storms could form as early as Wednesday night to our west/southwest - this would then push east into parts of our region Thursday morning. If this does happen then it will likely have an influence on any further development later in the day.
Bottom line - a decent shot at rain on Thursday into Friday morning - perhaps the best chance for widespread rainfall in quite some time. This will at least help our drought situation a little bit. It certainly won't be enough to break the drought.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Let's hope we all pick up a little bit of rain from the system later this week. Seems to be our best chance in quite some time.
Most of this precipitation will fall Wednesday night (late) or more likely Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Let's hope we all pick up a little bit of rain from the system later this week. Seems to be our best chance in quite some time.
Most of this precipitation will fall Wednesday night (late) or more likely Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
.
Date Range: May 28th-June 4th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
.
1. Rain chances will come to an end on Friday.
Drought will continue - even though we may pick up some rain this week it will not be enough to solve our problems. But - at least rain is likely. We will take whatever we can get.
Here are the latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks.
Here are the 8-14 day outlooks
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment