Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: A few evening clouds - can't rule out a stray shower - most areas will remain dry. Mostly clear otherwise and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Sunny and warm. Some cumulus clouds. Some scattered thunderstorms - lightning and brief heavy rain in cells that manage to form.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 86-92 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - locally heavier in storms
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday night: Mostly clear skies and mild - warmer. A chance for a popup afternoon shower or storm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Mostly sunny - hot - some cumulus clouds - an increase in clouds late in the day (system approaching from the west/northwest). A chance for thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 89-96 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: most areas will remain dry but areas that pick up rain could receive 0.25"-0.50" - more in the heaviest slow moving storms.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns until Sunday night - Sunday night will bring a chance for some thunderstorms - perhaps lightning is the main concern. I do not think the severe threat is significant - but as always I will monitor and update accordingly.
Keep in mind there could be a few storms on Saturday into Saturday night - as well. Lightning being the main concern.
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No major concerns through Sunday morning - monitor radars later on Sunday for a few storms moving in from the west.
Keep in mind there could be a few storms on Saturday into Saturday night - as well. Lightning being the main concern.
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The wild card in this forecast will be whether or not there will be a few thunderstorms .
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No major changes in this update!
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Sunday night - No
Sunday night - No
Monday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Warm - that will be the word for the next couple of days. Temperatures will climb into the 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. I don't believe we have to be concerned about rain chances through Sunday afternoon. At least nothing widespread - can't rule out a few stray showers in the heat of the day - but widespread rain will likely hold off until Sunday night and Monday.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Saturday into Monday - you can see a large warm area over the region.
You can see the departures below - HOW MUCH ABOVE normal will temperatures be? First map is for Saturday and second may is for Sunday - we will be above normal each day.
And Sunday (below)
Our next storm system approaches the region on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A cold front will push into the Ohio Valley from the west/northwest. Along and ahead of this front there will be a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Right now the thinking is that the severe weather risk will remain at a low level - if any at all. I will monitor and update if I see any changes in that part of the forecast - as always.
Rainfall totals will vary - likely ranging from 0.25-0.75" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms. The biggest question is just how widespread the rain will be - whether some areas pick up very little precipitation at all. I will fine tune this part of the forecast on Saturday afternoon.
Bottom line is if you have plans for Sunday evening then check radars for a few thunderstorms moving in from the west/northwest.
Here is what the NAM and GFS are showing for Sunday evening around 5-7 pm. The pink and purple area is the area where precipitation may be occurring.
Images are from www.wright-weather.com and you should click the image to view in real size.
NAM Model first - you can see precipitation breaking out along the front.
GFS Model Below - both models are fairly similar with breaking out precipitation.
Let's take a look at the new drought numbers - updated on Thursday. Conditions in our region continue to deteriorate. Now I do realize that some of you have experienced rain over the last few weeks - others are bone dry. It does vary across the region.
Let's take a look at the soil moisture anomalies and then the map for how much precipitation is needed to end the drought (between 5 and 10 inches for some of us)
Parts of our region need 9" of rain to end the drought - of course we do not want to see 9" of rain all at once! It would be nice to pick up some soaking rains over a period of a few weeks.
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HEADLINES: Warm - that will be the word for the next couple of days. Temperatures will climb into the 80s on both Saturday and Sunday. I don't believe we have to be concerned about rain chances through Sunday afternoon. At least nothing widespread - can't rule out a few stray showers in the heat of the day - but widespread rain will likely hold off until Sunday night and Monday.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Saturday into Monday - you can see a large warm area over the region.
Our next storm system approaches the region on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A cold front will push into the Ohio Valley from the west/northwest. Along and ahead of this front there will be a band of showers and thunderstorms.
Right now the thinking is that the severe weather risk will remain at a low level - if any at all. I will monitor and update if I see any changes in that part of the forecast - as always.
Rainfall totals will vary - likely ranging from 0.25-0.75" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms. The biggest question is just how widespread the rain will be - whether some areas pick up very little precipitation at all. I will fine tune this part of the forecast on Saturday afternoon.
Bottom line is if you have plans for Sunday evening then check radars for a few thunderstorms moving in from the west/northwest.
Here is what the NAM and GFS are showing for Sunday evening around 5-7 pm. The pink and purple area is the area where precipitation may be occurring.
Images are from www.wright-weather.com and you should click the image to view in real size.
NAM Model first - you can see precipitation breaking out along the front.
GFS Model Below - both models are fairly similar with breaking out precipitation.
Let's take a look at the new drought numbers - updated on Thursday. Conditions in our region continue to deteriorate. Now I do realize that some of you have experienced rain over the last few weeks - others are bone dry. It does vary across the region.
Let's take a look at the soil moisture anomalies and then the map for how much precipitation is needed to end the drought (between 5 and 10 inches for some of us)
Parts of our region need 9" of rain to end the drought - of course we do not want to see 9" of rain all at once! It would be nice to pick up some soaking rains over a period of a few weeks.
When we zoom in on Kentucky and the Midwest you can see some of our counties are in severe drought (actually has expanded some over the last week)
The short term drought maps also show the extent of the drought quite well - click image for real view size
The drought forecast:
The seasonal forecasts have been rather poor over the last few months. Remember that this spring was forecast to be wet - it has not been wet for many of us.
With that said - it does look a bit more active as we push into the end of May and beginning of June. Hopefully we will pick up some much needed rainfall.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
No real concern for precipitation through Sunday morning - there is a hint of precipitation in the KY/TN region - this is from a slight chance for a popup shower/storm on Saturday afternoon/Saturday night.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
No real concern for precipitation through Sunday morning - there is a hint of precipitation in the KY/TN region - this is from a slight chance for a popup shower/storm on Saturday afternoon/Saturday night.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: May 24th-June 2nd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue through at least Monday and perhaps Tuesday - there are different opinions on how quickly the rain moves out. I would plan on a few showers/storms to be around through Monday evening.
The longer range forecast will focus on monitoring a series of storm systems that will produce showers and thunderstorms over the central United States - the bulk of this will remain west of us early in the period (through Thursday/Friday).
I expect to see numerous days with severe weather risks over parts of the Midwest next week into the following week - several outbreak events - with tornadoes - are almost certain. I would not rule out a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, as well - for portions of the middle United States - with a focus on South Dakota over to Minnesota - Iowa - Nebraska - Kansas - Oklahoma - Texas - and perhaps some areas further east.
The question for our region will be whether or not any of this will push far enough east to be a concern for our counties. This will need to be monitored. I have been thinking it would become more active as we push towards the end of May into the first part of June. Monitor for updates - hopefully we can get some rain into the region.
The 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day forecast for temperatures
The above maps indicate that odds favor above normal temperatures for the near and extended period.
The longer range forecast will focus on monitoring a series of storm systems that will produce showers and thunderstorms over the central United States - the bulk of this will remain west of us early in the period (through Thursday/Friday).
I expect to see numerous days with severe weather risks over parts of the Midwest next week into the following week - several outbreak events - with tornadoes - are almost certain. I would not rule out a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, as well - for portions of the middle United States - with a focus on South Dakota over to Minnesota - Iowa - Nebraska - Kansas - Oklahoma - Texas - and perhaps some areas further east.
The question for our region will be whether or not any of this will push far enough east to be a concern for our counties. This will need to be monitored. I have been thinking it would become more active as we push towards the end of May into the first part of June. Monitor for updates - hopefully we can get some rain into the region.
The 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day forecast for temperatures
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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