Wednesday evening into Thursday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy skies late - a small chance for morning showers and thunderstorms (after 4 am)
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is low
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Thursday: Mostly cloudy skies - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong/severe - the severe weather threat is HIGHLY dependent on instability developing and the track of the area of low pressure. Monitor updates on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page - local media - weather radio.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" locally heavier in storms and where storms train.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday night: A chance for showers and storms - mainly early. Then a slight chance for showers after midnight - much cooler.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Wind: West at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - locally heavier in storms early in the evening
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - locally heavier in storms early in the evening
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: A mix of sun and clouds - slight chance for a shower - much cooler. Windy at times.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 70 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.Wind: West - northwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The main concern will be a round or two of thunderstorms on Thursday late morning into Thursday evening.
A few of the storms could be strong to severe. Monitor radars and updates. Appears the "greatest" risk for severe storms would be over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee - perhaps into southern Indiana. Although all of our area has some risk for a few severe storms. There is some uncertainty on the placement of the severe weather threat. Monitor for updates.
Bottom line
Watch or monitor for updates late tonight and on Thursday.
Monitor for severe weather watches and warnings
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Wild card in this forecast is the exact placement of the severe weather threat on Thursday and the extent of severe weather. Right now it looks like a few severe storms will be possible. .
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Small chance for a few severe storms late tonight and early Thursday morning - hail would be the main concern if the complex can hold together into our region.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms possible late tonight and tomorrow morning
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Wednesday night: Small chance for a few severe storms late tonight and early Thursday morning - hail would be the main concern if the complex can hold together into our region.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms possible late tonight and tomorrow morning
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Thursday: Severe storms are possible - a few could produce hail and high winds - can't rule out a tornado - the greatest chance for severe storms would be from southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee - see the outlined map area in my discussion part of the blog. However, there will at least be a chance for severe storms over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, as well. Monitor for updates.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night : Any severe threat should come to an end on Thursday evening - pushing eastward into Thursday night.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Small chance - mainly southwest counties in Missouri and Arkansas
Thursday - A severe weather watch is likely on Thursday
Thursday night - perhaps a watch early in the evening - then it will push eastward
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Small chance - mainly southwest counties in Missouri and Arkansas
Thursday - A severe weather watch is likely on Thursday
Thursday night - perhaps a watch early in the evening - then it will push eastward
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: The focus on today's discussion will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night into Thursday night.
There will be two periods of concern
The first period of concern will be Thursday morning - likely between 4 am and 9 am. A dying complex of storms on Thursday morning will be pushing through parts of Missouri and Arkansas. I don't think this complex will make it very far east in our region - perhaps even dying out before it reaches the Mississippi River.
The storms will be stronger to our west and should be weakening as they move into our area. Can't rule out a few strong/severe storms over parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas - early Thursday morning. This will be the first chance for precipitation.
This complex of storms will likely leave a lot of cloud debris over the area on Thursday morning into parts of the afternoon hours. This could help keep instability down - somewhat. However, any breaks in the clouds will enhance instability. Remember the more instability the better chance for stronger storms.
Here are a couple of forecast maps indicating cloud cover - the blue area represents clouds - the purple area represents some sunshine. You can see there will be quite a few clouds. This should help keep instability down a bit.
This image is from www.wright-weather.com
The first image is for around 7 am on Thursday morning. You can see a mix of clouds and sun in our region. The second image is for Thursday afternoon - quite a few clouds with some breaks of sunshine.
Click images for real view size
A second round of showers and thunderstorms will form during the late morning hours on Thursday into Thursday afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe - hail and high winds would be the main concern. Can't rule out a tornado threat - but this is dependent on the track of the area of low pressure and instability.
Here are a few maps showing what the WRF models are indicating for Thursday afternoon - this would be between 12 pm and 5 pm - storms have already formed by that time. Appears late morning into early afternoon would be when storms form.
Click image for real size view - these two images are from www.wright-weather.com
These are two different model runs of the WRF - both show about the same thing - scattered storms over our counties on Thursday afternoon. Some of them possibly strong/severe.
This is another version of the WRF Model - indicating something similar
Here is the SPC run of the WRF model for Thursday afternoon - it also shows a lot of thunderstorms
Click image for real view size.
Wind fields are not impressive - but should be sufficient for some severe storms.
The greatest risk of severe storms is over parts of far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. The area inside the yellow outline is where the Storm Prediction Center believes the best chance for severe storms will be. The area outside of the yellow area has a chance for a few severe storms, as well.
This map will be updated around 1 or 2 am on Thursday morning - then again around 7-8 am on Thursday morning. It could shift (already has shifted a few times). Seeing as how it is "close" to our region - it should be monitored.
Bottom line.
HEADLINES: The focus on today's discussion will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday night into Thursday night.
There will be two periods of concern
The first period of concern will be Thursday morning - likely between 4 am and 9 am. A dying complex of storms on Thursday morning will be pushing through parts of Missouri and Arkansas. I don't think this complex will make it very far east in our region - perhaps even dying out before it reaches the Mississippi River.
The storms will be stronger to our west and should be weakening as they move into our area. Can't rule out a few strong/severe storms over parts of southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas - early Thursday morning. This will be the first chance for precipitation.
This complex of storms will likely leave a lot of cloud debris over the area on Thursday morning into parts of the afternoon hours. This could help keep instability down - somewhat. However, any breaks in the clouds will enhance instability. Remember the more instability the better chance for stronger storms.
Here are a couple of forecast maps indicating cloud cover - the blue area represents clouds - the purple area represents some sunshine. You can see there will be quite a few clouds. This should help keep instability down a bit.
This image is from www.wright-weather.com
The first image is for around 7 am on Thursday morning. You can see a mix of clouds and sun in our region. The second image is for Thursday afternoon - quite a few clouds with some breaks of sunshine.
Click images for real view size
A second round of showers and thunderstorms will form during the late morning hours on Thursday into Thursday afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe - hail and high winds would be the main concern. Can't rule out a tornado threat - but this is dependent on the track of the area of low pressure and instability.
Here are a few maps showing what the WRF models are indicating for Thursday afternoon - this would be between 12 pm and 5 pm - storms have already formed by that time. Appears late morning into early afternoon would be when storms form.
Click image for real size view - these two images are from www.wright-weather.com
These are two different model runs of the WRF - both show about the same thing - scattered storms over our counties on Thursday afternoon. Some of them possibly strong/severe.
This is another version of the WRF Model - indicating something similar
Here is the SPC run of the WRF model for Thursday afternoon - it also shows a lot of thunderstorms
Click image for real view size.
Wind fields are not impressive - but should be sufficient for some severe storms.
The greatest risk of severe storms is over parts of far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southern Indiana into Kentucky and Tennessee. The area inside the yellow outline is where the Storm Prediction Center believes the best chance for severe storms will be. The area outside of the yellow area has a chance for a few severe storms, as well.
This map will be updated around 1 or 2 am on Thursday morning - then again around 7-8 am on Thursday morning. It could shift (already has shifted a few times). Seeing as how it is "close" to our region - it should be monitored.
Thunderstorms are likely late on Thursday morning into Thursday evening - a few of the storms could be severe with large hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes. Lightning and heavy downpours, as well. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local media, and other sources for information in the event a few watches and warnings are issued.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. No long range discussion today. Focus is on Thursdays rain chances.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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