Wednesday evening into Friday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in a thunderstorm - most areas will likely remain dry
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in a thunderstorm - most areas will likely remain dry
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: East winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Remainder of Wednesday afternoon: Partly cloudy skies - a showers/thunderstorms. Warm. Radars can be viewed by clicking here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 80s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in a thunderstorm - most areas will likely remain dry
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies - a few lingering showers/thunderstorms. Seasonable temperatures. Radars can be viewed by clicking here
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in a thunderstorm - most areas will likely remain dry
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday: Mostly sunny skies - some afternoon cumulus clouds possible.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: East winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Thursday night: Mostly clear skies - pleasant.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: East winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly sunny skies with some afternoon cumulus clouds possible.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 84-88 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Mostly clear skies.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.
Wind: South at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: South at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: Mostly sunny and warm - some cumulus clouds possible.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 84-86 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.Wind: South at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few thunderstorms this afternoon - Wednesday afternoon. Lightning is the main concern.
Radars can be viewed by clicking here
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Monitor radar for thunderstorms if you have outdoor events. Although severe weather is not forecast there could be some lightning.
Radars can be viewed by clicking here
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms during the evening hours. Small hail and lightning is the main concern - brief heavy rain. Most of the region may actually remain dry.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms during the evening hours. Small hail and lightning is the main concern - brief heavy rain. Most of the region may actually remain dry.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A front is located near our region this afternoon (Wednesday) - along and ahead of the front there have been a few showers and thunderstorms. The main concern with any storms this afternoon (Wednesday) will be brief heavy rain and lightning. I do not believe severe weather is a concern. I can't 100% rule out a report of small hail.
The most likely area to see thunderstorms would be along the Ohio River and southward - perhaps just north of the river and southward - close to that area. Owensboro, KY to Poplar Bluff, MO - draw a line there and southward.
Radars can be viewed by clicking here
Whatever showers and thunderstorms are left over in the region will quickly depart this evening. This will leave us with a few sunny days ahead - some afternoon cumulus clouds will be possible. Can't rule out some fog in areas that picked up recent rainfall.
Temperatures will be warm into the weekend - high temperatures will mostly be in the 80s - overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and into the 60s. Not bad for May.
Here are the high temperatures for Thursday into Saturday - normal to above normal temperatures. Not bad, though, for May!
I do not see any active severe weather for our region right on through Saturday and Sunday. That is the good news.
The bad news is some of us desperately need rain - we won't be seeing much of that either.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Sunday night into Monday. Still several days to monitor and update that part of the forecast. A more active pattern may develop as we push closer to the end of the month.
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HEADLINES: A front is located near our region this afternoon (Wednesday) - along and ahead of the front there have been a few showers and thunderstorms. The main concern with any storms this afternoon (Wednesday) will be brief heavy rain and lightning. I do not believe severe weather is a concern. I can't 100% rule out a report of small hail.
The most likely area to see thunderstorms would be along the Ohio River and southward - perhaps just north of the river and southward - close to that area. Owensboro, KY to Poplar Bluff, MO - draw a line there and southward.
Radars can be viewed by clicking here
Whatever showers and thunderstorms are left over in the region will quickly depart this evening. This will leave us with a few sunny days ahead - some afternoon cumulus clouds will be possible. Can't rule out some fog in areas that picked up recent rainfall.
Temperatures will be warm into the weekend - high temperatures will mostly be in the 80s - overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and into the 60s. Not bad for May.
Here are the high temperatures for Thursday into Saturday - normal to above normal temperatures. Not bad, though, for May!
I do not see any active severe weather for our region right on through Saturday and Sunday. That is the good news.
The bad news is some of us desperately need rain - we won't be seeing much of that either.
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Sunday night into Monday. Still several days to monitor and update that part of the forecast. A more active pattern may develop as we push closer to the end of the month.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: May 24th-June 2nd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The next chance for rain will arrive around Monday of next week - a system will push into the region from the west. There will likely be enough instability for some thunderstorms - severe weather does not appear to be a big concern. I will monitor and update accordingly.
I still believe a more active pattern will develop towards the end of the month and perhaps into the first part of June. I have been thinking a bigger event would be possible in that time frame and we have had that in the extended outlook for quite some time now. Let's monitor the potential and see where it goes.
We have been in a lull for quite awhile now - don't forget that this time of the year can be active and volatile. Although we have not had much severe weather over the last six weeks - that could change as we push further into May and the first part of June. Don't get too lulled by the lack of weather.
Temperatures will mostly be above normal through the weekend.
I still believe a more active pattern will develop towards the end of the month and perhaps into the first part of June. I have been thinking a bigger event would be possible in that time frame and we have had that in the extended outlook for quite some time now. Let's monitor the potential and see where it goes.
We have been in a lull for quite awhile now - don't forget that this time of the year can be active and volatile. Although we have not had much severe weather over the last six weeks - that could change as we push further into May and the first part of June. Don't get too lulled by the lack of weather.
Temperatures will mostly be above normal through the weekend.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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