Tuesday night and Wednesday update
.
For more frequent updates check visit my weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy and warm.
Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday: Warm and humid - windy - a mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a popup shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around middle to upper 80s degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 15-25 mph - gusts will be over 30 mph - boaters use care on lakes and rivers
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Wednesday night: Mostly clear skies. Warm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Wind: Southerly at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Thursday: Windy - mostly sunny and warm. Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 10-25 mph and gusts over 30 mph - boaters use care
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: Most areas will remain dry.
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Boaters: Winds each day - into Friday - will gust above 25 mph - boaters use care.
.
Boaters use caution with gusty winds
.
The wild card in this forecast is whether or not a few counties might hit 90 degrees over the next couple of days - either way it is going to be very warm.
We should be mostly capped on Wednesday and Thursday - that means it will be difficult for thunderstorms to form. Can't rule out a stray - but it appears better chances will arrive on Friday into Monday (for thunderstorms).
.
.
No major changes in this update!
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Early evening storms possible in a few spots
.
.
Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Early evening storms possible in a few spots
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Unlikely
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Isolated
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - Monitor
Saturday -Monitor
Sunday - Monitor
.
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
.
HEADLINES: WELCOME TO SUMMER!!
Very warm temperatures for this time of the year will continue over the coming days. Along with the warm weather will come strong winds from the south/southwest - winds will be in the 15-25 mph range during the daytime with gusts above 30 mph. Boaters should use care on area lakes and rivers.
Isolated thunderstorms may once again form this afternoon (Tuesday and Tuesday evening) - especially over parts of Illinois and Indiana - northwest Kentucky. If storms do form then they could produce large hail and high winds - isolated tornado possible.
Radars - click here
Watches/warnings - click here
Rain chances will be less over the next two days (Wednesday/Thursday) than recent days. We may see activity pick back up on Friday into Monday. Some storms could be heavy.
We will monitor the severe weather threat. Instability will be high on Friday into Sunday - can't rule out some severe storms. Heavy rain and lightning may be the primary concern (but with this type of atmosphere it will need to be monitored).
Here are the temperatures for the next few days - very warm for this time of the year. Our weird year of weather continues unabated.
Check out the extended part of the forecast - some UGLY dew point temperatures being forecast for the region - it will feel more like Louisiana around here than southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Low temperatures for Tuesday morning followed by Wednesday afternoon highs (it will be quite warm)
Here are the Wednesday morning lows (below) - followed by the highs on Thursday
Here are the Friday morning lows and the Friday afternoon high temperatures
Heat index values for Wednesday - the high dew points will make it feel muggy outside .
HEADLINES: WELCOME TO SUMMER!!
Very warm temperatures for this time of the year will continue over the coming days. Along with the warm weather will come strong winds from the south/southwest - winds will be in the 15-25 mph range during the daytime with gusts above 30 mph. Boaters should use care on area lakes and rivers.
Isolated thunderstorms may once again form this afternoon (Tuesday and Tuesday evening) - especially over parts of Illinois and Indiana - northwest Kentucky. If storms do form then they could produce large hail and high winds - isolated tornado possible.
Radars - click here
Watches/warnings - click here
Rain chances will be less over the next two days (Wednesday/Thursday) than recent days. We may see activity pick back up on Friday into Monday. Some storms could be heavy.
We will monitor the severe weather threat. Instability will be high on Friday into Sunday - can't rule out some severe storms. Heavy rain and lightning may be the primary concern (but with this type of atmosphere it will need to be monitored).
Here are the temperatures for the next few days - very warm for this time of the year. Our weird year of weather continues unabated.
Check out the extended part of the forecast - some UGLY dew point temperatures being forecast for the region - it will feel more like Louisiana around here than southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Low temperatures for Tuesday morning followed by Wednesday afternoon highs (it will be quite warm)
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Storms will be SCATTERED the rest of this afternoon and Wednesday - this map is probably overdone as MOST areas will remain dry. Better chances of rain as we move towards Friday into Monday. Keep that in mind.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Storms will be SCATTERED the rest of this afternoon and Wednesday - this map is probably overdone as MOST areas will remain dry. Better chances of rain as we move towards Friday into Monday. Keep that in mind.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
.
Date Range: April 30th - May 5th
Event: Unsettled weather - warm to very warm
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Much above normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
.
Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle .
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
.
1. Unsettled pattern will redevelop on Friday into Monday (perhaps into the middle of next week) - it appears we may have additional shower and thunderstorm chances in the area. Some storms will be heavy.
Check out the CAPE values on Friday into the weekend - lot of energy in the atmosphere. Low of moisture in the atmosphere. This leads me to believe that there could be some thunderstorm complexes form at night. These typically produce a lot of lightning and heavy rain. The exact track of the complexes will have to be monitored as we push into the weekend - keep that in mind, though, if you have outdoor plans.
Don't cancel any plans - just monitor for updates.
Here are the CAPE values - remember CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere that storms can tap into.
Click images for the full size view - also these images below are from my favorite source of model data - www.wright-weather.com
Friday - Saturday - Sunday maps.
Check out the CAPE values on Friday into the weekend - lot of energy in the atmosphere. Low of moisture in the atmosphere. This leads me to believe that there could be some thunderstorm complexes form at night. These typically produce a lot of lightning and heavy rain. The exact track of the complexes will have to be monitored as we push into the weekend - keep that in mind, though, if you have outdoor plans.
Don't cancel any plans - just monitor for updates.
Here are the CAPE values - remember CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere that storms can tap into.
Click images for the full size view - also these images below are from my favorite source of model data - www.wright-weather.com
Friday - Saturday - Sunday maps.
Now check out these ugly dew point maps - remember that once we hit 60 degrees the air mass starts to feel a bit humid - once you reach 70 we are talking about, as Jim Rasor would say, AIR YOU WEAR. Muggy conditions in the coming days.
Here are the dew point maps
Click map for full view - this first map is for Friday afternoon
Here is Friday evening
Saturday
Sunday - moist air mass
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Here are the dew point maps
Click map for full view - this first map is for Friday afternoon
Here is Friday evening
Saturday
Sunday - moist air mass
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment