January 6, 2011: Winter weather in our future? Big questions remain...

January 6, 2011

No changes in short term forecasts...

Big questions remain on the Sunday into Sunday night event and the Monday into Tuesday event.  I will make a first forecast tonight.  I said I would start to bite on solutions tonight and tomorrow morning.  We will see how it goes.

Active and challenging forecast period ahead of us for the next several weeks.

Stay tuned!


January 6, 2011

11 AM Update

For those who want a serious snow event - I keep looking at the cards.  I just can't seem to muster one up.

Now - don't get me wrong.  There are several snow flurry and light snow events in the forecast.  One of those will begin tonight and last into Saturday.  Can't rule out a dusting for some of our immediate local counties.  Perhaps a heavier dusting as you go towards Evansville.  Central and eastern Kentucky have the best shot at accumulating snow.

Then - as you know - all eyes turn towards the big winter storm for Sunday and Sunday night.  I have said that I would trust the models beginning tonight and tomorrow morning.  I believe that is when we will have a solid sampling of the system in question.

Until then - all of the data (for the most part) indicates that the heavy snow threat on Sunday into Sunday night would be to our south.  Portions of western Tennessee could see several inches of snow.

Then on Sunday night (late) into Tuesday - another system moves in from the northwest.  This should spread another band of light snow over our region.  I would not be surprised - if the system tracks right - if portions of our area see 1-3" from that event.

Remember - we are dealing with two storms.  If we start seeing snow on Sunday night - that does not mean it is from the southern system.  The southern system needs to track quite a bit further north in order to impact southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  This system is still in play.  Again - I will have more confidence tonight and tomorrow morning as to how both of these systems unfold.

Track is key.

Track is key.

One more time :) - track is key - to our potential snow over the next 4-6 day period.

Either way - cold weather is locked in for the short term.  We could see single digits next week if we do have some snow on the ground.

I will update frequently over the coming days - probably 2 or 3 times a day.

So - as I always say - stay tuned!

January 6, 2011

Extremely complicated pattern for the coming 10 day period with several chances for precipitation.  Big questions remain on storm tracks and precipitation type.  I will update the blog a few times today with the latest information. 

Let's keep in mind that the exact track of the areas of low pressure and energy will determine if we receive any precipitation at all from the weekend event and the event early next week. 

New video has been posted for January 6th - Transportation Cabinet snowfall forecasts included in the video update.  .http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Light flurries possible later today and tonight - more to the south.  Chance for flurries and snow showers Thursday night into Friday.


Thursday...A few clouds. Highs around 40. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday Night...Becoming cloudy with a chance for flurries or snow showers - especially over our eastern counties. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday...A mix of sun and clouds.  Flurries or snow showers possible - windy. Highs around 34 degrees.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy - a few flurries.   Lows around 20.

Saturday - Partly Cloudy - a few flurries or snow showers scattered around.  High temperature around 28 degrees.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.

Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.


You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here

Biggest concern over the coming 48 hour period will be flurries and light snow especially to our east - no real changes in previous forecast thoughts.

All eyes then turn to two winter weather events - one on Sunday into Monday and another for Monday night into Tuesday.

I have updated the video concerning both systems.

The track of the low pressure area will be key to our weather.  If the low is further north than forecast then we can expect snow on Sunday into Sunday night - right now most of the data keeps the low too far south.  However, I don't believe I will be confident in any given forecast until tonight or Friday morning.

I will update frequently as more data arrives.

Another system should spread some light snow into the region on Monday and Tuesday.  Some light accumulation is possible.

Bitterly cold air is expected next week with teens and single digits for morning lows towards mid-week.

Stay tuned for updates...

If you would like to be added to the severe weather email list then please email me and request to be added - I usually send out an email during significant weather events. Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
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