January 4, 2011:
1 PM Update
VERY tough forecast the next ten days with several systems approaching our region. The big question is will they produce anything significant other than flurries/snow showers and cold air.
Let's pick this apart
We have a system that will approach our region on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. We have been talking about this system for about the last 5 days or so. I have gone back and forth with the question of how to handle the moisture supply and whether or not this disturbance can actually drop some light snow over Kentucky - and our region.
The picture is no more clear today than it was yesterday. There is quite a bit of dry air to overcome. Read my comments below (early morning post) on that subject.
There are a couple of models that forecasters use to predict weather - on top of satellite, radar, and other observations. The two "main" models (I say main models because there are actually a bunch more we can use) are showing anywhere from 1-3" of snow near the KY/TN border to nothing at all. That is quite the range of possibilities!
I am NOT a fan of probabilities for snow. It either is or is not going to snow. I am not sure what probabilities does for me as a forecaster other than cover my butt in the event it doesn't snow! Now - that is not saying that probabilities shouldn't be used. I am just not a fan.
However, that leaves me with a big tug of war on how to handle this forecast.
For the time being - the biggest question is a major winter storm that could impact our region on Saturday into Monday. There are major differences in opinions on this system.
The major computer models are indicating a significant winter storm potential. I have been mentioning this potential for the last several days - but had thought it would be a few days later.
There are questions on precipitation type and track of the area of low pressure. This will be key to sensible weather in our region. There are also questions on timing. Most of the data has sped this system up - so instead of a Sunday night into Tuesday event - it is starting to look like it could be a Saturday into Monday event. Pretty big difference in timing. Just one more part of the forecast that will need to be tweaked as we move forward.
Will stick with my previous thoughts on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night - increase in clouds and a chance for flurries. Light snow chances would be higher along the KY/TN border or in Tennessee.
Will continue to monitor - if there were to be a change in the Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening forecast it would have to be to increase the snow chances. For now - I believe for the most part that the dry air will win out. I will watch and see how the local NWS Offices handle this in their next update, as well.
Thursday night into Friday - light snow and snow squalls will spread into the region from the north. A clipper system will push through portions of Illinois and Indiana and then shift into Kentucky. The best snow chances are going to be east/northeast of the track of the low. This continues to mainly be a snow event for areas to our east/northeast. Portions of central and eastern Kentucky could see several inches of snow. No real change in that forecast.
I do think our local counties are starting to have a better chance of at least a little accumulating snow from the Thursday night into Friday system (especially the eastern part of our region). Accumulations would be anywhere from a dusting to perhaps an inch or two.
Here is what the HPC is thinking - this is the probability of 1" or greater of snow (Thursday into Friday system).
IF the track of the low is further southwest than forecast then I will have to update the forecast as far as and potential snowfall accumulations.
Transportation districts should prepare for some light snow on Wednesday night and then a better chance of snow across Kentucky on Thursday night into Friday night.
We will then have to deal with a potential major weather event on Saturday into Monday. Track of this storm is still in question.
Watch for updates...
- Beau
January 4, 2011:
I will update later today on any snow chances for Wednesday night (right now I am not overly bullish on the idea). Also - stay tuned for some potential events later in the week and into next week.
I am starting to post video briefings. You can find those by clicking the link below.
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm1 PM Update
VERY tough forecast the next ten days with several systems approaching our region. The big question is will they produce anything significant other than flurries/snow showers and cold air.
Let's pick this apart
We have a system that will approach our region on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. We have been talking about this system for about the last 5 days or so. I have gone back and forth with the question of how to handle the moisture supply and whether or not this disturbance can actually drop some light snow over Kentucky - and our region.
The picture is no more clear today than it was yesterday. There is quite a bit of dry air to overcome. Read my comments below (early morning post) on that subject.
There are a couple of models that forecasters use to predict weather - on top of satellite, radar, and other observations. The two "main" models (I say main models because there are actually a bunch more we can use) are showing anywhere from 1-3" of snow near the KY/TN border to nothing at all. That is quite the range of possibilities!
I am NOT a fan of probabilities for snow. It either is or is not going to snow. I am not sure what probabilities does for me as a forecaster other than cover my butt in the event it doesn't snow! Now - that is not saying that probabilities shouldn't be used. I am just not a fan.
However, that leaves me with a big tug of war on how to handle this forecast.
For the time being - the biggest question is a major winter storm that could impact our region on Saturday into Monday. There are major differences in opinions on this system.
The major computer models are indicating a significant winter storm potential. I have been mentioning this potential for the last several days - but had thought it would be a few days later.
There are questions on precipitation type and track of the area of low pressure. This will be key to sensible weather in our region. There are also questions on timing. Most of the data has sped this system up - so instead of a Sunday night into Tuesday event - it is starting to look like it could be a Saturday into Monday event. Pretty big difference in timing. Just one more part of the forecast that will need to be tweaked as we move forward.
Will stick with my previous thoughts on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night - increase in clouds and a chance for flurries. Light snow chances would be higher along the KY/TN border or in Tennessee.
Will continue to monitor - if there were to be a change in the Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening forecast it would have to be to increase the snow chances. For now - I believe for the most part that the dry air will win out. I will watch and see how the local NWS Offices handle this in their next update, as well.
Thursday night into Friday - light snow and snow squalls will spread into the region from the north. A clipper system will push through portions of Illinois and Indiana and then shift into Kentucky. The best snow chances are going to be east/northeast of the track of the low. This continues to mainly be a snow event for areas to our east/northeast. Portions of central and eastern Kentucky could see several inches of snow. No real change in that forecast.
I do think our local counties are starting to have a better chance of at least a little accumulating snow from the Thursday night into Friday system (especially the eastern part of our region). Accumulations would be anywhere from a dusting to perhaps an inch or two.
Here is what the HPC is thinking - this is the probability of 1" or greater of snow (Thursday into Friday system).
IF the track of the low is further southwest than forecast then I will have to update the forecast as far as and potential snowfall accumulations.
Transportation districts should prepare for some light snow on Wednesday night and then a better chance of snow across Kentucky on Thursday night into Friday night.
We will then have to deal with a potential major weather event on Saturday into Monday. Track of this storm is still in question.
Watch for updates...
- Beau
January 4, 2011:
I will update later today on any snow chances for Wednesday night (right now I am not overly bullish on the idea). Also - stay tuned for some potential events later in the week and into next week.
I am starting to post video briefings. You can find those by clicking the link below.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Watching a chance for light snow or flurries Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Low confidence.
Forecast:
Tuesday...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Lows in the lupper teens and lower 20s. North winds 5 mph in the evening shifting to the northeast after midnight.
Wednesday...Partly sunny. Highs in the 30s.
Wednesday night - Cloudy. A few flurries possible. Chilly. Low temperature around 25
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here
Well - does it snow Wednesday evening and Wednesday night or not? There are mixed signals on this subject. I had snow in the forecast, as you know, but then I removed those chances. Now some data indicates that there will be enough lift to bring some light snow across portions of our region - especially southern portions.
I am not overly optimistic on the potential. I will mention flurries - for now. Will update if need be.
There is a lot of dry air to overcome. That basically means that it can be snowing above us and the dry air causes everything to evaportate before it actually reaches the surface. This can ruin many a forecast (and has in the past).
A stronger cold front will approach the region at the end of the week. Flurries and snow showers will be possible along and behind this front. The big story continues to be the cold air the will push into the region over the next 2 weeks.
Best chance of accumulating snow from the late week system would be over central and eastern Kentucky.
If you would like to be added to the severe weather email list then please email me and request to be added - I usually send out an email during significant weather events. Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
-----------------
You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here
Well - does it snow Wednesday evening and Wednesday night or not? There are mixed signals on this subject. I had snow in the forecast, as you know, but then I removed those chances. Now some data indicates that there will be enough lift to bring some light snow across portions of our region - especially southern portions.
I am not overly optimistic on the potential. I will mention flurries - for now. Will update if need be.
There is a lot of dry air to overcome. That basically means that it can be snowing above us and the dry air causes everything to evaportate before it actually reaches the surface. This can ruin many a forecast (and has in the past).
A stronger cold front will approach the region at the end of the week. Flurries and snow showers will be possible along and behind this front. The big story continues to be the cold air the will push into the region over the next 2 weeks.
Best chance of accumulating snow from the late week system would be over central and eastern Kentucky.
If you would like to be added to the severe weather email list then please email me and request to be added - I usually send out an email during significant weather events. Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
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