January 15, 2011: Cloudy and cold weekend - precip chances Monday into Tuesday

January 15, 2011

5 PM Update

No real changes in the forecast.

Temperatures busted today - it was MUCH warmer than expected.  Paducah hit 49 degrees!  That was a full 8-10 degrees warmer than expected.  That doesn't happen very often.

Appears the precipitation will hold off until Monday morning - it may start as a light mixture if sleet and snow/freezing rain.  Light.

Precipitation will change to all rain during the day on Monday into Monday night - then may change back to some light snow on Tuesday or Tuesday evening.  Again - light if anything at all.

Watching another storm for Wednesday night into Thursday - could bring some snow to the area.  EC Model is showing 1-3".  Long way off and plenty of time to keep an eye on that system.

Here is the latest HPC Freezing Rain Outlook - you can see that they are hinting at some light freezing rain over our area on Monday morning.  This is a probability map - meaning it shows the probability of any freezing rain occurring.  Chances are even higher north of our region.  If you have travel plans on Monday then you might check ahead as far as road conditions.

DOWN THE ROAD...

And for you winter storm fans - DOWN the road - this is the storm for later this week.  EC and Canadian are both showing a decent snowstorm.  However, as always - I caution - anything past day 3 in this pattern is suspect.  Something I will be watching in the coming days.

Here is the Canadian model - the pink/blue area is precipitation.  Some of this is rain and some of this is snow.  Click images for larger views.

January 15, 2011

Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER

I am now doing video weather briefings
January 15th Video - http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson Weather) - Twitter is under Beau Dodson

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Cold weather

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:  No precipitation expected through Saturday afternoon.


Forecast:

Saturday - Increasing clouds. High temperatures around 38-42 degrees.

Saturday Night - Cloudy.  Patches of fog possible.  Low temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

Sunday - Mostly cloudy. High temperatures in the middle 30s.

Sunday Night - Cloudy with a slight chance of precipitation towards Monday morning. Lows in the upper 20s.

Monday - A chance for a mixture of light precipitation - changing to all rain. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Monday night - A chance for light rain - possibly changing to light snow late.  Lows in the lower to middle 30s.

Tuesday - Cloudy.  A chance for light snow showers.  High temperatures in the lower 30s.

Next chance of snow arrives on Wednesday night or Thursday.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here.

Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

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I am starting to have more confidence in the forecast for the coming days.  The last few days have brought more questions than answers as far as timing of the precipitation and type of precip.  However, I believe everyone is starting to come to a consensus on both the timing and precipitation type.

The best chance for precipitation will begin on Monday.  Depending on the exact time of day that the precipitation begins will help determine whether we see any frozen precipitation. I will continue to fine tune the forecast as we move forward.

The precipitation is expected to remain light.  Regardless of precipitation type.

Temperatures should warm enough on Monday to change everything over to rain.  Colder air will then filter into the area on Monday night and Tuesday.  If there is any precipitation left over then it would likely change to light snow.

No accumulations are currently forecast.

I will continue to monitor storm track and intensity.  I will update the blog around 10 am today and again later this afternoon.

Hints of another chance of snow on Wednesday night into Thursday night.  Still some time to watch that system.

You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here 

- Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

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