January 27, 2011: Cool days - Friday and Saturday won't be too bad

January 27, 2011

7 PM Update

Light snow and mixed precipitation is moving into northern and northeastern Kentucky.  I am expecting around 1/2 - 1" over some of our northeast districts.

Weather Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Previous update below...


January 27, 2011

Morning update - 11 AM

First off - anyone who tells you exactly what it is going to do Sunday through next Wednesday is doing nothing more than guessing.  There is way too much disagreement in the data to talk certainties this far off.  Those that do talk certainties will likely be flipping and flopping on their forecast during the coming days. And nobody likes flip-flopping - unless you like pancakes!





















I like to ramp up - not down.  We had to ramp down once this winter and that was because the storm system weakened more than expected.  I do not like to ramp down.  I try to head into an event with a heads up for everyone - then increase the tone as the event becomes a bit more clear - and then finally start pulling the trigger on the Dodson Snowstorm Rating Scale and confidence levels - or the ice storm scale - depending on the event.

We will treat this event the same - I have been telling you about the potential for over a week now.  Now we will start to fine tune the forecast and fine tune it even more in the days to come.

Watching a system for Sunday night into next Wednesday - I have been talking about this system for over a week now - it is now starting to show up on the actual weather maps.

Big questions remain on the track - there will be an event.  The question is what type of weather is this going to bring to our region.  Some of the data keeps it far enough south that we are clipped by snow.  Other data shows a decent amount of freezing rain, sleet, and snow for our region.

There are a couple of solutions that are warmer vs colder.

Bottom line - stay tuned - our storm is starting to come into focus and there will be updates through the weekend as to how or if this will impact our region.

Saturday will be nice.  Highs well into the 40s.  Enjoy Saturday - been awhile since we have had a nice day show up on the weekend!

Let's take a quick look at the Canadian - if this were to verify then we would be looking at a major winter storm in our region.  This is just one data set - there are different opinions on this.

The overall pattern "does favor" a major event.  However, we have been in a favorable pattern for big events for awhile now.  And - there have been several big events - just not over our immediate local counties.  They have tended to go south of us.

Will this one be a big hit for our region?

Canadian Model - this shows a deep low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley early next week with heavy snow, sleet, and ice over our region and severe thunderstorms for the southlands.

I caution everyone to remember that models are not gospel.  They change - it is difficult enough to forecast snow and ice a day in advance let alone four or five days in advance.

The idea I want to leave you with is that there is some potential for an event next week - where it tracks and what type of sensible weather it brings to our region?  I don't know - at this point. 

Click images for a larger view

















































To go along with this potential winter storm - more cold air will be moving into the region.  Yet another blast from the north.




















The above map is the temperature chart for next Tuesday - via the GFS from www.wright-weather.com

COLD!  Once again

Stay tuned

- Beau

January 27, 2011:

Good morning everyone.  I posted the snowfall totals on my video briefing this morning.  All in all - not too bad.  You can check those out by watching the video.

Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER

I am now doing video weather briefings
January 27th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm


Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Snow coming to an end over our eastern and southern counties. 

Forecast:

Thursday - Partly sunny with highs in the lower 40s.

Thursday night - Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.  A few snow flurries over the northern and northeastern portions of the area.  Lows in the middle 20s.  Areas with snow on the ground will be colder.

Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the lower to middle 40s.  Areas with snow on the ground may be a bit cooler.

Friday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.

Saturday - Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.




Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here

Winter Weather Radar is up and running
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.
 
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As this system winds down we will be watching a weak system for tonight.  Flurries possible over the northern and northeast part of the region.

I have been talking about a storm system for Around January 30-February 2nd for about a week now.  I still believe there could be some sort of event in this time frame.

Still too soon to make a call on rain or snow - perhaps both.  Stay tuned!


Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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