January 31, 2011:
This event continues to unfold - I am still forecasting Kentucky to remain mostly rain. It may change to a mix or snow at the very end with little accumulation.
Portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri will have everything from freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain - depending on your location. Please check your local forecast here - insert your zip code
Anyone with travel plans into the winter storm zone should consider cancelling their plans. The NWS and other emergency agencies are asking people to not travel into these areas.
Portions of these states may be shut down by this winter storm.
I am starting to post video briefings. The newest video can be viewed by clicking on the link below
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson Weather) - Twitter, as well.
If you would like to be added to the severe weather email list then please email me and request to be added
I usually send out an email during significant weather events.
Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Winter storm conditions for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Windy conditions for the entire region with falling temperatures on Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Check your local zone forecast for your local county.
Conditions will vary greatly from one county to the next in our region. You can enter your zip code for your local forecast on the link below
http://weatherobservatory.com/hw3/
Forecast:
I can't do a city by city forecast because it will vary so much from one county to the next county. Generally most of Kentucky should be mostly rain with this event. Far southern Illinois as well (the river counties). A few counties west and north of there will be a mix of precipitation.
Monday-Wednesday The forecast will vary from county to county - click here and put your zip code in for your forecast.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for the region can be viewed by clicking here. Enter your zip code or city and state (YOU MUST INCLUDE A COMMA AFTER YOUR CITY) Example: Vienna, Illinois
Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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See previous discussion and video for detailed information on the winter storm...
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
January 30, 2011: Major winter storm forming for portions of the central U.S.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Different parts of our area will experience different forms of precipitation from this event. Our southeast counties may experience thunderstorms and our northwest counties may experience ice accumulations large enough to bring down power lines and trees. This will be a tricky forecast and there is no room for error.
Note that the most damaging part of this storm is currently forecast to remain just north and west of the Paducah/Metropolis area. Areas to our north and west will be hit hard by this historic event.
Anyone with questions can email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Note that at this time most of the State of Kentucky is expecting rain. Rain may change to a period of snow at the end of the event. This is highly dependent on the track of the storm. If the storm tracks further east then more of Kentucky will be impacted by freezing rain and sleet. Stay tuned for updates - see sources below.
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A large and dangerous winter storm is developing over the southwest United States. This storm will track northeast into our region over the coming days.
Portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana will be completely shut down by this storm. Some areas will experience prolonged power outages that may last several days or weeks. Major damage is possible to trees and power lines over portions of the above mentioned areas.
Ice accumulations greater than 1" will be possible in some counties with strong winds. This would equal a category 4 or 5 ice storm. The highest level possible.
Ice Storm Scale http://weatherobservatory.com/icestorm-scale.htm
This storm has the potential to be equal to some of the blizzards of the late 1970s over portions of the central United States into the Great Lakes.
Snowfall in some areas will be measured in feet. It is not out of the question that portions of Missouri and Illinois-Indiana receive 1-2 feet of snow and locally more. With high winds this would mean snowdrifts of 4-8 feet in some areas with 10' or greater drifts in open-rural areas.
Blizzard watches have now been issued for portions of northern Illinois - additional blizzard watches and warnings will likely be issued as this storm unfolds.
Scattered light precipitation will begin over our southwestern counties late tonight and Monday morning. This precipitation will shift north and east through the day. Precipitation will become more widespread on Monday night and increase into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Various forms of precipitation will occur with this storm - some areas will see rain changing to freezing rain and sleet and then back to rain and then back to freezing rain and sleet. Some of our counties will experience only rain until the end of the storm when rain may change to a period of light snow (late Tuesday night into Wednesday).
This makes for an extremely difficult forecast. The difference from one county to the next could be significant.
At this time western Kentucky is expected to remain mostly rain until the end of the event. Rain is forecast to change to snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Some light accumulations are possible.
Far southern Illinois will be on the line of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain. Please check the local zip code forecast for updates - it is possible that the borderline counties will not be known until hours before the event.
There is zero room for error in this forecast. If this storm deviates from the current track forecast then adjustments will need to be made to the watches and warning area.
You can check your local city zip code forecast - click here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/hw3/
You can track this winter storm on radar by clicking here
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
I am updating the Facebook page constantly with new information
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
The blog will also be updated regularly
http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/
or for those on blocked computers
http://www.stormreports.org/beaudodsonweather.htm
Video updates - next video will be posted around 10 pm tonight
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Our region will be very close to an extremely tight temperature gradient boundary. This means that portions of the area may be in the 20s and other parts of the region will be in the 60s.
Those on the cold side of this storm system will experience a prolonged sleet and freezing rain event.
A significant and potentially destructive ice storm is likely to occur over portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
At this time the National Weather Service believes the most damaging ice potential will occur over portions of southwest Missouri into the St Louis area and then into central Indiana.
This will include portions of our region - most likely our western and northwestern/northern counties.
There are still uncertainties as to the exact track of the area of low pressure. If forecasts are wrong and the cold air pushes further south and east than forecast then a significant and damaging ice storm will likely occur over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If the storm track is further west than forecast than more of us will experience just a plain old cold rain with little concern for ice or snow.
Again - I can't say it enough - this is a tricky forecast and some adjustments may occur in the track of this storm.
At this time the forecast is for Kentucky to remain mostly rain. Northern Kentucky - near the Indiana border - may experience a period of freezing rain. However, this is not for certain - just yet.
Winter storm watches have been issued for a large portion of the central United States - you can view all the watches and warnings by clicking here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps
Paducah Area
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has moved the winter storm watch further east and south. This morning the watch did not include southeast Missouri or southern Illinois. Now it does. Additional updates to this watch area may be necessary - again depending on storm track.
This is a fluid situation. Forecasts will continue to be tweaked and fine tuned over the coming 24-36 hours.
Anyone with travel plans northward on Monday afternoon into Thursday should reconsider their travel plans.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser P
revious update below
January 30, 2011
2 PM Update
The Paducah, KY NWS has added a row or two of counties to the winter storm watch. This will cover portions of southern IL and southeast MO - the counties we have been talking about for awhile now.
Some ice accumulation is possible Monday night into Tuesday night. The main concern will be slick ro
ads. Ice accumulation is expected to be heavier as you go north and west.
Track of this storm is KEY to sensible weather - there could be quite a difference from one county to the next as to what actually ends up falling from the sky. Rain vs sleet vs freezing rain vs snow.
Stay tuned for updates...
Latest watches/warnings
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Beau
Previous update
January 30, 2011
9 AM Update
No changes other than starting to fine tune the forecast down to the county level
I am thinking most of far southern IL and western KY will be just about all rain. No real changes on those thoughts.
The latest data takes the low pretty far north and west. This means a warmer solution with possible thunderstorms in west KY. This also means we should be able shave off some more of the southeast MO and southern IL counties from the highest threat area.
My forecast concern remains highest for the areas from Poplar Bluff, MO to Farmington, MO and then up to Mt Vernon, Illinois and then east of there into Indiana.
I am thinking rainfall totals will be in the 0.75"-1.50" range over our region. We need the rain - so this is good news.
Can't rule out some light frozen mix on Sunday night late and Monday over the region - most likely over our western and northern counties.
Here is the latest NAM snowfall map - this could be a crippling type event for portions of MO, IL, IN, and Ohio. Very high snow totals with strong winds. Also some freezing rain will likely occur - enough to cause damage to trees and power lines.
The map below is the NAM snowfall forecast. You can see that it is quite impressive and has shifted a little bit north and west. This seems to be the trend. A bigger storm will usually move further west and north.
Here is my updated map of the area most threatened by this storm. If the storm were to shift a little bit further east and south then this would need to be updated. However, as we draw closer to the event we should be able to continue to fine tune the forecast.
I may be a couple of counties too far north in central Indiana with the risk concern. Portions of central and southern Indiana may also have some freezing rain. So - that area shaded in red may need to be a bit further south.
January 30, 2011
Expensive and dangerous winter storm developing from Oklahoma into Ohio and Michigan...
Widespread heavy snow could cause sections of these states to shut down...
Significant ice accumulations could cause substantial damage to power lines and trees...
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Highest concern area - click for larger view - a shift in the storm track will cause this shaded area to have to be adjusted west or east. Highest concern area - click for larger view
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
My next update will be around 11 am Sunday morning
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER - click on the link and hit like at the top of the Facebook page. Then you will be subscribed.
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 30th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for mixed precipitation over some of our counties tonight and Monday - changing to rain and then possibly changing back to sleet, freezing rain, and snow on Tuesday. There will be major differences from one county to the next as to precipitation type. Please listen to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates.
Forecast:
Sunday - More clouds than sun. A boundary will be placed across our region - temperatures will range from the 20s over the northern part of the area and in the 40s across the middle and southern part of our region.
Sunday Night - Cloudy with a slight chance for freezing rain, sleet, and rain - depending on what county you live in. Please check your local zip code and city forecast (see below)
Monday -Cloudy with a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and rain. Again this will vary from one county to the next in our region. Colder temps over our northern counties vs southern counties.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here. You can put your zip code in at the top for your specific zone forecast. I encourage you to do that because there will be a wide variety of precipitation types over our region in the coming days. One county to the next will likely not be the same forecast.
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Different parts of our area will experience different forms of precipitation from this event. Our southeast counties may experience thunderstorms and our northwest counties may experience ice accumulations large enough to bring down power lines and trees. This will be a tricky forecast and there is no room for error.
Note that the most damaging part of this storm is currently forecast to remain just north and west of the Paducah/Metropolis area. Areas to our north and west will be hit hard by this historic event.
Anyone with questions can email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Note that at this time most of the State of Kentucky is expecting rain. Rain may change to a period of snow at the end of the event. This is highly dependent on the track of the storm. If the storm tracks further east then more of Kentucky will be impacted by freezing rain and sleet. Stay tuned for updates - see sources below.
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A large and dangerous winter storm is developing over the southwest United States. This storm will track northeast into our region over the coming days.
Portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana will be completely shut down by this storm. Some areas will experience prolonged power outages that may last several days or weeks. Major damage is possible to trees and power lines over portions of the above mentioned areas.
Ice accumulations greater than 1" will be possible in some counties with strong winds. This would equal a category 4 or 5 ice storm. The highest level possible.
Ice Storm Scale http://weatherobservatory.com/icestorm-scale.htm
This storm has the potential to be equal to some of the blizzards of the late 1970s over portions of the central United States into the Great Lakes.
Snowfall in some areas will be measured in feet. It is not out of the question that portions of Missouri and Illinois-Indiana receive 1-2 feet of snow and locally more. With high winds this would mean snowdrifts of 4-8 feet in some areas with 10' or greater drifts in open-rural areas.
Blizzard watches have now been issued for portions of northern Illinois - additional blizzard watches and warnings will likely be issued as this storm unfolds.
Scattered light precipitation will begin over our southwestern counties late tonight and Monday morning. This precipitation will shift north and east through the day. Precipitation will become more widespread on Monday night and increase into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Various forms of precipitation will occur with this storm - some areas will see rain changing to freezing rain and sleet and then back to rain and then back to freezing rain and sleet. Some of our counties will experience only rain until the end of the storm when rain may change to a period of light snow (late Tuesday night into Wednesday).
This makes for an extremely difficult forecast. The difference from one county to the next could be significant.
At this time western Kentucky is expected to remain mostly rain until the end of the event. Rain is forecast to change to snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Some light accumulations are possible.
Far southern Illinois will be on the line of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain. Please check the local zip code forecast for updates - it is possible that the borderline counties will not be known until hours before the event.
There is zero room for error in this forecast. If this storm deviates from the current track forecast then adjustments will need to be made to the watches and warning area.
You can check your local city zip code forecast - click here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/hw3/
You can track this winter storm on radar by clicking here
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
I am updating the Facebook page constantly with new information
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
The blog will also be updated regularly
http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/
or for those on blocked computers
http://www.stormreports.org/beaudodsonweather.htm
Video updates - next video will be posted around 10 pm tonight
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Our region will be very close to an extremely tight temperature gradient boundary. This means that portions of the area may be in the 20s and other parts of the region will be in the 60s.
Those on the cold side of this storm system will experience a prolonged sleet and freezing rain event.
A significant and potentially destructive ice storm is likely to occur over portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
At this time the National Weather Service believes the most damaging ice potential will occur over portions of southwest Missouri into the St Louis area and then into central Indiana.
This will include portions of our region - most likely our western and northwestern/northern counties.
There are still uncertainties as to the exact track of the area of low pressure. If forecasts are wrong and the cold air pushes further south and east than forecast then a significant and damaging ice storm will likely occur over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If the storm track is further west than forecast than more of us will experience just a plain old cold rain with little concern for ice or snow.
Again - I can't say it enough - this is a tricky forecast and some adjustments may occur in the track of this storm.
At this time the forecast is for Kentucky to remain mostly rain. Northern Kentucky - near the Indiana border - may experience a period of freezing rain. However, this is not for certain - just yet.
Winter storm watches have been issued for a large portion of the central United States - you can view all the watches and warnings by clicking here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps
Paducah Area
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has moved the winter storm watch further east and south. This morning the watch did not include southeast Missouri or southern Illinois. Now it does. Additional updates to this watch area may be necessary - again depending on storm track.
This is a fluid situation. Forecasts will continue to be tweaked and fine tuned over the coming 24-36 hours.
Anyone with travel plans northward on Monday afternoon into Thursday should reconsider their travel plans.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser P
revious update below
January 30, 2011
2 PM Update
The Paducah, KY NWS has added a row or two of counties to the winter storm watch. This will cover portions of southern IL and southeast MO - the counties we have been talking about for awhile now.
Some ice accumulation is possible Monday night into Tuesday night. The main concern will be slick ro
ads. Ice accumulation is expected to be heavier as you go north and west.
Track of this storm is KEY to sensible weather - there could be quite a difference from one county to the next as to what actually ends up falling from the sky. Rain vs sleet vs freezing rain vs snow.
Stay tuned for updates...
Latest watches/warnings
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Beau
Previous update
January 30, 2011
9 AM Update
No changes other than starting to fine tune the forecast down to the county level
I am thinking most of far southern IL and western KY will be just about all rain. No real changes on those thoughts.
The latest data takes the low pretty far north and west. This means a warmer solution with possible thunderstorms in west KY. This also means we should be able shave off some more of the southeast MO and southern IL counties from the highest threat area.
My forecast concern remains highest for the areas from Poplar Bluff, MO to Farmington, MO and then up to Mt Vernon, Illinois and then east of there into Indiana.
I am thinking rainfall totals will be in the 0.75"-1.50" range over our region. We need the rain - so this is good news.
Can't rule out some light frozen mix on Sunday night late and Monday over the region - most likely over our western and northern counties.
Here is the latest NAM snowfall map - this could be a crippling type event for portions of MO, IL, IN, and Ohio. Very high snow totals with strong winds. Also some freezing rain will likely occur - enough to cause damage to trees and power lines.
The map below is the NAM snowfall forecast. You can see that it is quite impressive and has shifted a little bit north and west. This seems to be the trend. A bigger storm will usually move further west and north.
Here is my updated map of the area most threatened by this storm. If the storm were to shift a little bit further east and south then this would need to be updated. However, as we draw closer to the event we should be able to continue to fine tune the forecast.
I may be a couple of counties too far north in central Indiana with the risk concern. Portions of central and southern Indiana may also have some freezing rain. So - that area shaded in red may need to be a bit further south.
January 30, 2011
Expensive and dangerous winter storm developing from Oklahoma into Ohio and Michigan...
Widespread heavy snow could cause sections of these states to shut down...
Significant ice accumulations could cause substantial damage to power lines and trees...
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Highest concern area - click for larger view - a shift in the storm track will cause this shaded area to have to be adjusted west or east. Highest concern area - click for larger view
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
My next update will be around 11 am Sunday morning
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER - click on the link and hit like at the top of the Facebook page. Then you will be subscribed.
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 30th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Scattered precipitation may start to form later tonight.
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Scattered precipitation may start to form later tonight.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for mixed precipitation over some of our counties tonight and Monday - changing to rain and then possibly changing back to sleet, freezing rain, and snow on Tuesday. There will be major differences from one county to the next as to precipitation type. Please listen to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates.
The potential exists for a dangerous/deadly winter storm over portions of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
Forecast:
Sunday - More clouds than sun. A boundary will be placed across our region - temperatures will range from the 20s over the northern part of the area and in the 40s across the middle and southern part of our region.
Sunday Night - Cloudy with a slight chance for freezing rain, sleet, and rain - depending on what county you live in. Please check your local zip code and city forecast (see below)
Monday -Cloudy with a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and rain. Again this will vary from one county to the next in our region. Colder temps over our northern counties vs southern counties.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here. You can put your zip code in at the top for your specific zone forecast. I encourage you to do that because there will be a wide variety of precipitation types over our region in the coming days. One county to the next will likely not be the same forecast.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
We are tracking a major winter storm that will move into the central United States over the coming 24-48 hours.
This storm will spread everything from severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley to near blizzard conditions over portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
There will be a wide range of weather conditions in our local area - please see the video update.
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Winter storm watches and warnings will likely be issued for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Areas to the north and west will likely have freezing rain, sleet, and snow - our eastern and southeast counties will likely remain mostly rain.
Significant accumulations of ice and snow are likely over portions of our region - especially the western and northern counties.
This storm has the potential to shut down portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. If you have travel plans to the north and west over the upcoming few days then please check road conditions and current watches/warnings.
I will update the blog around 11 am on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.
If this storm tracks further south and east then it will have serious implications on what type of precipitation occurs in our region. If it tracks further north and west then more of our region will experience rain and thunderstorms.
Heavy precipitation is forecast over a large area of the United States. Rainfall totals of 1-2" will likely occur over our region and much of Tennessee and Kentucky. This could cause some flash flooding.
Dynamic storm system
Stay tuned...
This storm will spread everything from severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley to near blizzard conditions over portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
There will be a wide range of weather conditions in our local area - please see the video update.
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Winter storm watches and warnings will likely be issued for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Areas to the north and west will likely have freezing rain, sleet, and snow - our eastern and southeast counties will likely remain mostly rain.
Significant accumulations of ice and snow are likely over portions of our region - especially the western and northern counties.
This storm has the potential to shut down portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. If you have travel plans to the north and west over the upcoming few days then please check road conditions and current watches/warnings.
I will update the blog around 11 am on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.
If this storm tracks further south and east then it will have serious implications on what type of precipitation occurs in our region. If it tracks further north and west then more of our region will experience rain and thunderstorms.
Heavy precipitation is forecast over a large area of the United States. Rainfall totals of 1-2" will likely occur over our region and much of Tennessee and Kentucky. This could cause some flash flooding.
Dynamic storm system
Stay tuned...
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
January 29, 2011: Nice Saturday - preparing for next weeks storm...
January 29, 2011
2 PM UPDATE
Please read carefully and note that these are my first thoughts on how this storm will unfold.
Please remember that ANY change in the track of this winter storm will have major implications on the sensible weather conditions.
Please NOTE the areas of highest concern.
My Facebook Account has moved to BEAU DODSON WEATHER - simply put that into the Facebook search bar - I have been updated that constantly.
Winter Weather Radar can be viewed on the Weather Observatory page
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/
Also video briefings here (updated around 9-11 pm each night)
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
January 29, 2011
Winter Storm Update...
A dangerous and significant winter storm will threaten portions of the central United States on Sunday night through Wednesday.
The peak of this storm will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
My current highest concern area will stretch from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to just north of Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Mt Vernon, Illinois and areas north and west of there and also into portions of Indiana and Ohio.
These areas may experience significant ice and snow accumulations. Extended power outages will be possible from downed power lines and tree limbs if the ice accumulates as much as some of the data indicates.
AT THIS TIME - it appears enough warm air will move into western Kentucky to keep us mostly rain on Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, if the storm were to shift south and east then we would have to deal with the chance for freezing rain and sleet. It is still a bit early to determine this.
Northern Kentucky will likely have the highest risk for freezing rain and sleet. Southern and eastern Kentucky may have pockets of freezing rain and sleet changing to rain. Again - a bit early to pin this down.
Residents of northern Kentucky - Louisville area over to Cincinnati, Ohio may have to deal with freezing rain and sleet.
There are still questions as to the exact track of this winter storm and the intensity.
Please review your emergency preparedness plans. Extended power outages are possible - especially over portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and possibly into northern Kentucky.
I am not confident enough in the storm track to pin down which counties will be most impacted by this winter storm.
Again - AT THIS TIME - it appears the most likely area for significant accumulations of freezing rain and ice will be over portions of Missouri into Illinois and Indiana - perhaps our northern and western counties.
HOWEVER, the difference between one county and the next county could be significant. Similar to past winter storms in our region - example being the 2008 ice storm where some counties had all rain - some counties had all ice - and some counties received all snow. One county to the next made a significant difference in what type of weather occurred.
I have spent a considerable amount of time reviewing all of the data today. It appears that an area of low pressure will form over Texas on Sunday and Sunday night and move into the Tennessee Valley on Monday night into Tuesday night. This storm will have an abundant amount of moisture. All modes of precipitation will be possible - starting on Sunday night into Monday (light and scattered precipitation). This will include a mix of freezing rain and sleet/snow over our region - perhaps changing to all rain.
This precipitation - if frozen - could cause some travel problems. There remain some questions as to how much precipitation (although all the data indicates light precipitation) will occur on Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Please check the latest local forecast for the most up to date information.
The intensity and coverage of the precipitation will increase dramatically on Tuesday into Tuesday night. This is the time period when significant accumulations of sleet, freezing rain - ice, and snow will be possible over some of our counties. Other portions of the area will likely be all rain and even a risk for thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms may also be embedded in the freezing rain, sleet, and snow areas. Thundersnow will be possible in some areas with significant accumulations. This would most likely occur over parts of south central and southeast Missouri into portions of southern and central Illinois. See the above mentioned outlined area. Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - and areas north and west of there.
If the current data verifies then snowfall accumulations in excess of 8-10 inches will be possible over portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Most likely areas for these heavier totals would be further north and west of our immediate local area. St Louis, Missouri into central Illinois into Chicago may experience significant travel problems on Monday night into Tuesday night.
This is a fluid weather situation and still developing. Local NWS Offices and meteorologists are working hard to pin point what areas will be most impacted. Please stay tuned to the blog and other sources of weather information for the most up to to date data.
I am sure there will be some changes in the forecast over the coming 48 hours.
Winter storm watches/warnings and ice storm warnings will likely be necessary over a large area of the central United States - including portions of our region.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser
Previous update below...
January 29, 2011
2 PM Update
I am amazed at some of the weather map images I am looking at this afternoon. Having a hard time believing
some of the solutions. They are showing what appears to be an historic snowstorm for portions of the Missouri Valle into Illinois. Heavy ice, as well for some counties.
Some of the numbers being spit out by the data are incredible - 12-20 inches of snow in some areas.
I continue to look over all of the data. This will be an extremely difficult forecast for our local counties.
Leaning towards warmer for west Kentucky - but it is still not certain.
Ice is likely over portions of northern Kentucky - changing to rain at some point later on Tuesday into Wednesday morning before changing back to sleet and snow.
Southeast Missouri could be mostly rain in the Bootheel and far southeast Missouri and then a significant ice storm over portions of southeast Missouri - say closer to Poplar Bluff to St Louis - Farmington perhaps. Sleet and snow in that region, as well.
Southern Illinois - northern part could see heavy snow and ice and then rain over the far southern counties.
A few counties might make all the difference between a crippling ice storm and just plain old cold rain.
Going to be a tough forecast in the coming days - stay tuned.
- Beau
Previous discussion below...
January 29, 2011
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
9 AM Update
Amazing! This is an image grab of the morning NAM - this would be an historic or near historic storm for portions of the central United States.
This solution is quite warm for our region and would even introduce severe thunderstorm chances for portions of the region. Especially the Tennessee Valley.
This map shows a deep area of low pressure over northeast Arkansas and Western Tennessee on Tuesday.
Very heavy snow would likely fall across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan. More to our north and northwest. Also heavy sleet and freezing rain would be possible over portions of the same states.
I am starting to lean more towards a warm solution for much of our region - there may be some precipitation break out as early as Sunday night and Monday - this could be a mixture. Same for Monday night - then warmer air would advance into our region (portions of our region) on Tuesday. Any frozen precipitation would then change to rain and possibly thunderstorms.
This storm is still 4 days away - that is a long time in the weather world. Track of this storm will be key to our sensible weather.
NAM Model from this morning - this image depicts a powerful storm! The second map is the 850 mb wind fields. THIS is why I said the last few days that it is totally rediculous for anyone to try and give specific forecasts on this storm - county forecasts for snow and ice 5 days out? That just doesn't work. You will flip and flop - flip and flop in your forecast.
January 29, 2011
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
My next update will be around 11 am Saturday morning
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 29th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Will be watching for some scattered precipitation late on Sunday into Sunday night.
Forecast:
Saturday - Pick weather day of the week! Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Saturday Night - Becoming cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s over the northern part of our region and lower 30s over the southern part of the region. A boundary will cut across our region with stark temperature contrasts across that boundary.
Sunday - More clouds than sun. A boundary will be placed across our region - temperatures will range from the 20s over the northern part of the area and in the 30s across the middle and southern part of our region.
We will start to think about introducing precipitation chances on Sunday evening.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
2 PM UPDATE
Please read carefully and note that these are my first thoughts on how this storm will unfold.
Please remember that ANY change in the track of this winter storm will have major implications on the sensible weather conditions.
Please NOTE the areas of highest concern.
My Facebook Account has moved to BEAU DODSON WEATHER - simply put that into the Facebook search bar - I have been updated that constantly.
Winter Weather Radar can be viewed on the Weather Observatory page
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/
Also video briefings here (updated around 9-11 pm each night)
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
January 29, 2011
Winter Storm Update...
A dangerous and significant winter storm will threaten portions of the central United States on Sunday night through Wednesday.
The peak of this storm will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
My current highest concern area will stretch from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to just north of Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Mt Vernon, Illinois and areas north and west of there and also into portions of Indiana and Ohio.
These areas may experience significant ice and snow accumulations. Extended power outages will be possible from downed power lines and tree limbs if the ice accumulates as much as some of the data indicates.
AT THIS TIME - it appears enough warm air will move into western Kentucky to keep us mostly rain on Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, if the storm were to shift south and east then we would have to deal with the chance for freezing rain and sleet. It is still a bit early to determine this.
Northern Kentucky will likely have the highest risk for freezing rain and sleet. Southern and eastern Kentucky may have pockets of freezing rain and sleet changing to rain. Again - a bit early to pin this down.
Residents of northern Kentucky - Louisville area over to Cincinnati, Ohio may have to deal with freezing rain and sleet.
There are still questions as to the exact track of this winter storm and the intensity.
Please review your emergency preparedness plans. Extended power outages are possible - especially over portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and possibly into northern Kentucky.
I am not confident enough in the storm track to pin down which counties will be most impacted by this winter storm.
Again - AT THIS TIME - it appears the most likely area for significant accumulations of freezing rain and ice will be over portions of Missouri into Illinois and Indiana - perhaps our northern and western counties.
HOWEVER, the difference between one county and the next county could be significant. Similar to past winter storms in our region - example being the 2008 ice storm where some counties had all rain - some counties had all ice - and some counties received all snow. One county to the next made a significant difference in what type of weather occurred.
I have spent a considerable amount of time reviewing all of the data today. It appears that an area of low pressure will form over Texas on Sunday and Sunday night and move into the Tennessee Valley on Monday night into Tuesday night. This storm will have an abundant amount of moisture. All modes of precipitation will be possible - starting on Sunday night into Monday (light and scattered precipitation). This will include a mix of freezing rain and sleet/snow over our region - perhaps changing to all rain.
This precipitation - if frozen - could cause some travel problems. There remain some questions as to how much precipitation (although all the data indicates light precipitation) will occur on Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Please check the latest local forecast for the most up to date information.
The intensity and coverage of the precipitation will increase dramatically on Tuesday into Tuesday night. This is the time period when significant accumulations of sleet, freezing rain - ice, and snow will be possible over some of our counties. Other portions of the area will likely be all rain and even a risk for thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms may also be embedded in the freezing rain, sleet, and snow areas. Thundersnow will be possible in some areas with significant accumulations. This would most likely occur over parts of south central and southeast Missouri into portions of southern and central Illinois. See the above mentioned outlined area. Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - and areas north and west of there.
If the current data verifies then snowfall accumulations in excess of 8-10 inches will be possible over portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Most likely areas for these heavier totals would be further north and west of our immediate local area. St Louis, Missouri into central Illinois into Chicago may experience significant travel problems on Monday night into Tuesday night.
This is a fluid weather situation and still developing. Local NWS Offices and meteorologists are working hard to pin point what areas will be most impacted. Please stay tuned to the blog and other sources of weather information for the most up to to date data.
I am sure there will be some changes in the forecast over the coming 48 hours.
Winter storm watches/warnings and ice storm warnings will likely be necessary over a large area of the central United States - including portions of our region.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser
Previous update below...
January 29, 2011
2 PM Update
I am amazed at some of the weather map images I am looking at this afternoon. Having a hard time believing
some of the solutions. They are showing what appears to be an historic snowstorm for portions of the Missouri Valle into Illinois. Heavy ice, as well for some counties.
Some of the numbers being spit out by the data are incredible - 12-20 inches of snow in some areas.
I continue to look over all of the data. This will be an extremely difficult forecast for our local counties.
Leaning towards warmer for west Kentucky - but it is still not certain.
Ice is likely over portions of northern Kentucky - changing to rain at some point later on Tuesday into Wednesday morning before changing back to sleet and snow.
Southeast Missouri could be mostly rain in the Bootheel and far southeast Missouri and then a significant ice storm over portions of southeast Missouri - say closer to Poplar Bluff to St Louis - Farmington perhaps. Sleet and snow in that region, as well.
Southern Illinois - northern part could see heavy snow and ice and then rain over the far southern counties.
A few counties might make all the difference between a crippling ice storm and just plain old cold rain.
Going to be a tough forecast in the coming days - stay tuned.
- Beau
Previous discussion below...
January 29, 2011
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
9 AM Update
Amazing! This is an image grab of the morning NAM - this would be an historic or near historic storm for portions of the central United States.
This solution is quite warm for our region and would even introduce severe thunderstorm chances for portions of the region. Especially the Tennessee Valley.
This map shows a deep area of low pressure over northeast Arkansas and Western Tennessee on Tuesday.
Very heavy snow would likely fall across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan. More to our north and northwest. Also heavy sleet and freezing rain would be possible over portions of the same states.
I am starting to lean more towards a warm solution for much of our region - there may be some precipitation break out as early as Sunday night and Monday - this could be a mixture. Same for Monday night - then warmer air would advance into our region (portions of our region) on Tuesday. Any frozen precipitation would then change to rain and possibly thunderstorms.
This storm is still 4 days away - that is a long time in the weather world. Track of this storm will be key to our sensible weather.
NAM Model from this morning - this image depicts a powerful storm! The second map is the 850 mb wind fields. THIS is why I said the last few days that it is totally rediculous for anyone to try and give specific forecasts on this storm - county forecasts for snow and ice 5 days out? That just doesn't work. You will flip and flop - flip and flop in your forecast.
January 29, 2011
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
My next update will be around 11 am Saturday morning
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 29th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Will be watching for some scattered precipitation late on Sunday into Sunday night.
Forecast:
Saturday - Pick weather day of the week! Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Saturday Night - Becoming cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s over the northern part of our region and lower 30s over the southern part of the region. A boundary will cut across our region with stark temperature contrasts across that boundary.
Sunday - More clouds than sun. A boundary will be placed across our region - temperatures will range from the 20s over the northern part of the area and in the 30s across the middle and southern part of our region.
We will start to think about introducing precipitation chances on Sunday evening.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
An extremely complicated weather forecast will unfold on Sunday night into next Wednesday. See the video for detailed information.
We have been following this storm for the last week. It is becoming more and more clear that a well defined area of low pressure will develop over Texas on Sunday night and Monday. This storm will then push east/northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The storm will likely track into the Tennessee Valley. There are still some questions on just how far north the low will track.
The exact track of this storm and the intensity of the low pressure will be the deciding factor in what type of precipitation falls across our region.
Areas to the north of the low will have a better chance of snow and ice and areas south of the low will likely be rain and thunderstorms.
At this time it appears snow will be likely on Monday into Wednesday across the northern part of our region and northwestern part of our region. Then a mix of sleet and freezing rain across the central part of our region and then rain across the southern part of our area.
This storm has the potential to be a significant precipitation maker. Areas that receive winter weather and stay winter precipitation could see quite a bit of accumulation.
I am still not confident enough in the forecast to tell you what counties will end up with more snow than ice and more ice than rain.
I am hoping to start to fine tune this forecast on Saturday evening and Sunday morning.
Stay tuned for updates
I will update the blog around 11 AM Saturday morning. I will then update it again during the late afternoon hours.
A few maps from the video - just one possible outcome. There are questions as to the intensity of this storm. This is powerful storm on the GFS model - other models are further north with the low and some further east.
But - for example - you can get the general idea as to how this storm may unfold - the pink and blue areas are precipitation. You can see the low coming out of Texas and into the Tennessee Valley. Snow, ice, sleet, and rain to the north - rain and thunderstorms to the south. Track will be key key key - to this event.
Click images for larger views
A few maps from the video - just one possible outcome. There are questions as to the intensity of this storm. This is powerful storm on the GFS model - other models are further north with the low and some further east.
But - for example - you can get the general idea as to how this storm may unfold - the pink and blue areas are precipitation. You can see the low coming out of Texas and into the Tennessee Valley. Snow, ice, sleet, and rain to the north - rain and thunderstorms to the south. Track will be key key key - to this event.
Click images for larger views
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
January 28, 2011: Video update covers potential event - enjoy today and Saturday!
January 28, 2011
7 PM Update - awaiting new data - few maps from this afternoon
Tracking the differing opinions from the models for the big winter storm next week
Will it be rain? Snow? Sleet? Freezing rain in our region? All the above! Lot of possibilities.
Trends in the models are towards a deeper storm and a warmer storm. That would mean an increased chance of rain for our region. If those trends verify.
Long way to go on this one!This is the afternoon freezing rain forecast from the GFS
I will post these from time to time - we can see the differences with each run - this boundary will shift north and south over the coming days.
I don't think we will know until Saturday night or Sunday morning as to how this will play out for our region.
The best forecast is just to say that a major winter storm is likely over the central United States next week and the exact track of the storm will need to be fine tuned over the coming days.
Trying to get specific with a storm that is still three or four days away will just prove to be a fruitless endeavor. I have seen it many times. This storm will be no different.
Here is the 18z freezing rain forecast - 18z basically means the afternoon data. If you compare this to the map I posted earlier - you can see that the freezing rain has shifted north. Let's see what it does tonight when new data arrives around 10 or 11 pm.
Click image for larger view
And one more map this evening - check out the temperature difference on Saturday afternoon across the central United States. Another indication that something dramatic is about to happen.
January 28, 2011
Here is what the GFS Model is showing for Monday night into Tuesday night.
A big area of low pressure over southern Arkansas. The pink and blue colors represent precipitation and quite a bit of it. This would be snow and ice over portions of the central United States and rain into portions of our region (perhaps starting as ice).
Now - the GFS may or may not be right. This is just one model.
The trends today - indicate that the area of low pressure may track pretty far north and west. If this is the case then we would expect more rain vs frozen precipitation.
Track will be key. If this storm tracks further south and east then we have a better chance at frozen precipitation.
A real mixed bag could be in store for the region. Click for larger view.
Here is the morning ICE map - this is accumulated freezing rain from the GFS. If the GFS were to verify then this would be a signficant ice storm for some of our counties. Again - still far from certain. Just showing you the possibilities.
January 28, 2011
7 AM Update
Good morning everyone
This is when we start to fine tune the forecast - from here on out.
Couple of things are obvious this morning
1. There will be plenty of cold air next week to cause headaches for forecasters.
2. A significant storm system is likely to impact portions of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.
3. This storm will impact our region - to some degree.
What we will don't know this morning - and remember I told you we would not be flipping and flopping on the forecast - is we do not know the track of the storm and where the cold/warm air line will end up.
It will likely be close to our region. That means that significant amounts of precipitation will at least be possible. I am starting to zero in on the Monday night through Wednesday time frame.
I am starting to believe that Sunday night (as I hinted in the video last night) may not be as big of a concern.
There could be some precipitation break out over portions of Missouri on Sunday and Sunday night - this will be monitored.
However, my biggest concern will be the primary storm system will will hang back in the southwest just a bit.
This storm will move east/northeast on Monday into Wednesday and THIS is the storm to watch. Model data shows everything from heavy sleet and ice to heavy snow and then heavy rain in and near our region. This is going to be a difficult forecast for our region. Especially since the sensible weather will vary so much from one area to the next.
The cold air boundary is shallow - and as I showed you in the video - the difference of a few counties could mean the difference between temperatures in the 20s and 30s to temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Again, still too early to have confidence in the track and sensible weather for our local counties.
The National Weather Service Offices around the region are starting to ramp up their rhetoric out of concern for how this storm may unfold for portions of the reion. I read through all of the local offices and they are all now discussing this big winter storm threat.
Now we just need to work through the details. Will we end up with mostly a rain event or will we be facing significant snow and ice?
- Stay tuned
Here is the latest 5 day precipitation forecast from the NWS - you can see our region is near the 1" mark - higher as you go south and east. If that were to be all frozen and snow then it would be a significant event. If it were to be rain - then it would simply be welcome rain!
Click the image for a larger view
More concerning is the image below - which shows a band of heavy freezing rain over portions of the region. This is what we will be watching.
The above image is the snowfall forecast through next Wednesday. Some big big totals in and near our region. Also some big rain totals.
Track will be key in this storm and intensity.
Stay tuned
Beau Dodson
January 28, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 28th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
Forecast:
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the middle 40s.
Friday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday - Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
7 PM Update - awaiting new data - few maps from this afternoon
Tracking the differing opinions from the models for the big winter storm next week
Will it be rain? Snow? Sleet? Freezing rain in our region? All the above! Lot of possibilities.
Trends in the models are towards a deeper storm and a warmer storm. That would mean an increased chance of rain for our region. If those trends verify.
Long way to go on this one!This is the afternoon freezing rain forecast from the GFS
I will post these from time to time - we can see the differences with each run - this boundary will shift north and south over the coming days.
I don't think we will know until Saturday night or Sunday morning as to how this will play out for our region.
The best forecast is just to say that a major winter storm is likely over the central United States next week and the exact track of the storm will need to be fine tuned over the coming days.
Trying to get specific with a storm that is still three or four days away will just prove to be a fruitless endeavor. I have seen it many times. This storm will be no different.
Here is the 18z freezing rain forecast - 18z basically means the afternoon data. If you compare this to the map I posted earlier - you can see that the freezing rain has shifted north. Let's see what it does tonight when new data arrives around 10 or 11 pm.
Click image for larger view
And one more map this evening - check out the temperature difference on Saturday afternoon across the central United States. Another indication that something dramatic is about to happen.
January 28, 2011
Here is what the GFS Model is showing for Monday night into Tuesday night.
A big area of low pressure over southern Arkansas. The pink and blue colors represent precipitation and quite a bit of it. This would be snow and ice over portions of the central United States and rain into portions of our region (perhaps starting as ice).
Now - the GFS may or may not be right. This is just one model.
The trends today - indicate that the area of low pressure may track pretty far north and west. If this is the case then we would expect more rain vs frozen precipitation.
Track will be key. If this storm tracks further south and east then we have a better chance at frozen precipitation.
A real mixed bag could be in store for the region. Click for larger view.
Here is the morning ICE map - this is accumulated freezing rain from the GFS. If the GFS were to verify then this would be a signficant ice storm for some of our counties. Again - still far from certain. Just showing you the possibilities.
January 28, 2011
7 AM Update
Good morning everyone
This is when we start to fine tune the forecast - from here on out.
Couple of things are obvious this morning
1. There will be plenty of cold air next week to cause headaches for forecasters.
2. A significant storm system is likely to impact portions of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.
3. This storm will impact our region - to some degree.
What we will don't know this morning - and remember I told you we would not be flipping and flopping on the forecast - is we do not know the track of the storm and where the cold/warm air line will end up.
It will likely be close to our region. That means that significant amounts of precipitation will at least be possible. I am starting to zero in on the Monday night through Wednesday time frame.
I am starting to believe that Sunday night (as I hinted in the video last night) may not be as big of a concern.
There could be some precipitation break out over portions of Missouri on Sunday and Sunday night - this will be monitored.
However, my biggest concern will be the primary storm system will will hang back in the southwest just a bit.
This storm will move east/northeast on Monday into Wednesday and THIS is the storm to watch. Model data shows everything from heavy sleet and ice to heavy snow and then heavy rain in and near our region. This is going to be a difficult forecast for our region. Especially since the sensible weather will vary so much from one area to the next.
The cold air boundary is shallow - and as I showed you in the video - the difference of a few counties could mean the difference between temperatures in the 20s and 30s to temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Again, still too early to have confidence in the track and sensible weather for our local counties.
The National Weather Service Offices around the region are starting to ramp up their rhetoric out of concern for how this storm may unfold for portions of the reion. I read through all of the local offices and they are all now discussing this big winter storm threat.
Now we just need to work through the details. Will we end up with mostly a rain event or will we be facing significant snow and ice?
- Stay tuned
Here is the latest 5 day precipitation forecast from the NWS - you can see our region is near the 1" mark - higher as you go south and east. If that were to be all frozen and snow then it would be a significant event. If it were to be rain - then it would simply be welcome rain!
Click the image for a larger view
More concerning is the image below - which shows a band of heavy freezing rain over portions of the region. This is what we will be watching.
The above image is the snowfall forecast through next Wednesday. Some big big totals in and near our region. Also some big rain totals.
Track will be key in this storm and intensity.
Stay tuned
Beau Dodson
January 28, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 28th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
Forecast:
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the middle 40s.
Friday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday - Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
Our "event" that we have been talking about for the past week is starting to unfold. Big questions remain as to whether this ends up being a rain or ice - snow event.
I could take a shot in the dark and guess as to how this unfolds - but that isn't very helpful - now is it?
I will be fine tuning the forecast over the coming days.
It appears that the best opportunity for precipitation will arrive on Monday into Wednesday.
A strong boundary will be located near or over our region on Sunday into Wednesday. To the north of this boundary will be cold air and to the south of this boundary will be warm air.
Let me show you an example of what I am talking about - the following image is the NAM and the temperature forecast for Sunday. Check out the difference between northern Missouri and southern Missouri. This is impressive.
The blue represents 20s and 30s and the orange area in southwest Missouri would represent 50s/60s.
Several storm systems will ride along this boundary early next week. This will help spark precipitation over the Missouri Valley into the Mississippi Valley.
There will be a potential for all types of precipitation along this boundary. This will include freezing rain and sleet for some counties.
Right now it is still too early to determine how this event will unfold for our local counties.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
January 27, 2011: Cool days - Friday and Saturday won't be too bad
January 27, 2011
7 PM Update
Light snow and mixed precipitation is moving into northern and northeastern Kentucky. I am expecting around 1/2 - 1" over some of our northeast districts.
Weather Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Previous update below...
January 27, 2011
Morning update - 11 AM
First off - anyone who tells you exactly what it is going to do Sunday through next Wednesday is doing nothing more than guessing. There is way too much disagreement in the data to talk certainties this far off. Those that do talk certainties will likely be flipping and flopping on their forecast during the coming days. And nobody likes flip-flopping - unless you like pancakes!
I like to ramp up - not down. We had to ramp down once this winter and that was because the storm system weakened more than expected. I do not like to ramp down. I try to head into an event with a heads up for everyone - then increase the tone as the event becomes a bit more clear - and then finally start pulling the trigger on the Dodson Snowstorm Rating Scale and confidence levels - or the ice storm scale - depending on the event.
We will treat this event the same - I have been telling you about the potential for over a week now. Now we will start to fine tune the forecast and fine tune it even more in the days to come.
Watching a system for Sunday night into next Wednesday - I have been talking about this system for over a week now - it is now starting to show up on the actual weather maps.
Big questions remain on the track - there will be an event. The question is what type of weather is this going to bring to our region. Some of the data keeps it far enough south that we are clipped by snow. Other data shows a decent amount of freezing rain, sleet, and snow for our region.
There are a couple of solutions that are warmer vs colder.
Bottom line - stay tuned - our storm is starting to come into focus and there will be updates through the weekend as to how or if this will impact our region.
Saturday will be nice. Highs well into the 40s. Enjoy Saturday - been awhile since we have had a nice day show up on the weekend!
Let's take a quick look at the Canadian - if this were to verify then we would be looking at a major winter storm in our region. This is just one data set - there are different opinions on this.
The overall pattern "does favor" a major event. However, we have been in a favorable pattern for big events for awhile now. And - there have been several big events - just not over our immediate local counties. They have tended to go south of us.
Will this one be a big hit for our region?
Canadian Model - this shows a deep low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley early next week with heavy snow, sleet, and ice over our region and severe thunderstorms for the southlands.
I caution everyone to remember that models are not gospel. They change - it is difficult enough to forecast snow and ice a day in advance let alone four or five days in advance.
The idea I want to leave you with is that there is some potential for an event next week - where it tracks and what type of sensible weather it brings to our region? I don't know - at this point.
Click images for a larger view
To go along with this potential winter storm - more cold air will be moving into the region. Yet another blast from the north.
The above map is the temperature chart for next Tuesday - via the GFS from www.wright-weather.com
COLD! Once again
Stay tuned
- Beau
January 27, 2011:
Good morning everyone. I posted the snowfall totals on my video briefing this morning. All in all - not too bad. You can check those out by watching the video.
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 27th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Snow coming to an end over our eastern and southern counties.
Forecast:
Thursday - Partly sunny with highs in the lower 40s.
Thursday night - Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A few snow flurries over the northern and northeastern portions of the area. Lows in the middle 20s. Areas with snow on the ground will be colder.
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Areas with snow on the ground may be a bit cooler.
Friday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday - Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
I have been talking about a storm system for Around January 30-February 2nd for about a week now. I still believe there could be some sort of event in this time frame.
Still too soon to make a call on rain or snow - perhaps both. Stay tuned!
--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
7 PM Update
Light snow and mixed precipitation is moving into northern and northeastern Kentucky. I am expecting around 1/2 - 1" over some of our northeast districts.
Weather Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Previous update below...
January 27, 2011
Morning update - 11 AM
First off - anyone who tells you exactly what it is going to do Sunday through next Wednesday is doing nothing more than guessing. There is way too much disagreement in the data to talk certainties this far off. Those that do talk certainties will likely be flipping and flopping on their forecast during the coming days. And nobody likes flip-flopping - unless you like pancakes!
I like to ramp up - not down. We had to ramp down once this winter and that was because the storm system weakened more than expected. I do not like to ramp down. I try to head into an event with a heads up for everyone - then increase the tone as the event becomes a bit more clear - and then finally start pulling the trigger on the Dodson Snowstorm Rating Scale and confidence levels - or the ice storm scale - depending on the event.
We will treat this event the same - I have been telling you about the potential for over a week now. Now we will start to fine tune the forecast and fine tune it even more in the days to come.
Watching a system for Sunday night into next Wednesday - I have been talking about this system for over a week now - it is now starting to show up on the actual weather maps.
Big questions remain on the track - there will be an event. The question is what type of weather is this going to bring to our region. Some of the data keeps it far enough south that we are clipped by snow. Other data shows a decent amount of freezing rain, sleet, and snow for our region.
There are a couple of solutions that are warmer vs colder.
Bottom line - stay tuned - our storm is starting to come into focus and there will be updates through the weekend as to how or if this will impact our region.
Saturday will be nice. Highs well into the 40s. Enjoy Saturday - been awhile since we have had a nice day show up on the weekend!
Let's take a quick look at the Canadian - if this were to verify then we would be looking at a major winter storm in our region. This is just one data set - there are different opinions on this.
The overall pattern "does favor" a major event. However, we have been in a favorable pattern for big events for awhile now. And - there have been several big events - just not over our immediate local counties. They have tended to go south of us.
Will this one be a big hit for our region?
Canadian Model - this shows a deep low pressure moving into the Tennessee Valley early next week with heavy snow, sleet, and ice over our region and severe thunderstorms for the southlands.
I caution everyone to remember that models are not gospel. They change - it is difficult enough to forecast snow and ice a day in advance let alone four or five days in advance.
The idea I want to leave you with is that there is some potential for an event next week - where it tracks and what type of sensible weather it brings to our region? I don't know - at this point.
Click images for a larger view
To go along with this potential winter storm - more cold air will be moving into the region. Yet another blast from the north.
The above map is the temperature chart for next Tuesday - via the GFS from www.wright-weather.com
COLD! Once again
Stay tuned
- Beau
January 27, 2011:
Good morning everyone. I posted the snowfall totals on my video briefing this morning. All in all - not too bad. You can check those out by watching the video.
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 27th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Snow coming to an end over our eastern and southern counties.
Forecast:
Thursday - Partly sunny with highs in the lower 40s.
Thursday night - Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A few snow flurries over the northern and northeastern portions of the area. Lows in the middle 20s. Areas with snow on the ground will be colder.
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Areas with snow on the ground may be a bit cooler.
Friday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday - Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
As this system winds down we will be watching a weak system for tonight. Flurries possible over the northern and northeast part of the region.I have been talking about a storm system for Around January 30-February 2nd for about a week now. I still believe there could be some sort of event in this time frame.
Still too soon to make a call on rain or snow - perhaps both. Stay tuned!
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
January 26, 2011: Snow ends for our eastern counties...
January 26, 2011:
Good evening everyone!
I will post the final snow totals on my video tonight. See if the forecast verified - and see where the forecast did not verify!
I am still watching (been talking about this event for over a week now) a potential significant weather event around January 30th - February 2nd. Somewhere in that time frame.
Stay tuned
- Beau
January 26, 2011
This was my final forecast call from yesterday noon - as of this writing it was still snowing. I will have to post the actual snowfall measurements once I pull them together from spotters. Probably too low in the Evansville to Owensboro area as I know they picked up 3-4" of snow.
We will see how this forecast panned out once all the numbers are in.
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 26th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Snow coming to an end over our eastern and southern counties.
Forecast:
Wednesday night - Mostly cloudy and cold. Lows in the lower to middle 20s.
Thursday - Partly sunny with highs in the middle to upper 30s.
Thursday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the middle 20s. Areas with snow on the ground will be colder.
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Areas with snow on the ground may be a bit cooler.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Areas near KY Lake and east and south received the most snowfall.
As of this writing, snow was still falling - I will have to update in the morning with some final totals.
This was a heavy wet snow that stuck to trees and power lines.
The snow will continue over central and eastern Kentucky through today (Wednesday). Significant accumulations are likely in some counties. Please view the latest watches and warnings for specific county information.
As this system winds down we will be watching a weak system for the weekend and then a bigger storm is still in the charts for around January 30th through February 2nd. That time frame. Still too early for me to determine whether this will be a rain or snow event. So - stay tuned.
--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Good evening everyone!
I will post the final snow totals on my video tonight. See if the forecast verified - and see where the forecast did not verify!
I am still watching (been talking about this event for over a week now) a potential significant weather event around January 30th - February 2nd. Somewhere in that time frame.
Stay tuned
- Beau
January 26, 2011
This was my final forecast call from yesterday noon - as of this writing it was still snowing. I will have to post the actual snowfall measurements once I pull them together from spotters. Probably too low in the Evansville to Owensboro area as I know they picked up 3-4" of snow.
We will see how this forecast panned out once all the numbers are in.
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 26th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Snow coming to an end over our eastern and southern counties.
Forecast:
Wednesday - Snow ending early this morning (in areas receiving snow). Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the lower to middle 30s.
Wednesday night - Mostly cloudy and cold. Lows in the lower to middle 20s.
Thursday - Partly sunny with highs in the middle to upper 30s.
Thursday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the middle 20s. Areas with snow on the ground will be colder.
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the lower to middle 40s. Areas with snow on the ground may be a bit cooler.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
See my previous posts for my snowfall forecasts.
Wow - well the snowstorm proved to be difficult to forecast - however, in the end - I think we did okay with calling where the sharp cut-off line would be. It all came down to just a county or two for the difference between measurable snow and no snow at all!Areas near KY Lake and east and south received the most snowfall.
As of this writing, snow was still falling - I will have to update in the morning with some final totals.
This was a heavy wet snow that stuck to trees and power lines.
The snow will continue over central and eastern Kentucky through today (Wednesday). Significant accumulations are likely in some counties. Please view the latest watches and warnings for specific county information.
As this system winds down we will be watching a weak system for the weekend and then a bigger storm is still in the charts for around January 30th through February 2nd. That time frame. Still too early for me to determine whether this will be a rain or snow event. So - stay tuned.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
January 25, 2011: Tuesday update! Big winter storm to our east...
January 25, 2011
7 PM Update
Snow is falling over much of the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee and portions of western Kentucky. Current snow forecast appears good.
Reports of 1" of snow in Cadiz, KY. Also a dusting over portions of Graves into Marshall County - Calloway County and Fulton County, as well.
Biggest question will end up being the counties along the Ohio River in IL and KY. Just too close to call - either way only a dusting to an inch is expected in that area.
Otherwise - everything else appears to be on track.
Pockets of heavier accumulation not out of the question near and east of KY Lake. That was covered in the video and below.
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Beau
January 25, 2011
1 PM Map Update
HERE ARE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST NUMBERS
The above image is my official forecast numbers
- Beau
Please scroll down for previous updates and snowfall forecast maps - I am going to go ahead and cut and paste my email forecast I just sent out to everyone.
Noon update that I just sent out to everyone
Extremely difficult forecast - once again (when hasn't it been this winter)
No big changes - tweaked a few counties and snowfall totals (extremely difficult forecast as it comes down to one or two counties in the shift zone). If there is going to be an error in this forecast then it will probably be that I am still a county or two too far south and east with the accumulating snow and amounts may be a little too low. We will see how it goes.
A few small changes from last nights video update - also everything appears to be on track from the 5 am blog update. I shifted the snow north and west late last night and put out an accumulation map yesterday at 8 pm. Two maps, actually, one map was for the storm to stay on the forecast track and the second map was if it were to shift a little west.
Remember that I update the blog the most often and Facebook - then the video once per day around 10 pm - and then emails when I feel an update is needed. So - for the most up to date information check the blog and the Facebook!
All of the morning data indicated a very slight shift further west and north. In anticipation of the data shifting, this morning at 5 am, I moved the snowfall accumulation forecast a county or two further north and west.
You can see all of those changes here
http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/
I have winter weather radar up and running - we are tracking the large storm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
I will update my Facebook several times today - remember you have to hit the LIKE button at the top of that page in order to follow the updates
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
If I think any additional small changes need to occur then I will update the blog. It is easier for everyone to check that page vs another email. Plus it allows me to post you images and graphics.
Illinois:
Far southern Illinois - along the Ohio River
Some light rain this afternoon - changing to snow tonight. Can't rule out a dusting to an inch. Snow is more likely as you travel south and east into Kentucky.
Southwest Indiana
A chance for light rain and snow changing to light snow. Little accumulation is expected.
Missouri Bootheel - rain and snow this afternoon changing to snow tonight. Light accumulation possible. Less than 1" of snow.
Northwest Tennessee - rain today changing to snow tonight. Some light accumulation possible - most likely in the 1-3" range. More as you go east and southeast.
Kentucky
This email is read statewide - so stay with me as I also discuss other sections of the State of Kentucky
I will mention the district map - here it is
http://weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
District 1 - far western Kentucky - including Paducah, Mayfield, Wickliffe, Murray, Benton, and Calvert City (again see the map please)
Rain later this afternoon - changing to snow tonight. Snow accumulations are forecast to be lightest near the Ohio River. A dusting to an inch is possible along the Ohio River. Accumulations will increase a bit as you go south and east. I have placed them in the 1-2" category. Can't rule out some higher totals if a heavier snow band were to form and move over those southeastern counties in district 1. So - keep that in mind.
District 2
Northern half of district 2 - Some rain mixed with snow changing to snow tonight. Snow ending on Wednesday morning. Light dusting to an inch possible over the northern part of district 2. 1-3" of snow possible over the southern portion of district 2. The far southern section of district 2 could have heavier snow if a band sets up over that area.
District 3
This is a difficult district - depending on the time of the change over. I had them in the 1-3" range - however, that may need to be increased a bit. There is some data that shows a period of heavy snow is likely in this district. I will bump them up to 2-4". Some locally higher amounts are possible in district 3 and 4. There is one set of data that shows a period of very heavy snow in this district into parts of district 4 and 8, as well. This is something that will need to be monitored.
District 4
Rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending on Wednesday morning. I have placed district 4 in the 1-4" range. See the accumulation map on my blog. Again not the wild card of the potential for heavier bursts of snow.
District 5
Rain and snow changing to snow tonight and ending on Wednesday. Some light accumulation possible. 1-3" possible.
District 6
A chance for light rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending Wednesday afternoon. A dusting to an inch is not out of the question.
District 7
Rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some heavy wet snow is possible. 3-6 inches of snow possible.
Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12
There are serious questions on the timing of rain changing to snow in these counties. The NWS is having an extremely difficult time with how to handle this particular area of Kentucky. If the rain does not change over to snow when expected then less snow will accumulate than is currently forecast. Please keep this in mind - otherwise rain will mix with and should change to snow tonight and on Wednesday morning. Precipitation should end on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Additional snow showers are possible into Thursday. Total accumulation should be in the 4-8" range. If the rain turns over quicker than forecast then higher totals will be possible. Again, this is a difficult forecast area.
Stay tuned for updates on all watches and warnings for this event.
No big changes in previous forecasts - just tweaking amounts a little bit.
A lot of this is coming down to the difference between one or two counties getting snow or no snow at all. This makes it tricky for meteorologists.
There will be a sharp gradient in snowfall totals - meaning you could go from a dusting or an inch to several inches within one county.
I am going to attach the WRF Model Snowfall forecast - it is actually showing some extreme totals over part of western and central Kentucky. Something of interest and also showing you what forecasters are up against in this storm. Although the attached map is unlikely to verify - it is something that forecasters have to consider when looking at a storm like this. Pockets of higher snowfall totals. This will come down to a "nowcast" later today and this evening. That means - forecasters will not know where the heaviest band of snow will develop until a few hours in advance of the event.
Don't be surprised if some areas receive more snowfall than forecast - especially in districts 3, 4, 7, and 8
Also note that this could be a heavy wet snow in portions of Kentucky. This could cause damage to trees and power lines. People living in the areas expecting heavy snow should take precautions in the event of potential power failures later tonight and on Wednesday morning.
For all the latest watches and warnings please visit this site
http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php
Again - I will update the blog and Facebook with more information - if need be.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser
The image below - remember - is just one models opinion on where some heavier snow could occur. But, I don't want there to be any surprises if heavier snow does develop in a few counties.
Click image for a larger view
PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 5 AM - BELOW
January 25, 2011
5 AM
Updated forecast and snowfall forecast map:
Forecast:
Tuesday - Fog this morning. Mostly cloudy. Rain likely spreading into the Missouri Bootheel, far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Rain may mix with snow late this afternoon. High temperature in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night - Rain changing to snow. Precipitation most likely in the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennesee, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Snow may accumulate 1-2" near the KY/TN line and near Kentucky Lake and then eastward. A dusting to an inch of snow is possible a row of counties further north and northwest. Little or snow accumulation is expected from the Ohio River northward. See the snowfall forecast map. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Wednesday - Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the middle 30s.
Updated snowfall map - tweaked it a little bit. Concerned the precipitation shield may be 20 miles or so further north and west than expected. Very tough call on that. We are talking just a few miles.
However, with that in mind - I will add a dusting or so to the north and west edge and also increase totals in Tennessee just a little bit.
There are some serious questions about portions of eastern Kentucky and exactly what time they change over to snow. The NWS is hedging now and wondering if some areas will not change over to much snow at all. They have kept the winter storm watch this morning and did not upgrade to a warning. In areas where there may be three to six inches of snow - rain could mix in and reduce those totals. However, this is uncertain - so they kept the watch and said they would check conditions later today.
Bottom line - for eastern Kentucky - rain should change to snow later tonight and there should be some accumulation. If the big totals are realized it will be because the precipitation changed to snow and remained snow.
Here is the update map - Click for larger view. There could also be a light dusting in the Missouri Bootheel if the precipitation changes over to snow soon enough.
January 25, 2011
These snowfall forecast maps were issued at 8 PM on Monday night
A major winter storm will impact areas to our east. If you have travel plans south and east over the coming 24-48 hours then you might want to check ahead on road conditions.
My snowfall forecast map - general - Click for a larger view. There may be isolated higher totals over far southeast Kentucky. Also note this will be a wet snow - this could cause some problems to tree limbs and power lines.
This will be a significant event for districts 7, 8, 10, 11, and 12.
These are my first thoughts on accumulations - if the storm were to be a bit further west then we would need to tack on an inch or two to the accumulations. I will monitor and update accordingly. But - you get the general idea from the above map as to where snow is expected to fall. Again - if the storm were to shift a bit further west and be a little more moist then add another 1-2" to those totals.
That shift would look more like the map below - if it were to occur
District map can be viewed here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
Again the above maps were issued early on Monday night and our my first call maps.
January 24, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 25th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for light rain and snow over our southern and southeastern counties. Mainly to the east/southeast of Kentucky Lake. Some may creep a bit further west/northwest.
Forecast:Tuesday - Fog this morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance for rain in the afternoon - mostly over our southeastern counties and southern counties - highest chances near the KY/TN counties and then southward - also the Missouri Bootheel area. High temperature in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night - A chance for rain or snow - changing to all light snow over our far southern counties. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Rain/snow mix may creep as far north as the Ohio River - but nothing significant is expected.
Wednesday - Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the middle 30s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
7 PM Update
Snow is falling over much of the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee and portions of western Kentucky. Current snow forecast appears good.
Reports of 1" of snow in Cadiz, KY. Also a dusting over portions of Graves into Marshall County - Calloway County and Fulton County, as well.
Biggest question will end up being the counties along the Ohio River in IL and KY. Just too close to call - either way only a dusting to an inch is expected in that area.
Otherwise - everything else appears to be on track.
Pockets of heavier accumulation not out of the question near and east of KY Lake. That was covered in the video and below.
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Beau
January 25, 2011
1 PM Map Update
HERE ARE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST NUMBERS
The above image is my official forecast numbers
- Beau
Please scroll down for previous updates and snowfall forecast maps - I am going to go ahead and cut and paste my email forecast I just sent out to everyone.
Noon update that I just sent out to everyone
Extremely difficult forecast - once again (when hasn't it been this winter)
No big changes - tweaked a few counties and snowfall totals (extremely difficult forecast as it comes down to one or two counties in the shift zone). If there is going to be an error in this forecast then it will probably be that I am still a county or two too far south and east with the accumulating snow and amounts may be a little too low. We will see how it goes.
A few small changes from last nights video update - also everything appears to be on track from the 5 am blog update. I shifted the snow north and west late last night and put out an accumulation map yesterday at 8 pm. Two maps, actually, one map was for the storm to stay on the forecast track and the second map was if it were to shift a little west.
Remember that I update the blog the most often and Facebook - then the video once per day around 10 pm - and then emails when I feel an update is needed. So - for the most up to date information check the blog and the Facebook!
All of the morning data indicated a very slight shift further west and north. In anticipation of the data shifting, this morning at 5 am, I moved the snowfall accumulation forecast a county or two further north and west.
You can see all of those changes here
http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/
I have winter weather radar up and running - we are tracking the large storm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
I will update my Facebook several times today - remember you have to hit the LIKE button at the top of that page in order to follow the updates
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
If I think any additional small changes need to occur then I will update the blog. It is easier for everyone to check that page vs another email. Plus it allows me to post you images and graphics.
Illinois:
Far southern Illinois - along the Ohio River
Some light rain this afternoon - changing to snow tonight. Can't rule out a dusting to an inch. Snow is more likely as you travel south and east into Kentucky.
Southwest Indiana
A chance for light rain and snow changing to light snow. Little accumulation is expected.
Missouri Bootheel - rain and snow this afternoon changing to snow tonight. Light accumulation possible. Less than 1" of snow.
Northwest Tennessee - rain today changing to snow tonight. Some light accumulation possible - most likely in the 1-3" range. More as you go east and southeast.
Kentucky
This email is read statewide - so stay with me as I also discuss other sections of the State of Kentucky
I will mention the district map - here it is
http://weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
District 1 - far western Kentucky - including Paducah, Mayfield, Wickliffe, Murray, Benton, and Calvert City (again see the map please)
Rain later this afternoon - changing to snow tonight. Snow accumulations are forecast to be lightest near the Ohio River. A dusting to an inch is possible along the Ohio River. Accumulations will increase a bit as you go south and east. I have placed them in the 1-2" category. Can't rule out some higher totals if a heavier snow band were to form and move over those southeastern counties in district 1. So - keep that in mind.
District 2
Northern half of district 2 - Some rain mixed with snow changing to snow tonight. Snow ending on Wednesday morning. Light dusting to an inch possible over the northern part of district 2. 1-3" of snow possible over the southern portion of district 2. The far southern section of district 2 could have heavier snow if a band sets up over that area.
District 3
This is a difficult district - depending on the time of the change over. I had them in the 1-3" range - however, that may need to be increased a bit. There is some data that shows a period of heavy snow is likely in this district. I will bump them up to 2-4". Some locally higher amounts are possible in district 3 and 4. There is one set of data that shows a period of very heavy snow in this district into parts of district 4 and 8, as well. This is something that will need to be monitored.
District 4
Rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending on Wednesday morning. I have placed district 4 in the 1-4" range. See the accumulation map on my blog. Again not the wild card of the potential for heavier bursts of snow.
District 5
Rain and snow changing to snow tonight and ending on Wednesday. Some light accumulation possible. 1-3" possible.
District 6
A chance for light rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending Wednesday afternoon. A dusting to an inch is not out of the question.
District 7
Rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some heavy wet snow is possible. 3-6 inches of snow possible.
Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12
There are serious questions on the timing of rain changing to snow in these counties. The NWS is having an extremely difficult time with how to handle this particular area of Kentucky. If the rain does not change over to snow when expected then less snow will accumulate than is currently forecast. Please keep this in mind - otherwise rain will mix with and should change to snow tonight and on Wednesday morning. Precipitation should end on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Additional snow showers are possible into Thursday. Total accumulation should be in the 4-8" range. If the rain turns over quicker than forecast then higher totals will be possible. Again, this is a difficult forecast area.
Stay tuned for updates on all watches and warnings for this event.
No big changes in previous forecasts - just tweaking amounts a little bit.
A lot of this is coming down to the difference between one or two counties getting snow or no snow at all. This makes it tricky for meteorologists.
There will be a sharp gradient in snowfall totals - meaning you could go from a dusting or an inch to several inches within one county.
I am going to attach the WRF Model Snowfall forecast - it is actually showing some extreme totals over part of western and central Kentucky. Something of interest and also showing you what forecasters are up against in this storm. Although the attached map is unlikely to verify - it is something that forecasters have to consider when looking at a storm like this. Pockets of higher snowfall totals. This will come down to a "nowcast" later today and this evening. That means - forecasters will not know where the heaviest band of snow will develop until a few hours in advance of the event.
Don't be surprised if some areas receive more snowfall than forecast - especially in districts 3, 4, 7, and 8
Also note that this could be a heavy wet snow in portions of Kentucky. This could cause damage to trees and power lines. People living in the areas expecting heavy snow should take precautions in the event of potential power failures later tonight and on Wednesday morning.
For all the latest watches and warnings please visit this site
http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php
Again - I will update the blog and Facebook with more information - if need be.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser
The image below - remember - is just one models opinion on where some heavier snow could occur. But, I don't want there to be any surprises if heavier snow does develop in a few counties.
Click image for a larger view
PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 5 AM - BELOW
January 25, 2011
5 AM
Updated forecast and snowfall forecast map:
Forecast:
Tuesday - Fog this morning. Mostly cloudy. Rain likely spreading into the Missouri Bootheel, far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Rain may mix with snow late this afternoon. High temperature in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night - Rain changing to snow. Precipitation most likely in the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennesee, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Snow may accumulate 1-2" near the KY/TN line and near Kentucky Lake and then eastward. A dusting to an inch of snow is possible a row of counties further north and northwest. Little or snow accumulation is expected from the Ohio River northward. See the snowfall forecast map. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Wednesday - Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the middle 30s.
Updated snowfall map - tweaked it a little bit. Concerned the precipitation shield may be 20 miles or so further north and west than expected. Very tough call on that. We are talking just a few miles.
However, with that in mind - I will add a dusting or so to the north and west edge and also increase totals in Tennessee just a little bit.
There are some serious questions about portions of eastern Kentucky and exactly what time they change over to snow. The NWS is hedging now and wondering if some areas will not change over to much snow at all. They have kept the winter storm watch this morning and did not upgrade to a warning. In areas where there may be three to six inches of snow - rain could mix in and reduce those totals. However, this is uncertain - so they kept the watch and said they would check conditions later today.
Bottom line - for eastern Kentucky - rain should change to snow later tonight and there should be some accumulation. If the big totals are realized it will be because the precipitation changed to snow and remained snow.
Here is the update map - Click for larger view. There could also be a light dusting in the Missouri Bootheel if the precipitation changes over to snow soon enough.
January 25, 2011
These snowfall forecast maps were issued at 8 PM on Monday night
A major winter storm will impact areas to our east. If you have travel plans south and east over the coming 24-48 hours then you might want to check ahead on road conditions.
My snowfall forecast map - general - Click for a larger view. There may be isolated higher totals over far southeast Kentucky. Also note this will be a wet snow - this could cause some problems to tree limbs and power lines.
This will be a significant event for districts 7, 8, 10, 11, and 12.
These are my first thoughts on accumulations - if the storm were to be a bit further west then we would need to tack on an inch or two to the accumulations. I will monitor and update accordingly. But - you get the general idea from the above map as to where snow is expected to fall. Again - if the storm were to shift a bit further west and be a little more moist then add another 1-2" to those totals.
That shift would look more like the map below - if it were to occur
District map can be viewed here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
Again the above maps were issued early on Monday night and our my first call maps.
January 24, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 25th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for light rain and snow over our southern and southeastern counties. Mainly to the east/southeast of Kentucky Lake. Some may creep a bit further west/northwest.
Forecast:
Tuesday night - A chance for rain or snow - changing to all light snow over our far southern counties. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Rain/snow mix may creep as far north as the Ohio River - but nothing significant is expected.
Wednesday - Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the middle 30s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
A significant storm system will impact central and eastern Kentucky over the next 24-36 hours. Otherwise, the western part of the state will just see some clouds and perhaps some areas of light rain changing to light snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Our local area is not expecting any significant snow accumulation from this event. Perhaps a dusting or so near the KY/TN line near Kentucky Lake and then east from there. Spotty 1" totals not out of the question - see the map above.
The next storm of interest might arrive around February 1st. That is a long way off! Plenty of time to keep an eye on that event. Also watching the time period around February 10-14th.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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