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For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Cold temperatures could cause discomfort for those working outdoors. Take precautions if exposed to the cold for prolonged periods of time.
Chance for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Today - Mostly sunny. Cold. High near 28 degrees. North winds at 5-10 mph.
Tonight - A few clouds. Cold. Low temperature around 12-15 degrees.
Wednesday - Few clouds. Cold. High temperatures around 34 degrees.
Wednesday Night - A few clouds. Low temperatures around 25 degrees.
Thursday - A few clouds. A bit warmer than previous days. High near 44 degrees.
Watching a storm system for Saturday and Sunday - it is still too soon to make a confident call. Rain and thunderstorms or snow? Possible all three for our local region. Stay tuned - this is the toughest forecast I have had to make since last winter.
Your local National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.10-30.30" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Cold weather continues as a strong northwest flow has set up over our region. This is ushering in cold air from Canada. This weather will continue for the next few days.
Just look at how cold it is over our region and the nation. Just amazing. Click for larger images - as always.
Let's take a quick look at the past seven days - just how cold has it been? WELL below normal temperatures.
The map below is the 850 mb wind and temperature map. The 850 mb level of the atmosphere is about 1500 meters above the ground. You can see all the deep blue and pink/purple colors. Those colors represent cold air. You can also follow the arrows - those represent the wind direction. The winds from the northwest blowing towards the southeast are bringing in Canadian air - COLD! Anytime you see this pattern in December (or during the winter months) then temperatures are normally cold in our region.
At the surface this basically means low temperatures are in the teens across most of our region.
A slow moderation in temperatures will occur over the coming days. We will actually be in the 40s on Thursday and Friday. I suppose that is warmer? :) A few weeks ago we would have thought that was chilly.
The next big weather story is going to be a storm system for the upcoming weekend. There are still a lot of questions as to the eventual track of an area of low pressure that is expected to develop over the Central Plains. The track of this area of low pressure is critical to our forecast.
Yesterday the majority of models were taking this system to our north. That would mean mostly rain and thunderstorms for our region - changing to snow on Sunday. Then last nights model runs indicated that the storm might track further south - putting our region in heavy snow and high winds.
There is little confidence in the weekend forecast. At this time I believe that our region will experience rain on Saturday and then snow on Saturday night (late) and Sunday. Strong winds will also develop on Saturday night and Sunday.
I am not buying into the far southern track of the low pressure area. A blend of the EC and GFS is probably best - as is usually the case. A track somewhere over Missouri into Indiana or perhaps as far south as northern Kentucky of the low seems appropriate. This would mean mainly rain for our immediate local counties - followed by a change to snow at the end of the storm. Can't rule out some accumulation - mostly light - over our local counties.
ANY change in this storm track will cause significant changes in the sensible weather and forecast.
I would not be surprised to see winter storm warnings across portions of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys for Friday night into Sunday. Strong winds, heavy snow, and cold temperatures are going to cause significant travel problems - if the latest data verifies. Again - our LOCAL region is still on the rain/snow line.
One thing is for certain - colder weather will return with a vengeance on Sunday into next week. I would not be surprised to see single digits and teens (once again) over some of our counties. Single digits would be more likely if snow does accumulate. Too far out to make a confident call.
Check out these forecast lows for next Monday and Tuesday morning. Quite impressive for December. Remember my winter forecast was for an early start to winter - a cold December followed by above normal temperatures in January and February. Time will tell if this is the case.
Monday morning lows - model prediction - map below (the maps on this page are from www.wright-weather.com)
Stay tuned for updates on this storm - I have a feeling there will be a number of forecast changes in the coming days.
In addition to the cold weather - portions of central and eastern Kentucky (the favored snow belt areas) will receive several chances of snow after this weekend storm.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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