10 PM
Ice continues to accumulate here in Massac County - same is true for most of southern Illinois. Freezing rain has changed to rain over much of far southeast Missouri. A few counties in southwest Kentucky have also changed to all rain.
The freezing line is slowly moving north and east. It appears that far southern Illinois and much of western Kentucky will go above freedom in the coming hours. Roadways may remain slick for several hours or into tomorrow morning.
Several schools have already closed. Many will wait until morning to make a decision. I would imagine many counties in far western Kentucky will be open. However - again - wait until morning to see how road conditions are.
The freezing line continues to push further north than forecast. This is making for a tricky forecast - which we knew it would be!
Always on that rain/ice/snow line. No different with this event.
Many people will wake up tomorrow and not even realize we had ice overnight. Especially in areas where the ice melts.
- Beau
December 15, 2010:
830 PM Update:
Freezing line runs through Cape Girardeau, Missouri down to near Mayfield, KY. This line is slowing creeping north and east. Precipitation which is now falling as freezing rain will change to all rain later this evening and tonight across far southern Illinois and much of western Kentucky. This will help end the threat for ice covered roads.
At this hour - slick roads are being reported over southern Illinois into Kentucky. This will continue for several hours.
Thankfully the freezing line is pushing north and east.
- Beau
December 15, 2010:
6 PM Update:
For all warnings and advisories in Illinois - Click Here
For all warnings in Kentucky - Click here
For winter weather precipitation radar - click here (remember that precip is currently very light - so it is not showing up very well)
The map below was put out by Chris Bailey - you can see that areas to our east will have snow and sleet accumulations. Our area will have to deal mostly with freezing rain and black ice.
I thought I should update everyone on the ongoing winter precipitation event. Precipitation has been slow to develop this afternoon - however, freezing drizzle and freezing rain is being reported over much of our area. Conditions will deteriorate tonight. Hopefully everyone is safe at home. Roads are covered in ice over parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Kentucky.
At 5:15 PM Cape Girardeau County, Missouri is reporting black ice with cars moving at about 2 mph. Several wrecks have been reported. Roads appear wet but are actually covered in black ice. Extremely dangerous driving conditions.
Freezing drizzle and freezing rain has also started to fall over far western Kentucky. Again, numerous accidents have been reported over southeast Missouri from a light glaze of freezing drizzle. I have light drizzle or freezing drizzle here at my place in Massac County - as of 5 pm. Fulton and Graves County Kentucky are also reporting black ice. Don't be fooled by what appears to be wet roadways. It may be ice.
The area of precipitation continues to expand and grow over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois. Radar is a bit deceptive - it is not picking up all of the precipitation that is actually falling (it is too light). However, don't be fooled by these light precipitation returns - freezing drizzle has caused roadways to become extremely slick over southeast Missouri and far southwest Kentucky (as mentioned above).
It now appears that temperatures will rise above freezing over far western Kentucky and far southern Illinois later tonight. Mainly after 11 pm. This will help improve road conditions. However, roads will be slick and hazardous before that time (and possible will continue to be slick into the early morning hours).
Some changes are being made to the forecast this afternoon for the State of Kentucky and for far southern Illinois. WPSD, KFVS, and WSIL are on top of this situation and I see no reason to disagree with any of their forecasts or the NWS official forecast. Everyone seems to agree on temperature and precipitation amounts for tonight.
Areas further east along the KY/TN border will also likely change to rain late tonight - after midnight. Other areas in the State of Kentucky may stay all frozen. Obviously the further south you go in the state the better chance of precipitation turning to plain rain. It may take surfaces awhile to warm above freezing.
Portions of central, northern, and eastern Kentucky are expecting heavy snow and ice accumulations. Areas such as Lexington and Louisville, Kentucky - heavy snow and sleet/ice. If you have to travel to those areas then please be sure and check road conditions. Same is true for the northern parts of western Kentucky - towards the Evansville area.
Areas north of Alexander, Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties in southern Illinois may stay all frozen tonight. Areas including those counties and southward may change to all rain later tonight (as mentioned above). This is a fairly big change from earlier thinking. If we do change to all rain then that will help improve road conditions. Again - areas to the north may stay all frozen. Keep that in mind if you have to travel.
Again, the main concern for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be this evening into the early morning hours.
The NWS has issued winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories for the entire State of Kentucky and much of southern Illinois. Each office appears to be on top of the situation. This is a difficult and tricky forecast. See the links above for warning information and advisory information.
The exact placement of the rain/ice line will need to be followed through tonight. This will be a now-cast situation.
As far as schools tomorrow morning - this continues to be a tough call for extreme southern Illinois and western Kentucky. If the freezing rain turns to all rain then that should improve road conditions enough for there to be school in most areas. Again - this will need to be updated through the night. Many may not know until tomorrow morning as to whether they have school or not. Areas further north will likely not have school tomorrow.
Winter Weather Radar (again it is not picking up some of the drizzle that is falling - freezing drizzle)
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Please visit your local NWS Office and click on each county for a detailed view of the expected forecast.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps
Stay safe while driving on roadways tonight. Significant travel problems are likely across much of the State of Kentucky.
December 15, 2010:
2:30 PM
Freezing rain and drizzle has started to fall over western Kentucky. Numerous reports of accidents over southeast Missouri.
Freezing rain and freezing drizzle will spread into southern Illinois and the rest of western Kentucky in the coming hours. Also developing on top of us.
It now appears that precipitation will turn to all rain late tonight over western Kentucky and far southern Illinois. Most likely along the Ohio River counties. Ice and mixed precip is more likely as you go north from there.
Roadways will be extremely hazardous this afternoon.
- Beau
December 15, 2010:
1 PM
Reports of some precipitation as far northeast as Fulton, Kentucky. KFVS Channel 12 viewers are reporting some freezing mist and drizzle over the MIssouri Bootheel.
Road surfaces are cold - any precipitation that hits the roads will likely freeze.
Temperatures are in the lower 30s over western Kentucky and far southern Illinois. As precipitation increases we should see temperatures fall a few degrees. Then later tonight they will start to rise again.
December 15, 2010:
Noon Update:
No changes in forecast. Winter weather advisories for all of our local area. Precipitation has started across portions of northeast Arkansas and western Tennessee.
Winter precipitation radar - starting to show an area of sleet and freezing rain developing over the southwest portion of our area. This will increase dramatically as we push later into the afternoon and evening hours.
RADAR
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
December 15, 2010:
Changes this morning: I will update around 11 am. I will update a second time around 3 or 4 pm this afternoon. So - please check back for the latest update.
Everyone is on the same page with this event - some minor differences in opinion on where the freezing line ends up - but this will have no significant impact on the outcome of the event. Slick roads are likely later this afternoon and tonight.
1. Slightly warmer temperatures today may help change the freezing rain, sleet, and snow to plain rain later tonight. Some questions remain on timing and placement of the rain/ice line. Let's focus on impact vs the exact details on whether we change to rain late tonight.
The NWS and others are having a difficult time forecasting the exact placement of the rain/ice boundary. I don't have any further insight than anyone else on this subject - it will come down to 1 or 2 degrees.
All of us - including the NWS to local media agree on precipitation totals - which will be light. Less than 0.30" for most of our immediate local counties. More as you go further northeast and east. Portions of Kentucky are expecting a fairly significant snow and ice event (further east of our immediate local counties).
Precipitation totals could be in the 0.25-0.50" range as you go further east in our area - this is especially true for central and eastern/northern Kentucky.
A winter weather event will impact our region later this afternoon and into tonight. Check back for updates today and tonight.
This is not a damaging ice storm for southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Amounts are forecast to be fairly light - I just want to make sure we are clear on that subject. :) I know we have become a bit nervous when we hear the word "ICE" in the forecast. But - let's try to get past that. Freezing rain (ice) is a common occurrence in our region. The mega-ice storms are rare. But these little events are fairly common and to be expected.
Remember that it takes only a small amount 0.01" of freezing rain to cause extremely hazardous road conditions. With this event - don't focus on the amount of ice - focus on the potential travel impacts. There has already been one death in northern Mississippi this morning because of freezing rain.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Chance for light snow, sleet, and freezing rain this afternoon and especially this evening and tonight. Freezing rain may change to plain rain late tonight over some of our counties.
Forecast:
Today - Cloudy and cold. A slight chance for sleet or snow this morning. A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain developing this afternoon and especially towards the evening hours.. High temperatures near 31 degrees. Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph. ANY freezing rain that falls will cause slick roadways. That is the focus for this event - slick roads.
Tonight - A mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain - changing to all freezing rain (light accumulations of freezing rain - less than 0.25"). Freezing rain may change to rain late this evening or early Thursday morning - before ending. Temperatures steady or slowing rising to near 34 degrees. Precipitation may stay all frozen as you move north in southern Illinois - towards Carbondale, Illinois to Evansville, Indiana. Areas further south will have the better chance of turning to rain. Stay tuned for updates. Either way - some travel problems are expected late this afternoon and tonight.
Thursday - Cloudy and cold. Precipitation ending early in the morning. A slight chance for rain or freezing rain or freezing drizzle in the afternoon. High temperatures in the middle 30s then falling temperatures in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Mostly cloudy. Low in the middle 20s. Watch for black ice (ice that melted earlier in the day and then refroze on road surfaces).
Friday - Mostly cloudy. High temperatures around 34 degrees.
Your up to the minute latest National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including winter precipitation radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.10-30.40" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
Kentucky Watches and Warnings - Click Here
Illinois Watches and Warnings - Click here
All watches and warnings - click here.
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Remember that sleet is little frozen ice pellets. Freezing rain is rain that falls into air that is below freezing - the rain then freezes on contact with surfaces. This causes ice accumulation on power lines, trees, and road surfaces.
Good morning! Not as cold this morning in our region. After yesterdays single digits (and even below zero readings) I think that most of us will appreciate the 20s we are waking up to this morning.
All eyes are on the developing winter storm that will impact our region over the coming 24-36 hour period. A variety of winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings have been issued for our region and the State of Kentucky.
The biggest question that remains for southern Illinois and western Kentucky is what time the precipitation begins and whether it will or will not turn to rain.
Right now it appears we will have a few scattered sleet or snow showers around the region this morning. The main activity will develop later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Precipitation will begin as a mixture of sleet and snow and quickly turn to a mixture of sleet pellets and freezing rain. By later this evening the precipitation will turn to all freezing rain over western Kentucky and far southern Illinois. A mixture of sleet and freezing rain/snow will likely continue well into the evening hours further to the north - say north of Carbondale to Evansville, Indiana.
Late tonight the current data indicates that temperatures may rise above 32 degrees. If this is the case then plain rain will fall. This will require temperatures to rise above 32 degrees - of course. Right now everything points to temperatures possibly rising to 33 or 34 degrees over some of our counties. TOUGH forecast and a difficult call on which counties turn to rain. Obviously the further south and southwest you travel the better chances for plain rain.
The best advice - plan on roadways becoming slick later this afternoon and evening. Slick roads will be possible well into tonight and tomorrow morning. If temperatures can rise a bit above freezing then well traveled roads will likely have less problems. Side roads and other roads will still be slick and hazardous.
It takes very little freezing drizzle or freezing rain to cause problems for travelers.
This is not forecast to be a damaging ice event in our region. The problems we are expecting will be slick and hazardous roadways. We do not and have never expected this to be a damaging ice event for trees and power lines.
Damaging ice WILL be possible across portions of central and eastern Kentucky. Please visit your local NWS for updated warnings in those areas.
I will monitor and update through the day - any changes will be posted at the top of this post.
All transportation districts are going to have problems with this event. Hopefully temperatures will warm enough to change some of the freezing drizzle and freezing rain to all rain. This will need to be monitored. The exact placement of the rain/ice line is still in question.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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