4 PM
This map is from the 18z NAM. The snow on the right is late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Then the middle (red) is ice. That is during the day on Wednesday. Then the NAM changes everything to rain on Wednesday night. This is for Paducah, Kentucky. Time table on this chart runs from right to left. This is one models opinion. I am leaning towards a blend of the GFS and NAM - which would bring precipitation into our area on Wednesday morning. Click for larger image.
December 13, 2010:
11 AM Update
Here is the latest freezing rain/ice map from the NAM Model. Parts of Kentucky may have quite a bit of ice - right now it appears areas to our east. GFS is weaker and shows less accumulation.
Anyway - here is the latest map - click to make the image larger. (This map shows ice accumulation - ice means freezing rain)
December 13, 2010:
A winter storm may impact our region on Wednesday into Thursday. Check back for updates through today and Tuesday.
Remember that it takes only a small amount 0.01" of freezing rain to cause extremely hazardous road conditions.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:
Bitterly cold wind chill values and low temperatures today into Tuesday morning.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Flurries will move out this morning. Chance for freezing drizzle late Tuesday night.
Forecast:
Today - Partly sunny. Very cold. High temperatures near 18-20 degrees. Wind chills in the single digits to below zero at times. North/northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Higher gusts in open areas and on area lakes.
Tonight - Bitterly cold. Clear. Low temperature near zero. Northwest wind at 10 mph.
Tuesday - Partly cloudy. Cold. High near 23 degrees. Light winds.
Tuesday night - Cloudy and cold. A slight chance for freezing drizzle or light snow late. Low temperatures in the upper teens.
Wednesday - Winter storm threat. A chance for sleet, snow, and freezing rain. High temperatures around 31 degrees.
Your up to the minute latest National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.00-30.20" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Good morning!
We are waking up to bitterly cold air this morning. Also a blanket of snow. I can't say that I was pleased with my forecast for this past event. I was leaning more towards a dusting to 1" of snow over our southwest counties into the Paducah area to around 2" near Evansville. What we ended up with was a dusting in our southwest counties and widespread 1-4" amounts elsewhere. More than expected.
Thus the nature of predicting winter weather events in our region - tricky. Also a good reminder as to why you should check back often before and during winter storm events. Forecasts can and do change.
This was also the first time I have used the Snowstorm scale that I developed last year. It seemed to work well this time around. A category one system for southern Illinois and western Kentucky. A fairly common event.
Snowfall totals (preliminary) from the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service Office - click here.
Snow continues over portions of central and eastern Kentucky - this will continue through today in some counties.
Very cold weather will persist through the rest of today and into tomorrow. Highs will struggle to get out of the teens. Most of us will remain below 20 degrees for the rest of the day. Lows tonight will be the coldest of the season - thus far. Expect most areas to be around 4-8 degrees.
Here is the forecast lows for Tuesday morning - as you can see the air temperature will be in the single digits over the entire region. WELL below normal.
Another winter storm is forecast to move into our region from the south and west on Tuesday night and Wednesday. At this time it appears that light freezing drizzle or snow will develop on Wednesday morning - perhaps before sunrise over portions of our region. There is some question on the timing. Watch for updates.
Freezing rain will increase over our region during the day on Wednesday. Right now it appears the main threat will be hazardous driving conditions. The amount of freezing rain over southern Illinois and western Kentucky should be on the light side. However, there is some new data that indicates higher amounts will be possible over portions of the region. Again - check back for updates.
BUFKIT soundings (what I use to look at the upper atmosphere) indicates warmer temps just above the surface on Wednesday. Normally this means freezing rain - especially if the cold layer is shallow and the warm layer above is thicker. Right now (subject to change) that is what it appears we will receive.
This winter storm will need to be closely monitored. If the NAM is correct then quite a bit of ice will be possible across portions of the State of Kentucky. If the GFS is correct then lesser amounts can be expected. The GFS did better on this last system than the NAM. Past events - similar to the upcoming one - have produced at least some freezing drizzle and freezing rain in our region - mixed with sleet. So, climatological history would lean towards that outcome.
It is still too soon to make a call on exact amounts. It is also too soon to know where the freezing rain/rain line will end up. This will be critical for forecasting accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. All of the above is also assuming that this system develops as currently forecast - and that it isn't further south than forecast. As you can see - quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast. Confidence is low - at this time.
The following map shows you the temperature forecast for Wednesday morning - the second map is for Wednesday afternoon. Close call on temperatures - a few degrees could make a big difference in our sensible weather.
Wednesday morning lows - map above
The map above shows temperatures for Wednesday afternoon and evening. The temperatures maps were provided by www.wright-weather.com
None of the current data indicates heavy ice over our immediate local counties (far southern Illinois and far western Kentucky). Some of the data indicates heavier totals to our east or near our region.
Here is what the NAM is showing for the next storm - the NAM is one model that I use for forecasting. The GFS model is weaker with this next storm. There are differences in opinions on how this unfolds. So - again - stay tuned for updates. The map below is showing QPF (precipitation totals).
This next map is for eastern Kentucky. As you can see the NAM is predicting quite a bit of precipitation for that area. A significant winter storm is certainly possible - but not for certain just yet. Remember - when it comes to freezing rain or freezing drizzle it does not take hardly any accumulation to cause dangerous driving conditions.
The map below is freezing rain accumulation from the NAM - you can see it is indicating some potential for accumulating freezing rain over the region.
The HPC (part of NOAA and NWS) has put out this ice forecast for Wednesday. It shows the probability of freezing rain during the 24 hour period beginning at 7 am Wednesday morning and ending around 7 am Thursday morning.
Stay tuned for updates. I will try and update this afternoon after I review the latest data.
December is going to go down in the record books as well below normal. I would not be surprised it it ranks in the top 10 coldest Decembers on record. Here is the latest month to date temperature departure map. Quite amazing. Click for larger image (as all images on this page).
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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