Evening Update:
No big changes. A bit colder tonight in areas where the clouds have thinned out. Parts of southern Illinois will dip into the teens. The far southern part might be upper teens and lower 20s - colder north.
Ring around the moon tonight is caused by ice crystals - high up in the atmosphere as a disturbance passes to our south.
Still watching the Monday night into Tuesday time frame. I believe the bulk of the precipitation will be to our north and east/northeast. Expecting 2-4" swath of snow across portion s of Indiana into Ohio and then will have to see how far south and east that swath will move as it enters central or eastern Kentucky.
I am a big fan of the European model - it takes the main low to our south - best energy, though - comes in from the northwest and is a bit northeast of our region. Combination of both should give us at least a chance for some precipitation. Too soon to know if temps will be warm enough for plain rain.
I can't get the European snowfall map - (at least not one I can post for public due to copyright agreements) - but I can post you the GFS - you get the general idea of what is expected. Now - this could shift north or south - depending on storm track. We will watch it in the coming days.
A blend of the GFS/Euro would still give us mostly rain in our local counties.
Right now - for our immediate local counties - possible some light precipitation during that time frame. But - doesn't look like a big event. Still some time to tweak the forecast.
Long range - signals for our region to be in the battle zone between the warmth to the south and cold to the north. That puts us in a tricky forecast region. Active - appears to be on tap the last 2 weeks of December. We will have to wait and see if we can pull some snow out of this pattern.
Some indications of more arctic blasts in the coming weeks - intermingled with periods of above normal temperatures. Although it appears there would be more below normal temperature days than above.
- Beau
December 17, 2010:
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Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Very little chance of precipitation - can't rule out a stray splatter of drizzle or a flurry. Otherwise nothing significant.
Forecast:
Today - Partly to mostly cloudy. A slight chance for flurries. Cold. High near 33 degrees. Northwest winds at 5 mph.
Tonight - Cloudy and cold. Slight chance for a snow flurry. Low temperatures in the lower 20s. Light winds.
Saturday - Partly cloudy. Cold. High near 34 degrees. Light winds.
Saturday night - Partly cloudy. Cold. Low temperatures around 20 degrees.
Sunday - Partly sunny. Cold. High near 34-36 degrees.
A small chance for light rain/freezing rain or light snow Monday night and Tuesday - will have to monitor the system in the coming days.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.90-30.20" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here
Good morning!
Hope everyone is prepared for a cold weekend - but otherwise not too bad. I don't expect any travel problems - outside of what is still on the roads across portions of our area (parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois still have a lot of snow and ice on roadways. Otherwise - western Kentucky should not experience any problems.
Below normal temperatures have been the rule for most of December. This is going to continue.
Let's take a look at this incredible map - this is the month to date departures. These are extraordinary numbers. No doubt this is going to be one of the colder Decembers for the eastern part of the nation in many many years. Click images for larger views.
The below maps are showing the maximum temperature departures from normal for the upcoming weekend - basically how many degrees below normal the high temperatures will be.
The above map is for Saturday - you can see the blue area - that is below normal temperatures.
The above map is for Sunday - again you can see that temperatures will be below normal. This has been the rule for December.
I am watching a storm system for Monday night into Tuesday. At this time it appears some light snow and light rain will be possible across our region and areas of the Ohio Valley. It is still a bit early to make a call on accumulation and storm track. Watch for updates in the coming days.
Let's take a quick look at a few weather maps from www.wright-weather.com. The first map is the surface map and the next two maps are showing areas of lift and clouds. The bulk of the precip is forecast to be to our east. This will be dependent on storm track. Which is still a bit uncertain. Again :) - stay tuned for updates this weekend. Click for larger image.
The above image is the forecast weather map for Monday evening. You can see some light precipitation trying to break out. Especially to our north and east. This system will have a bit of a struggle pulling in moisture. Still some time to watch this system.
The above map is for Monday evening - basically it is showing you areas of lift - the shaded areas are usually cloudy and the thicker the hatch and the brighter the colors - the better chance of precipitation. In layman terms - basically means a chance for snow or rain. Temperatures should be cold enough for snow. Again - still some time to watch this event.
The above map is for late Monday night. Again - area of lift over or near our region.
I am also watching a potential storm or two for the December 26-31st time frame. Too far out for any certainties on storm track or strength. Plenty of time to keep an eye on those. Active end to the month of December? Stay tuned :)
Below normal temperatures will continue into next week.
Let's take a look at Christmas Eve. The GFS is showing a small area of precipitation near our region. This is way too far out to make a forecast. But - I thought it was interesting. We will watch the trends in the coming days and update the Christmas Eve and Christmas day forecast!
The above map is for Christmas Eve. You can see some light snow or mixed precipitation in our region. Again - this is just too far out to make a forecast. This type of northwest flow that we are in can bring in small clipper type systems that produce quick hitting small snowfall events. We will watch it in the coming days and update the travel forecast for the holidays.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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