No more updates tonight - lot of new data is coming in at this hour. However, I am going to get up early tomorrow morning to do a lengthy blog update. No video tomorrow - might do something tomorrow night.
Going to focus on updating the email and blog - tomorrow morning. Most likely will update around 7-8 am.
- Beau
December 21, 2010:
1 PM Update
Couple of maps - one is the GFS snowfall forecast and the second map is the NAM model. I can tell you that one of our better models is showing only a dusting for western Kentucky and perhaps a few inches to our east. There is a higher than normal amount of uncertainty with this developing storm.
I will maintain my current forecast for the low to track through Arkansas and into Mississippi/Alabama. I will be surprised if it tracks all the way into the Gulf of Mexico - as one set of data is showing.
Next update will be late this afternoon or evening.
Here are what two models are showing:
December 21, 2010:
Next update will be around 830 AM and again around 3 PM (brief updates)
I have put together a detailed video concerning this upcoming storm - I have updated the video-cast this morning.
REMEMBER - in order for the forecast thoughts on the video to pan out - we absolutely have to have the storm track correct or close to correct. If this storm tracks MUCH further south than expected or even much further north then the forecast would change dramatically.
The video is made with some basic forecast assumptions already being made (which in winter that is asking a lot). We all know how tricky these winter weather precipitation events can be.
You can view the video by clicking here.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
If you would like to be added to my email list then please email me and request to be added - I usually send out an email when something significant is occurring or forecast to occur. Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Some light snow and flurries across the northern half of our area and northeast part of our region.
Forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky:
Today - A slight chance for light rain mainly before noon. Patchy drizzle otherwise. High temperatures near 50 degrees.
Tonight - Cloudy. Cool. Low temperature around 30 degrees.
Wednesday - Partly sunny. Cool. High temperature near 38 degrees.
Wednesday Night -Partly cloudy and cold. Increasing clouds. Low around 24 degrees.
Thursday - Increasing clouds. Cold. High temperature near 38 degrees.
Thursday night - Cloudy and cold. Low around 28.
Friday - A good chance of snow and sleet. Some accumulation is possible. High in the lower 30s.
Friday night - A good chance for light snow. Colder. Windy. Lows in the 20s.
Saturday - A chance for light snow or flurries. Colder. High in the 20s. West/northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
I am watching apotent storm for Thursday night into Christmas Day. This storm may spread a mixed bag of precipitation into our region on Friday morning. Timing and exact track of this system is still uncertain.
Anyone with travel plans on Thursday into Saturday should check road conditions and the latest forecasts - watches - warnings.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed on the Weather Observatory web-site - click here.
Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.85 - 30.10" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
-----------------
You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here
One NWS graphics for you this morning. This graphic is brought to you by the NWS Office in Louisville, Kentucky. Exact timing of this system is still in question. The latest data suggests that much of the precipitation will hold off until Friday morning over western Kentucky and then spread east during the day. Click graphic to enlarge.
An area of precipitation is forecast to develop over our region on Thursday night and Friday morning. There are a lot of questions this morning concerning what type of precipitation our local region will experience. Stay tuned for updates.
As colder air moves in behind the area of low pressure whatever precipitation is left over is forecast to change back to light snow or flurries on Friday afternoon and Friday night.
The exact track of this storm will determine exactly what type of precipitation we can expect over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. This storm has the potential to cause quite a few travel problems over portions of the central United States into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes - possibly even as far south as the Tennessee Valley (depending on track).
Some travel problems are also expected over our region and the State of Kentucky.
A few graphics for you: These graphics are brought to you by www.wright-weather.com - this is the website that I use for much of my weather data.
This is what the radar is forecast to look like at 7 am on Friday. The blue area is snow and the green area is rain.
The above map shows the expected temperatures at 1 am on Monday morning. As you can see - bitterly cold air is expected to once again invade our region (par for the course).
The above map shows the expected temperature at 1 am on Tuesday morning - these are not even the low temperatures. As you can see - more cold.
The above map shows you the temperatures expected at 1 am on Wednesday morning. Cold. Bitterly cold. If snow does cover much of the Ohio Valley then some areas can expect single digit or below zero readings.
Stay tuned for updates - especially if you have travel plans.
One last map - above. This is one model - the EC - which is normally a great model to use for guidance. However, it isn't always correct. This shows the area of low pressure so far to the south that our region would only experience flurries or light snow.
Most of the data has been trending south with this system - the NAM and GFS, as well. Just how far south appears to be the main question at this time. As far south as the EC? Or a blend of the GFS and EC? Either way it would mean mainly snow for our region.
Obviously there are still questions on how this storm unfolds and the eventual track.
I will update through the day and into the coming days!
Have a GREAT and SAFE holiday season!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
No comments:
Post a Comment