Afternoon update -
New numbers show even less snow. Definitely not looking like a big event. Will stick with the forecast for 1/2"-1" over the central and southern portion of our region and 1-3" over the northern part of the region.
Northern part of area would basically be from near Farmington, MO to Evansville, Indiana.
For preparation purposes it would be best to plan of 1-3". If it is a bit less than that then don't be disappointed. If it is a little more for some of our northern counties then you will have been prepared.
Winter weather advisories will likely be issued for portions or all of our region over the coming 12 hours. Mainly for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night and Saturday morning.
A wintry mix will be possible next Wednesday and Thursday. Long way off and our focus is on event number 1 - first.
- Beau
December 23, 2010:
Let me first say this - for those who have to travel (in any direction).
Snow is expected to break out over the Missouri Valley later tonight and tomorrow morning. Snow will move into our region during late morning and afternoon hours on Friday. Then across the rest of our area on Friday evening and Friday night.
DO NOT be surprised if western Kentucky and far southern Illinois do not see ANY flakes until very late afternoon or even into the evening hours.
The snow will spread east/southeast through the evening hours and cover the rest of the State of Kentucky by Friday evening and Friday night.
The above graphic is from the NWS Office out of Nashville, Tennessee.
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I will update through the day - if there are changes. Didn't feel a need to update yesterday because I don't see any changes (for our region).
All of the trends are towards less snow vs more. I will hold with my original forecast for our region. 1/2" to 3". More as you go north and northwest and less as you move southward.
There are still a lot of questions on this storm. Changes could still be made to the forecast.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
If you would like to be added to my email list then please email me and request to be added - I usually send out an email when something significant is occurring or forecast to occur. Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Snow likely on Friday afternoon late over our west and northwest areas and into the rest of the area Friday evening and night.
Forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky:
Today - Partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper 30s. North winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Tonight - Cloudy. Cool. Low temperature around 26-30 degrees. Northeast wind 5-10 mph.
Friday - A good chance of snow and sleet during the late afternoon hours. High in the middle 30s with falling temperatures late in the day. Northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
Friday night - A good chance for light snow. Colder. Windy. Lows in the middle 20s. Light accumulation of snow possible.
Saturday - A chance for light snow or flurries. Colder. High in the upper 20s and lower 30s. West/northwest winds at 10-15 mph. Total snow accumulation of 1/2"-3" across our area. More to the northwest and less to the south/southwest.
Saturday night - Flurries. Colder. Low near 23 degrees. West/northwest winds at 15 mph.
Sunday - Cloudy. Some flurries or light snow. Colder. High in the upper 20s. West/northwest winds at 15 mph.
Anyone with travel plans on Friday into Saturday should check road conditions and the latest forecasts - watches - warnings.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed on the Weather Observatory web-site - click here.
Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.20 - 30.50" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here
Two main areas of precipitation are expected to develop on Friday. One will be to our north and northwest and the other will be to our south and southwest. Two pieces of energy. The system to our north and northwest will attempt to merge with the southern system.
All of the above means a chance for light snow over all of our area. Earlier in the week we thought the light snow might arrive on Thursday night and then it was pushed off until Friday morning. It now appears that the bulk of the snow will hold off until late on Friday and Friday night. This could be good news for those who have travel plans on Thursday or Friday morning.
At this time, I am expecting 1/2" to 3" of snow over our region. It would not take much of a change in this storm system to bring less than those amounts - and we always end up with a bit of banding in these type of systems. These bands produce slightly heavier snow. We noticed that during the last event.
I have to add that there is some model data that continues to show our region receiving nothing more than a few flurries. However, this is being discounted based out it being an outlier. I thought I would continue to mention that fact. It seems like these snow systems are always difficult to forecast in our region.
Here are a couple of graphics for you this morning
The first graphic is the NAM forecasted snowfall amounts and the second map is for the GFS. Again - this is just what the models are showing. It gives you a general idea. The EC model shows us receiving flurries.
Some local NWS graphics
Expect very cold temperatures as we move into early next week. I am also watching a potential storm system for the end of the month.
Expect our region to see lows in the single digits and teens next week. Bitterly cold.
December will go down in the record books as one of the colder Decembers on record. Quite amazing.
Big storm still possible around December 30th through January 2nd.
Have a GREAT and SAFE holiday season!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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