-----------------
Transportation Cabinet: Districts 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 may experience winter precipitation this weekend - listen for updates from your local offices. Some light snow or flurries are possible before Saturday and Saturday night (small system tomorrow will move through the region) - however, the main concern will be on Saturday and Saturday night (my forecast is for the area of low pressure to be further south and west than models indicate - thus impacting portions of central and eastern Kentucky). Especially for districts 6, 9, 10, 11 and 12.
Next update will be Thursday between 8 am and 9 am
-----------------
Click images for a larger view - all images on this page can be made larger.
A few maps from the late morning and afternoon model runs (this is the NAM and the first three maps are from www.wright-weather.com). The exact track of this low pressure area moving in from the northwest on Saturday is still in question. If the low tracks further south then the snow/rain line will be further south and southwest. The exact track of this area of low pressure will need to be monitored. Please check back for updates - also Chris Bailey is covering this storm (see link at the bottom of this post).
Winds will be gusty (over 20 mph) over the western half of the State of Kentucky on Saturday and across most of the state on Tuesday into Wednesday night.
Regardless of whether it snows or not on Saturday - the central and eastern districts will have a chance for rain. The question is where the rain/snow line will be. Colder temperatures behind the system could also cause some leftover moisture (from the rain or melted snow) on the roadways to freeze.
Temperatures will fall into the 20s on Saturday night over much of Kentucky (especially central areas eastward). Temperatures could fall into the teens in areas that receive snow (mainly districts 6 and 9). Temperatures next week - state wide - will likely fall into the teens on several mornings (Monday into Thursday). If snow does accumulate over portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northern and eastern Kentucky then low temperatures could dip as low as the single digits (IL,IN) into the lower teens (KY). Again - that would be areas impacted with accumulating snow.
The official NWS low temperatures for next week may need to be lowered anywhere from 8 to 15 degrees.
Here is a forecast map for next Wednesday morning - this might be a bit too cold, however, you get the general idea. Some of the coldest air so far this season is likely to impact the state. These are the GFS forecasted low temperatures. Remember - the GFS has a cold bias. However, I do believe it will be quite cold across the State of Kentucky.
I continue to forecast December to bring colder than normal weather for our region.
Saturday morning radar - NAM model depiction - shows an area of snow to the north of Kentucky. Spreading south and southeast.
Saturday afternoon - snow in blue. The green area indicates mostly rain.
Saturday evening - around 7 pm. I believe there may still be some snow further west into Kentucky at this time - the NAM may be a little fast in moving precipitation out of the state. Main concern would likely be district 6, 9, 10, and 11. Again - keep in mind - this is still several days away.
The above maps are just one model opinion. I believe the system may track a bit further south and southwest than currently forecast by the NAM (the model shown above) and could be a tad stronger than the NAM is showing. That means that the path of snow would likely shift towards the south and west in future model runs - do not surprised to see these maps adjusted westward - that would be some frozen precipitation chances over central and eastern Kentucky.
The above map is the snowfall forecast through Saturday evening. Many times model do not handle the exact placement of snow or snow totals correctly. However, this gives you a general idea of where snow may fall on Saturday and Saturday night. As you can see - the heaviest band is expected to be to our north.
This next map (below) shows just how close the snow line may be to the State of Kentucky. Any shift in this storms path would bring the heavier snow further south and southwest. The districts mentioned above should monitor the path of this storm.
It is possible that portions of Kentucky (above mentioned districts) could have frozen precipitation on Saturday and Saturday night. Some light snow is also possible on Thursday - tomorrow's event is not expected to be as widespread as the Saturday into Saturday night system.
A few more maps from the SREF (ensembles modeling) - these are for the weekend system (Saturday).
The above map shows 12 hour snowfall totals - this would be on Friday and Friday night. You can see the system moving southeast from the Minnesota and Iowa/Illinois.
The above map shows the 12 hour snowfall forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning (early).
The above map shows the 12 hour snowfall forecast - this would be for Saturday and Saturday afternoon (from 6 am through 6 pm).
The above map shows the SREF forecast for precipitation type being snow. Again you can see that the main threat for snow it to our north. The exact track of the low pressure will determine how this eventually unfolds. We are still several days away from the event. So, expect some shifts.
Finally - the above map shows the 6 hour probability of new snow or ice on roads. This is for the Saturday morning - late morning time period. Again, you can see that the main concern is still a bit to our north.
The HPC has a new map out, as well - this gives you the probability of 1" or more of snow in a 24 hour period (this would basically cover the Saturday event)
Let's take a quick look at the system for tomorrow. This is what the radar is forecast to look like tomorrow morning and early afternoon - you can see a small area of light rain/snow mix moving through portions of Kentucky.
I will be away from the area on Thursday through next Friday. However, I will try to update the blog each morning - as always.
Otherwise, please visit Chris Bailey's web-site - as well.
Beau
Meteorological Adviser for the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet
---------------------
December 1, 2010:
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Chance for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0% (possible flurry mainly east/northeast of us on Thursday)
Today - Some clouds this morning then Partly sunny and chilly. High around 42 degrees. West wind 10 mph.
Tonight: A few clouds. Chilly. Low near 21-24 degrees. South wind at 5 mph.
Thursday: Partly sunny. A few sprinkles or flurries possible towards Evansville and east of that area. Cool. High temperature in the lower to middle 40s. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Your local National Weather Service seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.00-30.30" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
-----------------
Transportation Cabinet: Districts 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 may experience winter precipitation this weekend - listen for updates from your local offices. Some light snow or flurries are possible before Saturday and Saturday night - however, the main event will be on Saturday and Saturday night. Especially for districts 6, 9, 10, 11 and 12.
-----------------
Meteorological winter has arrived! Meteorologists divide the seasons up into three month segments. December 1st through the end of February is considered winter.
A few snowflakes were reported in the region yesterday. Although, I did not see any of them. There were several reports of them from area residents. Nothing major - of course. Colder air also filtered in yesterday - I am sure you can tell a different in the temperatures this morning. It is December - so I guess we should expect colder weather! Nothing unusual about that.
A few snow flurries continue this morning over portions of Indiana and Kentucky - to our east. No significant accumulation is expected.
A weak system will approach our region on Thursday. I suspect this will produce some very light snow/rain/flurries across portions of portions of Kentucky - again - more to our north and east. Any accumulation would be light - if at all. This is probably the disturbance I am least concerned with.
A stronger clipper type system will approach our region from the northwest on Saturday. This will spread a band of rain and snow across portions of Illinois and Indiana/Ohio. The exact track of this area of low pressure will determine where the snow/rain ends up falling. Portions of our region - especially to our north and east could experience some light snowfall. Areas further south along the low pressure track would be rain. This is a feature I will be keeping my eye on. Trends on the models are for a deeper low. That normally means better lift and a better chance of precipitation.
At this time I expect mostly light rain chances over our immediate local area on Saturday or Saturday afternoon - the snow line would probably be a bit to our north and east. Portions of central and eastern/northern Kentucky (also northern Illinois, Indiana into Ohio) could see some snowfall with accumulations. I have been collaborating with Chris Bailey on that portion of the State of Kentucky and refer you to his discussion, as well.
I would not be surprised to see a band of 2-3" snows over portions of the Ohio Valley from that system. I suspect it will be to our northeast and east. Perhaps across portions of Indiana/Ohio/northern Kentucky and eastern Kentucky. However, I will keep an eye on the exact track and update if I think the outcome will be different. An early call on my part for that system. So, if you live in those areas then you should monitor the latest forecast.
Let's take a look at one snowfall forecast that covers the next few days - you can see hints of that system as it dives southeast out of the northern United States - spreading a band of snow across IL/IN/OH/KY. Normally these things trend south - a bit. If so then that area of snow could be a bit further south - not in our region so much - but areas to our north/northeast/east. Let's watch these maps in the coming days and see if we get a bit of a shift to the south.
I am still waiting and watching the December 7th storm that we have been talking about for the last week or two. Still no confidence in the forecast that far out. A watch and wait situation - as many of these potential winter events are going to be. See more discussion on that event at the bottom of the page.
Let's review the fall forecast - now that we are moving into meteorological winter. What is meteorological winter - you may ask. Well, I have the answer right here!
My fall forecast was for below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures - when everything was averaged out for the three month period (September through November). Click the linked area above to read the fall forecast in its entirety.
Here are the 90 day maps for precipitation - click on the maps for larger views (as always on the blog postings)
This is the percent of normal precipitation - as you can see the last 90 days averaged out below normal in the precip department. It was dry. That is not secret. The drought maps confirm that fact. See the next map for the drought conditions - dry dry dry for most of the fall season. Until the last few weeks, that is!
Let's widen the view a bit - this is the whole nation (above map) for the last 90 days. The yellow and orange areas are dry or below normal precipitation for the past 90 days.
The above map is showing temperatures from August 1st through the end of October. As you can see we averaged quite warm. The November map is below - it shows the warm trend continued through much of the last month.
I had thought that November might end up below normal in the temperature department. It ended up mixed in our region - more above normal than below across many of our counties. Although the maps indicate some counties ended up normal to slightly below. So, I don't consider my November temperature forecast to have been very good.
I had forecasted the middle to end of November to become active with storm systems - and that is how we ended up. As a matter of fact - many areas have received more rainfall in the last 2 weeks than they have seen in the last two months put together!
Let's take a look at the last week - percent of normal precipitation (map below from November 23-29th). See anything different than the last few months? Yes - lots of precipitation!
And the second half of November - much improved from recent months (map below is from November 16th-November 29th).
Looking ahead - I am forecasting a cold December with below normal temperatures. I am predicting above normal temperatures for January and February. You can read my winter forecast by clicking here.
The official NWS 8-14 day outlook indicates that probabilities favor below normal temperatures for the first 2 weeks of December.
And once again - let me touch on the system for December 6th-8th. Remember the system we were watching for next week? Potential winter precipitation event. Well, the data continues to be sketchy at best on this system. A lot of the ensemble data (remember ensembles are the same computer model but they change some of the parameters and run it multiple times) indicates the system will stay mostly to our south or will not happen at all. Right now - this is not looking like it will be a big event for our region. However, we will just have to continue to wait and watch. I am not a gambler - so I won't roll the dice on that one - just yet.
I will show you what the ensembles show. They are showing a potential precipitation maker for that time period. I give this about a 10 or 15% chance of actually impacting our region. Not overly optimistic.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
No comments:
Post a Comment