Next update will be later this afternoon or evening. Updates through the week.
As always there is a high amount of uncertainty as to how this storm unfolds. A slight shift in track would have significant impacts on the final forecast.
No video today - going to cover everything in the blog and email update.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
If you would like to be added to my email list then please email me and request to be added - I usually send out an email when something significant is occurring or forecast to occur. Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%.
Forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky:
Today - Partly sunny with high temperatures in the upper 30s. North winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Tonight - Cloudy. Cool. Low temperature around 24-26 degrees. Northeast wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday - Partly sunny. Cool. High temperature near 38 degrees. East winds around 5 mph.
Thursday night - Cloudy and cold. Low around 26-28. East winds at 5 mph.
Friday - A good chance of snow and sleet during the afternoon (perhaps late afternoon). Some light accumulation is possible. High in the middle 30s with falling temperatures late in the day. Northeast winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
Friday night - A good chance for light snow. Colder. Windy. Lows in the middle 20s.
Saturday - A chance for light snow or flurries. Colder. High in the upper 20s and lower 30s. West/northwest winds at 10-15 mph. Total snow accumulation of 1/2"-3" across our area.
Anyone with travel plans on Friday into Saturday should check road conditions and the latest forecasts - watches - warnings.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed on the Weather Observatory web-site - click here.
Your regional and local radars - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.00 - 30.30" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here
Here are two maps from the HPC this morning - the first one shows you the probability of 2" or more of snow- This would be for Friday afternoon into Saturday. The second map shows where light freezing rain could occur during the same time frame.
The above image is the NAM snowfall forecast - again just a computer model that I use for guidance.
Some changes this morning as we have a better idea of how this storm system is going to unfold. All of the data has shifted southward over the last 24 hours for the track of the winter storm. This is a huge score for the European model as it was the first to catch on to the idea that the main storm may track as far south as the Gulf of Mexico - I was quite skeptical of this solution. However, since that time other data has moved towards the same solution.
With that in mind and after looking at everything else - this is how I see this unfolding (and the event is still several days away - so I will need to update and tweak the final forecast, of course).
Two main areas of precipitation are expected to develop on Friday. One will be to our north and northwest and the other will be to our south and southwest. Two pieces of energy. The system to our north and northwest will attempt to merge with the southern system.
All of the above means a chance for light snow over all of our area. Earlier in the week we thought the snow might arrive on Thursday night and then it was pushed off until Friday morning. It now appears that the bulk of the snow will hold off until late on Friday and Friday night. This could be good news for those who have travel plans on Thursday or Friday morning.
At this time, I am expecting 1/2" to 3" of snow over our region. It would not take much of a change in this storm system to bring less than those amounts. That is my first call on this system.
As all of you know (from living in this region) one can never count their snowflakes before they hatch. With that in mind - I will update the forecast over the coming days. At this point nothing would surprise me with this storm. I have seen similar storms produce very little in the way of precipitation.
Of course if the storm were to move further north then we would need to adjust our numbers higher. Still a lot of uncertainty surrounding this system.
The actual storm won't be sampled by the models until today. That means that the model runs should be in better agreement on how this entire storm unfolds.
Expect very cold temperatures as we move into early next week. I am also watching a potential storm system for the end of the month.
Expect our region to see lows in the single digits and teens next week. Bitterly cold.
December will go down in the record books as one of the colder Decembers on record. Quite amazing. Now the big question is how does January and February turn out.
Stay tuned :)
Have a GREAT and SAFE holiday season!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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