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For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Cold temperatures could cause discomfort for those working outdoors. Take precautions if exposed to the cold for prolonged periods of time.
Chance for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0% Few flurries - with all the cold air. Better snow chances over eastern Kentucky.
Today - Partly sunny. Cold. A few flurries around with all the cold air. High temperatures in the lower/middle 30s. Northwest winds at 10 mph.
Tonight - Mostly Clear. Cold. Low temperature around 14-15 degrees.
Tuesday - Few clouds. Cold. High temperatures around 34 degrees.
Tuesday Night - Clear cold. Low temperatures around 12-14 degrees.
Watching a storm system for Saturday and Sunday - too soon to make a call. Rain and thunderstorms or snow? Stay tuned.
Your local National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.30-30.50" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Cold air has invaded the region! December is off to a cold start. That will continue for the near term. Below normal temperatures are forecast - overall - for the next 7-10 days.
The long range data indicates cold wave after cold wave for the next few weeks. Now, this is no surprise for those who follow the forecasts and blog information - our winter forecast has been for December to be cold - a cold start to meteorological winter. This would be followed by above normal temperatures in January and February. It appears we have the December part of the forecast heading in the right direction. Time will tell on the rest of winter.
I am keeping an eye on a storm system for the upcoming weekend - December 11th and 12th. A clipper system will approach from the northwest and may combine with some energy from the southern United States. There should be enough cold air in place for a rain/snow mix or all snow over our region and the State of Kentucky. Some data indicates the potential for a significant winter weather event across portions of the Ohio Valley. If this were to occur then a more widespread snow event may be in the cards.
It is still too soon to start talking about accumulations or certainty on this particular system. I would enjoy a little bit of snow for the holidays - but I know how easy it is to find oneself burned by forecasting snow this far out. We shall use caution. Watch the trends. Update accordingly.
Last nights data had a storm track anywhere from Iowa to Tennessee. That is a WIDE spread on the model data. A track to our south would be snow - a track through Iowa would mean thunderstorms for our region. Ahhh - the fun of winter in the Ohio Valley.
One thing is for certain - the cold weather is going to continue into next week.
Stay tuned.
Here is what the EC Ensemble map is showing for next Sunday. IF true then this would cause a lot of problems across portions of Illinois into Indiana and Ohio. Also portions of Kentucky - perhaps. This would of course depend on the exact track. As we all know - track is key with these type of storm systems. Click image for a larger view. You can see the low tracking through Kentucky. A path that favors rain in many areas of Kentucky and Tennessee after a period of snow and ice. Then snow once again on the backside of the low.
Again - way too early to make a forecast on this system - if it develops at all. But, it is something I will be following and tracking in the coming days.
Otherwise - expect lows tomorrow morning (Tuesday) to once again fall into the teens. Wednesday morning will also bring lows in the teens - temperatures will "warm" into the 20s by Thursday morning. Check the seven day forecast link above for updated temperature forecasts.
Here is what the NAM is forecasting for morning low temperatures tonight and for Tuesday night. The first map is for 7 am tomorrow morning and the second map is for 7 am Wednesday morning. Single digits in areas with snow on the ground (to our north/northeast/east). These images are from my favorite source for model data - www.wright-weather.com Click images for a larger view.
Thursday morning lows will still be quite cold across the United States. Fairly impressive reach of cold weather.
Let's take a quick look at the snowfall forecast for today through Wednesday. Some snow is likely over portions of eastern Kentucky. This is not showing up well on some of the models. However, this gives you a general idea of where snow is forecast over the next couple of days.
For those of you who are interested in lake effect snow - check out these bands of snow showing up on the WRF model. Great representation of how snow forms in bands because of wind coming across the Great Lakes. Winds have to be just right in order to form these bands of snow. Click here for more information on how lake effect snow forms. Buffalo, New York received up to 3' of snow last week because of these bands.
Here is a special graphic that the NWS Office in Buffalo, New York made for the public. You can see the extremely heavy snow bands. These are actually snowfall totals that have already fallen. Click for larger image.
The maps below show where new bands may set up over the next few days. These maps are from micro-models. They do well in forecasting lake effect snow in regional areas. Check out the band extending through southwest Michigan and northeast Indiana. Some very heavy snow is forecast for a few counties.
One last map - this is for Thursday, December 9th. This map shows you the 500 mb wind pattern. Check out the Pacific Northwest - another strong jet max (the purple colors) is diving into the Rockies. We will have to watch this energy as it could have implications for the upcoming weekend.. Click image for larger view. Image is from www.wright-weather.com
This will be a TOUGH forecast - but isn't that what makes them all fun? Check these two maps out. The first map is the forecasted surface map for Saturday night and Sunday. A significant winter storm is moving into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. There is enough warm air pulled into the storm to cause parts of western Kentucky to change to all rain. But - remember this is fantasy land when it comes to weather. So, it would be foolish to make an actual forecast based on what this model is showing. It is just one more piece of the puzzle that I will be watching in the upcoming days.
Two maps - both from www.wright-weather.com
The first map (above) shows the low pressure moving into our region. Decent storm - if true. Plenty of moisture to work with.
The second map below is showing the temperatures a bit higher up in the atmosphere. Notice the plume of warmer air into west Kentucky? This is something we will be watching. Lot of potential - remember, though, that potential doesn't always make reality. Stay tuned for updates.
Here is that temp map for next weekend
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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