5 PM Update.
No changes in forecast. The NWS has issued winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings for the entire State of Kentucky. You can view the details of those advisories by clicking here.
Southern Illinois is under a winter weather advisory for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. You can view those details by clicking here.
Otherwise - light snow, sleet, and freezing rain will develop from southwest to northeast across our region tomorrow. Especially during the afternoon hours and into tomorrow night. ANY freezing drizzle or freezing rain will cause travel problems. Please use caution.
Precipitation may end as rain on Thursday morning. We will be within a couple of degrees of freezing. Tough call.
Precipitation amounts continue to look to be on the light side. I am still thinking 0.10-0.25" total - that includes all forms of precip.
I continue to believe the main threat from this storm is slick roadways. No problems with power lines or trees in our immediate local area.
Let's take a look at some maps from www.wright-weather.com - my choice for websites when it comes to model information.
This is the WRF - you can see on these maps what our surface temperatures are forecast to look like on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Notice - VERY little change. This is the biggest question mark - can the temperature struggle to reach above freezing late Wednesday night and Thursday.
The above map shows surface temperatures for tomorrow morning (Wednesday morning). This is around the 6 am - 8 am time frame.
The above map is for Wednesday evening - around the 6 pm to 8 pm time frame. Surface temperatures.
The above map is for Thursday morning. Again - very little movement of temperatures. Upper 20s and lower 30s.
The above map is what radar is expected to look like tomorrow afternoon - around noon to 2 pm. You can see the area of pink and blue (snow and ice). Moving northeast into our area. There is some disagreement on exactly what time the precipitation will arrive. So - the best advice is to be prepared tomorrow morning for some light frozen precipitation. I expect most of the precipitation will hold off until late tomorrow afternoon and especially tomorrow evening/night.
The above map is for late tomorrow afternoon. You can see the precipitation continue to develop and move into our local counties.
The above map is for tomorrow evening. Now - this is when there is some disagreement. See the green area. That is plain rain. I believe we will stay below freezing well into tomorrow night. We will tweak the forecast as this becomes more clear.
The above map is for Thursday morning - around 1 am. Precipitation continues.
The above map is for Thursday morning - around 8 am. You can see that precipitation is moving out of our region.
Next update will be late tonight.
Beau
December 14, 2010:
Next update will be between 3 and 5 pm.
Changes:
1. Slowed the timing down a bit for the precipitation on Wednesday.
2. I am thinking we stay all frozen for southern Illinois and a good part of western Kentucky. That means most areas will not change to plain rain (we stay all snow, sleet, and freezing rain). As you move closer to the Kentucky and Tennessee line then chances increase that temperatures go above freezing.
A winter weather event will impact our region on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Check back for updates through today and tonight.
Expect an assortment of winter weather advisories to be issued for most of the region later today or tonight for the upcoming event.
Remember that it takes only a small amount 0.01" of freezing rain to cause extremely hazardous road conditions. With this event - don't focus on the amount of ice - focus on the potential travel impacts.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:
Bitterly cold this morning with temperatures in the single digits.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Chance for light snow late tonight then a better chance of snow, sleet, and freezing rain and freezing drizzle as we move into Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Forecast:
Today - Increasing clouds. Cold. High temperatures near 22-24 degrees. South winds at 5 mph.
Tonight - Bitterly cold. Clear. Low temperature near zero. Northwest wind at 10 mph.
Tuesday night - Cloudy and cold. A slight chance for light snow or flurries late. Low temperatures in the upper teens.
Wednesday - Winter weather threat - especially late in the day. A chance for sleet, snow, and freezing rain. High temperatures around 28 degrees.
Wednesday night - Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain over most of the area. Chance for precipitation changing to rain along the Kentucky and Tennessee border. Light accumulations of ice. Less than 0.25". Heavier amounts possible as you go towards the east and northeast (towards Evansville and Madisonville). Low temperatures - steady in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Thursday - precipitation ending during the morning hours. High temperatures around 32 degrees.
Your up to the minute latest National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.10-30.40" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
All watches and warnings - click here.
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Here is a graphic that the Paducah, KY NWS placed on their web-site.
Good morning!
Once again it is cold. Well below normal temperatures continue to cover our region. Temperatures here at my place in Massac County have dipped as low as -1 this morning. I recorded 6 degrees yesterday morning. You can see all of the current conditions by clicking here.
December might very well go down in the record books as one of the top 10 coldest Decembers across portions of the eastern United States. Quite impressive.
Here is the current temperature map (around 8 am this morning). Just look at how much of the United States is being impacted by cold temperatures. Impressive. Image is from www.wright-weather.com
From what I can tell - the next 10-12 day period should average below normal in the temperature department with more cold air likely after that. December is just going to stay cold - for the most part.
Snow continues this morning over portions of eastern Kentucky. Some areas have received significant amounts across the southeast portion of the State of Kentucky and eastern mountains. Please visit Chris Bailey's site (bottom of page) for more information on that region.
Another winter storm is forecast to move into our region from the south and west on Tuesday night and Wednesday. I have tweaked the timing a bit more on this next event. Earlier it appeared that precipitation would would move in on Wednesday morning. Now it appears the bulk of the precipitation will hold off until Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night.
As mentioned in previous posts - the exact timing of the precipitation is still a bit uncertain. I will likely tweak it a bit further tonight when I get new data. It is not out of the question that there could be some light precipitation on Wednesday morning. However, if that were to occur then it would likely be in the form of light snow.
The main concern will arrive on Wednesday afternoon or evening. Light snow, sleet, and freezing rain/drizzle will develop from south to north in our region. Eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee will be impacted first by this precipitation. We will then see the frozen precipitation spread into southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/southern Illinois.
At this time I believe the precipitation will stay all frozen over southern Illinois and the Ohio River counties of western Kentucky. Areas closer to the Kentucky and Tennessee border may change to rain on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. This will need to be monitored.
I am currently forecasting precipitation amounts to remain light over our immediate local counties. Ice accumulations of 0.25" or less is likely to occur. Amounts higher than that will be possible as you move further northeast and east into Western Central, Northern, Eastern Bluegrass, Southeastern, Eastern, and Northeastern Kentucky.
The NAM model is probably too strong with the low level jet and thus producing too much precipitation. The GFS is probably too light with its accumulations. This is something that will need to be ironed out today and tonight. Again - I am thinking less than 0.25" total in precipitation. No matter what form it falls in. If that changes then I will update the forecast.
The main concern, with this event, will be travel problems. Remember that it only takes a little bit of freezing rain or freezing drizzle to cause severe travel problems. Our biggest wreck event a couple of years ago was in December with freezing drizzle. Numerous accidents occurred from that event. There was almost no accumulation of ice - just enough to cause the roads to become slick - like a skating rink. This is the primary concern for this upcoming event. Slick roads.
I am not expecting a damaging ice storm in our immediate local counties. A damaging ice event will be possible in areas to our east. For the Metropolis and Paducah area - it appears ice accumulation would stay below the threshold for damage. However, this will be monitored.
I will update as I get new information later today and tonight.
All transportation districts are going to have problems with this next event. Hopefully temperatures will warm enough to change some of the freezing drizzle and freezing rain to all rain. This will need to be monitored.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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