**Transportation Cabinet forecast below my regions forecast.**
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Chance for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0% (possible flurry today as you move closer to Evansville or the far eastern half of our region - light snow possible further east out of our area)
Today - Cloudy. Chilly. A slight chance for sprinkles or light flurries. High temperatures near 32 degrees. Light winds.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Chilly. Low near 26 degrees. Light winds.
Friday: Partly sunny. High temperature near 46 degrees. Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Your local National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.10-30.40" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
-----------------
Transportation Cabinet: Districts 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 may experience light winter precipitation this weekend - listen for updates from your local offices. Some light snow is occurring today - however, the main event will arrive late Friday night into Saturday night - so I will focus my discussion on that event. Especially for districts 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 12. With higher probability of impacts from frozen precipitation across districts 6, 7, 9, 10, and 12.
-----------------
Good morning everyone! Well - it feels like December out there. Morning lows were in the lower to middle 20s across the Paducah forecast area. Nothing extreme - but a reminder that winter is upon us.
A light disturbance is moving through the region this morning. This is setting off a few showers and snow flurries/showers over portions of the Illinois and Ohio Valley regions. This area of light precipitation will spread southeast through the day. Not expecting hardly any precipitation here in our local counties. More to our north and east. As expected.
A stronger clipper type system will move into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley on Friday night and Saturday. This will help spread an area of light rain and snow across the region. The highest probabilities of precipitation will be to our northeast and east. Our local counties can expect a few showers - nothing major or significant.
NWS offices are starting to lower overnight low temperatures for next week. It appears some areas (especially those that receive snow - to our east and northeast - can expect to see a taste of teens. I would not be surprised if our region also sees low temperatures dip into the teens next week.
December is starting off on a cold note and that should continue for the near term. I do not see any major or significant snow events in the near term for southern Illinois or western Kentucky. Areas to our east may experience a dusting to 2 or 3 inches over the Friday night into Sunday time period. I will cover that below for the Transportation Cabinet.
Enjoy your Thursday and Friday! The weekend is knocking (where does the time go?)
Transportation Cabinet Update:
A clipper type system will spread and area of light rain and snow across portions of northern and central Illinois into Indiana and Ohio and eventually into West Virginia and Kentucky on Friday night and Saturday. The precipitation will be enhanced on Saturday and Saturday night as a low deepens over the Carolina's and southeastern United States.
In addition to the Friday night into Saturday night event - additional weak impulses and lake effect snow could cause problems for the snow favored areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. Several inches of snow would be possible during the upcoming 5 day period.
At this time (see yesterday for a full update) the models are shifting a bit further south and west. As expected - this means that the rain/snow line has been shifted a bit further south and west on the models. It also means that the precipitation totals will be increased a little bit over districts 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12.
This is not a large winter storm - this is what I would consider a minor event. Snowfall accumulations of a dusting to 2-3 inches are possible. It is a bit early to make a forecast on actual numbers. Having read through the area forecast discussions this morning from Louisville and Jackson - I am in agreement with their thoughts on the storm.
Here is what the NAM is showing for snowfall totals - again - a light event for most areas. Favored snow belt regions (topography enhanced regions) - could see a bit more than others. Click images for larger views. Again - these snowfall forecast maps are never exactly correct. They give you a general ideas - other model maps may show a bit more than this - while others may show the same or less. Use this for guidance.
I would expect some winter type advisories for late Friday night or Saturday/Saturday night. Depending on how fast the precipitation moves in.
Also - please review Chris Bailey's comments for eastern Kentucky as he does a great job in covering the more "special" challenges that topography creates in the hill regions. See his link at the bottom of my blog post.
The fast northwest flow will continue into next week. As you can see - NWS offices are starting to lower temperature forecasts for early next week. I am forecasting temperatures to fall into the 20s on Sunday morning and into the teens early next week - for overnight lows. Some of this will depend if snow actually does accumulate. Obviously if that happens temperatures will be colder than officially forecast.
Here are some maps from the latest data I have received - again, keep in mind, that snowfall forecasting past 12-24 hours is tricky at best. But - you get the general idea from these maps as to what we are expecting.
Also keep in mind that temperatures will be marginal on Saturday for snow - temperatures could rise enough to change the snow to rain in many counties before temperatures fall late in the day and evening - changing whatever precipitation is left back to snow. I do not expect the rain to be heavy. Whatever precipitation is left on the roadways may cause black ice in some areas on Sunday morning and Monday morning.
Map number 1 - above - shows the probability of light freezing rain during the Friday night through Saturday morning time period. You can see just a very small area in a risk zone.
Map number 2 - above - shows the probability of 1" or more of snowfall during the 24 hour period from 7 am Friday morning until 7 am Saturday morning.
Map number 3 - above - shows the probability of 1" or more of snowfall during the 24 hour period from 7 am Saturday morning until 7 am Sunday morning.
Map number 4 - above - indicates the probability of 2" or more of snowfall during the 24 hour period starting at 7 am Saturday morning until 7 am Sunday morning. Images below are from www.wright-weather.com
Map number 5 - above - indicates what the weather map should look like around 2-4 pm on Saturday afternoon. The purple area is precipitation. The solid yellow line indicates where frozen precipitation may occur (this is not exact and other variables come into play). You get the general idea, though - from that map as to where precipitation will be falling or where precipitation would have fallen over the previous 3-4 hour period.
Map number 6 - above - indicates what the weather map should look like on Saturday evening - around 6 or 7 pm. Precipitation continues over portions of Kentucky.
Map number 7 - above - shows the deeper low forming over the southeast United States. This could enhance snow and precipitation over portions of Kentucky on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. By that time most of the precipitation will be mixed or frozen.
Map number 8 - above - shows the expected low temperatures on Sunday morning.
Map number 9 - above - shows cold air over the region on Tuesday morning (same will be true for Monday and Wednesday morning). Areas with snow will have colder temperatures.
Let's take a look at the Jacons, KY Meteorgram. This shows the model spread forecasts for precipitation amounts and temperatures. You can get a better idea of how the temperatures are forecast to run on Friday night into Saturday night. Again - each line is one models opinion and shows you the forecast spread.
The above map is the snowfall forecast model spread for Jackson, KY
The above map shows the temperature spread forecast for Jackson, Kentucky.
In summary - the main frozen precipitation threat would like be for the districts mentioned above. The event will not be all frozen for most counties. There will be a rain/snow mix on Saturday - starting out as snow late Friday night and Saturday morning - changing to a mix and then back to snow on Saturday evening. At this time it appears that snowfall accumulations would be light - in the dusting to 3 inch range. Favored snow areas because of topography or mountains could receive more snowfall than the above mentioned numbers.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
No comments:
Post a Comment