4 PM Update:
Snow is slowly moving out of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Most areas have picked up between 1/2"-3" of snow. Isolated heavier totals towards Marion and southeast Illinois.
Blowing snow will continue through the evening. Bitterly cold temperatures tonight into the single digits - tomorrow night, as well. Wind chills values will be in the -10 to 5 above range.
A light ice event is possible on Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates.
Updated at 10:30 am to increase amounts in some areas.
Transportation Cabinet forecast totals are at the bottom of this post. No real changes from previous thinking/forecast.
For winter weather radar see this link -Weather Observatory Radars
To watch any snow that falls on our tower cams - click here
For current conditions in Massac County - McCracken County - Other - click here
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
*** Dangerous wind chill values and cold Today into Tuesday morning ***
*** Period of light snow today - blowing snow - strong winds ***
Impact: Those working outdoors should protect their skin from frost bite. Children heading to school on Monday and Tuesday morning should be protected against the extreme cold. Outdoor pets and livestock should be protected against both the cold and low wind chill values on Sunday into Tuesday. Any snow that does fall today will be accompanied by strong winds. This will cause some blowing snow and reduced visibilities.
Those venturing out on area lakes and rivers should use caution between today and Monday. High winds will cause problems with small vessels and boats. Wind gusts over 45 mph will be possible on area lakes.
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For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:
Bitterly cold wind chill values and low temperatures today into Tuesday morning.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:
Period of light snow likely today over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky. Accumulations of a dusting to one inch in parts of southeast Missouri and 1-3 inches in far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Locally higher amounts as you move north and east in the area (towards Evansville and southeast Illinois - eastern/northeastern parts of western Kentucky. Blowing snow likely in areas that do receive snow.
A category one winter storm is forecast to impact our immediate local region (portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky). This is the lowest on the scale of 1 to 5.
You can read more about my scale by clicking here. This scale is based on impact and was made in order to better advise you on the impact of a winter weather event.
This particular storm will have higher winds than most of our winter storm situations. The snowfall criteria will be met over parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Albeit probably towards the minimum side of the scale (1-3" for many areas - higher amounts in a few counties). Impacts will be made more profound because of blowing snow and bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values.
Category 1 Snowstorm
Accumulation: Snowfall accumulations of 1-4" are forecast (this storm will produce a dusting to 1" with locally higher amounts). A category one snowstorm is a fairly common event.
Life Threat Level: Low threat to life if residents use care and caution when venturing out. Remember that any roadway that is slick can be dangerous. Nearly 1000 people were killed during the last two winters from accidents on slick roadways in the United States. Also remember that wind chill values will be very low today through Monday. Adding to the potential for frost bite.
Travel Impact: Roads may become slick. Use caution. Blowing snow - in areas that receive snow - could cause reduced visibilities at times.
Economic Impact: Little to low economic impact is expected.
Advice to Emergency Officials: Expect normal snow related operations. Listen for updates from the NWS and loca.
Again - dangerous wind chill levels will make conditions outside particularly uncomfortable and potentially dangerous for young people and the elderly.
Forecast:
Today - Cold and windy. A period of light to moderate snow. Blowing snow possible with periods of reduced visibility. Winter weather advisory is in effect. Wind advisory is in effect. High temperatures in the 20s. Wind chill values in the single digits to below zero at times. Winds becoming west/northwest at 15-25 mph. Gusts to 35-45 mph.
A dusting to 1" in southeast Missouri and 2-4 inches of snow in southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Less as you go into southeast Missouri and more as you go north and east. Snow accumulations of 2-4" are more likely as you move east/northeast in our region (closer to Evansville and Madisonville/Owensboro). Strong winds may cause blowing snow in areas that do receive accumulation. This may reduce visibilities.
Sunday night - Clearing - a few flurries early. Bitterly cold. Windy early in the evening. Low temperatures 8-12 degrees. Wind chill values well below zero. Northwest wind at 10-20 mph. Gusts over 30 mph.
Monday - Partly sunny. Very cold. High temperatures near 18-20 degrees. Wind chills in the single digits to below zero at times. North/northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Higher gusts in open areas and on area lakes.
Monday night - Bitterly cold. Low temperature in the single digits. Northwest wind at 10 mph.
Tuesday - Partly cloudy. High near 27 degrees. Light winds.
Tuesday night - Cloudy. A slight chance for freezing drizzle late. Low confidence in this forecast period. Some moisture may try to move back into the region on Tuesday night and again Wednesday/Wednesday night. Will monitor this closely. Low temperatures in the lower 20s.
Your up to the minute latest National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.70-30.10" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Shorter post today than yesterday - the forecast maps (see yesterdays post) have not changed all that much.
As you wake up this morning you will notice the stronger winds and colder temperatures. Also snow is falling over portions of the region. This snow will continue for several hours. Accumulations of 2-4 inches. Higher totals will likely fall further east/northeast in Kentucky. See that information below.
I am watching another storm system heading into our region on Tuesday night into Thursday. If the system moves in too fast then we may have freezing drizzle to deal with. I will update more on that subject later tonight and on Monday.
The big story will be the cold and wind today into Monday. Would not be surprised to see some wind chill values in the -10 to -15 range from time to time. Even lower values over portions of central and eastern Kentucky - northern Kentucky. Regardless of whether the wind chills are -5 or -15 the outcome will be the same. So - protect the children on Monday morning and Tuesday morning from the bitterly cold air (I would imagine some schools will not be open because of weather conditions).
Transportation Cabinet Districts:
Some snow and blowing snow will certainly be a problem over the next 48-72 hour period - especially over the central, eastern and northern half of Kentucky. Western Kentucky will also experience light snow and blowing snow.
Keep in mind that you shouldn't focus too much on the totals - whether 1" or 2" of snow falls - the high winds are going to cause problems with reduced visibility and blowing snow. The outcome will be the same.
Least impact will be on districts 1, 2, and 3. This is where the least amount of snow is expected. However, any snow that does fall would blow around quite a bit. So - this could be an issue even if there is just a dusting or an inch or two of snow. Something to keep in mind.
Most impact will be on districts 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.
Heavier snow possible over districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Especially 11 and 12.
Districts 1, 2, and 3: I am expecting 1-3" with locally higher amounts.
District 4: 1"- 3" of snow.
Districts 5, 6, and 7 - parts of district 9: 2-4" of snow. (topography favored snow areas will receive more - as they always do)
Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12: Accumulations of 4-10" will be possible in these counties. Topographical favored areas will receive the most snow. The highest amounts mentioned will be in the mountains and in districts 10, 11, and 12. Blowing and drifting snow will be a bigger problem in these areas.
Emergency Management Districts:
Light accumulations (less than 4") possible over Western, Western Central and Western Bluegrass.
Light to moderate accumulations (2-4") are possible over Northern, South-central, Eastern Bluegrass, Northeastern. Isolated higher totals in Northeastern district will be possible.
Heavy accumulations of 3-6+ are likely over Southeastern, and Eastern Kentucky. Some totals in topographical favored area could receive over 8" of snow.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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