2 PM - Warm temperatures!
Check out the map this afternoon. WARM is the word of the day!
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Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Fire risk/danger will be quite high today. Please don't burn brush or leaves.
Today - Mostly sunny (a few clouds here and there) and warm. High near 74 degrees.
Tonight - Mostly clear. Cool. Low near 45 degrees.
Tomorrow - Partly Sunny - few more clouds. Mild. High temperature around 74 degrees.
Your seven day forecast from the NWS can be viewed here - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.95-30.12" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
A changeable pattern is unfolding for the next few weeks. I have a feeling there will be some headaches in the forecast department. Models have an extremely difficult time with the changing of the seasons and major pattern changes. So - don't be surprised if we need to tweak forecasts in the coming days.
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The warm air continues to stream in from the west/southwest. You can see this on the map - check out the tightening gradient over the central U.S. This is ahead of the next storm system. The low is centered back in the Rockies. You can see the counterclockwise rotation around the low.
The next chance for rain will arrive on Friday night and Saturday. Right now it appears the risk for strong or severe storms is very low. It doesn't look like moisture return or instability will be great enough to produce significant severe weather. Earlier this week I was uncertain concerning this topic. However, it is becoming more and more clear that the threat is low. As always, I will monitor for any changes.
The official 5 day forecast precipitation (issued by the HPC) clearly shows the next storm system approaching - heavier precip to our west. I believe our area will be in the lighter amounts - right now my forecast is for 0.40" or less. Let's just hope we receive that much rainfall. Every little bit helps!
Enjoy the warm weather - it won't last. Colder weather is expected next week and the week after (see previous posts).
Remember when I told you that the GFS often times overplays its hands when it comes to just how cold it will be in the long range? I didn't even post the maps the other day because they were showing EXTREME cold - I knew that wasn't going to verify. Showing zero degree weather here in our region and the Ohio Valley. Now - I believe the GFS has the right idea about several cold shots coming down in the next 2 weeks. What I didn't agree with was just how cold it was going to be. I usually take 10-20 degrees off of what the GFS is actually forecasting in the long range. All said and done - definitely colder weather is heading our way - below normal temperatures in the coming weeks.
Here are some maps from the GFS ensembles (remember ensembles are simply computer forecast models that are tweaked a little bit differently each time they are run - they are supposed to give us a better idea of what will actually happen).
A roller-coaster pattern? Yes. But, nothing unusual for late fall. Cold waves are common as we move towards December - as you know!
You can see from the below maps that colder/below normal temperatures are forecast in the coming weeks.
November 14th map - above (blue is below normal temperatures)
November 22nd map - above (blue is below normal temps)
November 24th - still more cold air arriving or over our region.
We will see how well these maps verify. A move towards colder weather is coming - enjoy this nice weather while it lasts.
Let's take a quick look at the month to date averages. The first map will be the temperature departure map. You can see that we are averaging near normal to below normal. The second map will be the departure map for precipitation (no surprise here) - it is showing that the dry weather continues. Click images for large screen view.
The nation as a whole has been divided in the temperature departure maps. The western half of the country has been above normal and the eastern half of the county has been below normal. This pattern will likely continue into December. Then you will see a dramatic switch in January and February. The eastern half will likely be above normal in the temperature department and the western half will be below normal in the temperature department.
Here is the national temperature departure map - month to date.
Are you looking for relief from the drought? Most of us are. This next map was issued by NOAA - it does not provide us much hope for significant relief. We have several systems to watch in the coming two week period. Let's hope we receive some much needed moisture.
Drought forecast:
The official NOAA Winter Weather Forecast has been out for a few weeks now. There are a ton of mixed signals on this coming winter. I was quite confident in my fall forecast - which has panned out nicely. But, I can tell you that the signals for winter are not nearly as clear. I continue to lean for a colder second half of November and I am leaning towards a cold December. After that time I believe we will have a roller-coaster pattern. Lot of storm activity.
I continue to be quite bullish on ice storms for this coming winter. You can read my original thoughts on the ice storm threat area in the fall forecast that was issued in early September (see top of page with the link on the right). I believe I outline the states with significant threats. This is something we will need to pay close attention to in the coming weeks and months.
Here is the official NOAA outlook. Click here.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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