November 10, 2010:

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Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:  0%

Fire risk/danger will be quite high today.  Please don't burn brush or leaves.  A large fire broke out yesterday in southern Illinois.

Today - Some clouds today - mixed with sun.  High near 75 degrees.  South winds 5-10 mph.
Tonight - A few clouds tonight.  Cool.  Low near 45 degrees.  South winds 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow - Partly Sunny - few more clouds.  Mild.  High temperature around 75 degrees.  Southeast winds 5-10 mph.

Your seven day forecast from the NWS can be viewed here - click here.

Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.05-30.20" range.  Last 24 hours of data - click here. 

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Today's weather map for our region - made by our friends over at the NWS Office in Paducah, KY

Folks, it just does not get any better than this.  We have been in the 70s for most of the week - those temps will continue today and tomorrow/Friday.  Unbelievably beautiful weather.  Yes, we need rain.  There is rain in the forecast for Saturday and then again next week (especially east/southeast of our immediate local area).

Rainfall totals this weekend will not be heavy.  I am thinking 0.10"-0.30" for our area.  That is not very much rain.  I would not be surprised if some counties were missed.  We will see how the line of showers develops - but for now - that is my thinking on the subject.

Severe weather is not expected with the Saturday system.

Another storm system will approach our region from the south on Sunday and Monday.  This is likely to skirt our region - the most substantial rains from this system will be to our south and east.  Unfortunately.  However, some rain should impact some of our counties - especially in west Tennessee and areas near Kentucky Lake - eastward.  A few showers for the rest of the area.  I will tweak that forecast as we move into the weekend.  If we are lucky then the rain will be further north than forecast.

Colder to much colder air is still in the cards for next week and the week after.  A roller-coaster pattern.  From warmth to cold.  It will not be cold every single day - there will be days where temperatures will be warmer than average - as storm systems move through this flow.  Then behind the systems - colder air will move into the region.

You will start to feel the cooler air on Saturday night and Sunday - then Monday through Wednesday will be cooler - chilly nights.  Then late next week even colder air is forecast to move into our area.  Dust off the heavier coats.  You may need them before Thanksgiving arrives.  :)

I am watching a winter storm threat for portions of the central and northern United States for late next week and weekend.  Way too early to make predictions.  Just a system I am keeping an eye on.  This could mean showers and thunderstorms for our region - depending on the storm track.

As many of you know - long range predictions are difficult at best.  But, I thought since the weather has been so boring :) - that you might want a teaser of what the long range data is forecasting/indicating.  Sort of like going to the movies just to see the movie trailers. 

There are strong signals for a copious amount of cold air as we move towards next week and the week after.  This is an idea that we have been discussing in here since September.  The middle/end of November would bring dramatic changes.  Now that we are starting to actually see these ideas on the weather map - I am more confident in the forecast.

I am certain that many other local meteorologists and the NWS Office in Paducah, KY is keeping an eye on the pattern changes, as well.  Winter weather preparedness weeks are right around the corner.  A reminder that it is time for us to start thinking about a variety of weather conditions - other than just drought and 70 degree weather! 

Here is a map that I grabbed for you this morning - this is the GFS ensemble map for next Sunday - 21st of November (that is when I am having my holiday open house at the Weather Observatory and my home - noon to 5 pm).  Remember that the ensembles maps are simply one model run that are tweaked slightly different each time they are run by the computers.  In theory it is supposed to give us a better idea of all of the possibilities.  You can see on these maps that a storm system is situated in the middle of the United States.

I am still leaning towards November ending up below normal in the temperature department (when all the averages are in) - I am also thinking December will be colder than normal.  The pattern is in transition.

Be safe and enjoy the warmth!

- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php