Updated for shower chances...
Bottom line it for me Beau...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Fire danger remains high.
Mostly cloudy today - high temperatures in the 60s. Some sprinkles and showers as you go into west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Clouds tonight - cool. Lows in the 40s. A few clouds tomorrow - sprinkles possible in the morning - cool. High temperatures around 65 degrees.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.20-30.25" range. It fell yesterday and then rose overnight. Last 24 hours - click here.
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Your seven day forecast can be viewed here.
You can view local and regional radar by clicking here.
I am leaning towards normal to below normal temperatures for November and December. This is in contrast to the official NOAA forecast for November - where odds favor above normal temperatures in November. However, the pattern seems to be for more troughs in the east. We will see how it goes. We don't always have to agree on forecasts.
I am also still forecasting a more active pattern as we move towards the middle/end of November.
Normal high temperature for this time of the year is 63 degrees.
Normal low temperature for this time of the year is 40 degrees.
Your Daily Weather Map:
Another shot of cool/cold air will arrive late this week and into the weekend. Overnight lows will once again dip into the 20s.
Our next significant chance of precipitation probably won't arrive until after November 10th. I am still forecasting the pattern to become more active as we move towards the middle/end of November. I jumped the gun a bit a week or week and a half ago. I thought we were moving more quickly into an active pattern - but that did not happen.
Time for forecast verification. Let's take a look at how October turned out. My forecast was for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. That is what the region experienced. So, we did okay on the October part of the fall forecast (remember the forecast runs from September through November).
Here are the numbers from the National Weather Service
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Average temperature for the month of October = 58.5 degrees which was +0.3 degrees above normal
Precipitation for the month of October = 0.51" which was well below normal (number is missing)
Carbondale, Illinois
Average temperature for the month of October = 58.6 degrees which was +2.3 degrees above normal
Precipitation for the month of October = 0.77" which was -2.16" well below normal
Paducah, Kentucky
Average temperature for the month of October = 60 degrees which was +2.0 degrees above normal
Precipitation for the month of October = 0.77" which was -2.68" well below normal
Evansville, Indiana
Average temperature for the month of September = 60.0 degrees which was +2.7 degrees above normal
Precipitation for the month of September = 1.06" which was -1.72" below normal
Owensboro, Kentucky
Average temperature for the month of October = 60.9 degrees which was +1.4 degrees above normal
Precipitation for the month of October = 0.97" = which was -2.04" below normal
Most days were dry, as you know. The biggest storm system occurred on October 26th. That was the severe weather outbreak that raked the Ohio Valley. Some locations only recorded rain on that day. Quite amazing and terribly dry. Drought conditions continue across our region.
Let's take a look at the maps for October - they are quite impressive. Almost the entire nation was above normal in the temperature department.
The above map shows the departures in the precipitation department. Large areas were dry.
Let's zoom in on our region. As you can see (above) - temperatures were quite a bit above normal for the month of October.
And the above map - zoomed in on the Ohio Valley - shows the precipitation departures. Quite impressive. The large red area was extremely dry.
Let's take a look at the official 30 day outlook for the month of November. This forecast is from the National Weather Service. I am actually leaning a bit towards normal to even perhaps a tad below normal for temperatures. But - it will be close.
And now the 30 day precipitation outlook.
Meanwhile, Tomas is bad news for some of the Caribbean islands. Click here.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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