NOTE: The seven day forecast is down on my web-site. Hope to have it fixed by tomorrow!
But, I can give it to you here - just as well!
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Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Today - Rain spreading northward through the morning. A rumble of thunder possible. Chilly. Locally moderate to heavier downpours possible today - especially as you go further east and south in our region. Higher rainfall totals over Tennessee and Kentucky. Lesser rainfall totals as you move further west/northwest. Most of western Kentucky and far southern Illinois/southwest Indiana/far southeast Missouri should receive 0.40-0.70" of rain. High near 45 degrees/ Northwest winds 10-15 mph with higher gusts.
Tonight - Decreasing cloudiness. Cool. Low near 34 degrees. West winds 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow - Clouds will once again increase. High temperature near 57 degrees. South wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday - Partly sunny. High temperature near 60 degrees. Winds gusty from the south/southwest at 15 mph.
Wednesday night - Cloudy with a 40% chance of a shower. Majority of precipitation should be over southern Illinois, southern Indiana, northern parts of southeast Missouri, and northwest Kentucky. Less as you move south in our area. Low near 40 degrees.
Thursday - Partly cloudy. Cooler. High temperature near 49 degrees. Winds gusty - Northwest at 10-15 mph.
Dry from Friday into Saturday.
Your local seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here.
Local and regional interactive radars can be viewed by clicking here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.50-29.75" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Good morning!
Rain is spreading across our region in response to an area of low pressure moving up from the Gulf of Mexico. I have been promising you a more active pattern for the middle/end of November. It appears that is what is happening. Thankfully. This will be our second rainfall in less than a week. MUCH needed rainfall as we are still in severe and extreme drought conditions. See previous posts for drought information/maps.
Here is the morning weather map:
Here is a radar grab by around 6 am.
As you can see - plenty of rainfall is expected today. We are actually fortunate to receive this rainfall. There was a lot of debate as to whether it would spread far enough north to impact our region. If you remember the other day I mentioned that we needed the storm to be a bit better organized and move a bit further north in order to help our region with much needed rainfall.
This fairly well organized system will keep rain in the forecast for today - rain will come to an end this evening and tonight. A second system will move southeast into our region from Missouri and Iowa on Wednesday afternoon and evening. This second system will spread some light precipitation - rain - over portions of southern Illinois and Indiana. The rain will clip portions of Missouri and Kentucky.
Rainfall totals today will be lighter as you go further northwest in our region. Expect totals in the Marion, Illinois to Mayfield, Kentucky area to be around 0.40-0.70" - rainfall totals of 1/2-1" can be expected as you go a bit further east in Kentucky and Tennessee. You can see that I increased expected totals a little bit over our local counties. We will see how it goes.
Here is the rainfall projection map for today - this first map is from the NAM model. You can see a stripe of heavier rain over our local counties. The exact placement of that heavier band could be one or two counties off. But, you get the general idea on how this should unfold. The second image is from the NWS/HPC. They issue a rainfall forecast, as well.
A second storm system (weaker) will approach from the northwest tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will spread some light precipitation back into our region. The rainfall totals from that system area expected to be less than 0.30". Here is the official rainfall map for that event. Broad brushed.
Here is another map from the NAM - model data from www.wright-weather.com - this is the Thursday morning system (Wednesday night).
A dry weekend is on tap for the area. Clouds should increase on Sunday in response to the next storm system approaching. I believe most of the showers on Sunday will stay to our west. I will tweak the forecast if need be. Rain chances return next Monday/Tuesday and then again around Thanksgiving.
I am still expecting colder weather later next week - sort of a roller coaster pattern. Cool weather then warm weather and then a return to colder weather. This could be the story of the winter - roller coaster patterns.
I still don't see anything "extreme" or unusual about the pattern developing. Outside of the drought, of course. Even the cold air shots next week appear fairly normal in nature. I don't see any severe weather outbreaks in the near term. We will be monitoring next weeks storm (around Thanksgiving).
Also, don't forget that this is winter weather preparedness week. If you live in our region then you are very much aware of the potential of severe winter weather. Always be prepared! The NWS Office out of Paducah, Kentucky encourages everyone to think about putting together a severe weather kit. Don't forget your NOAA Weather Radio! Always important to have in the event of an emergency. Click here for more information - then click on your local office.
I might update the forecast blog this afternoon.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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