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Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today: 0%
Severe or extreme weather risk for tonight: 0%
Severe or extreme weather risk for Monday: 0%
Chance for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Today - BEAUTIFUL weather, once again! Sunny sky (few high clouds late in the day moving in from the southwest). High temperature near 54 degrees. Light winds.
Sunday night: Becoming cloudy. Milder. Low temperature near 40 degrees. Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Monday: Shower chances will increase through the day - spreading from the south/southwest towards the northeast. A chance for a rumble of thunder. Best rain chances will be in the afternoon. Warmer. Windier. High temperature near 58 degrees. South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Monday Night: Rain - chance for thunder. Rain most widespread during the first half of the night. Low temperatures around 40 degrees. South winds at 10-15 mph - becoming westerly late.
Rainfall totals from Monday into Tuesday morning will generally be in the 0.75-1.50" range. Some locally higher amounts.
Your local National Weather Service seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here.
Local and regional interactive radars can be viewed by clicking here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.10-30.30" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Well, good morning everybody. I hope you have had a wonderful holiday weekend! My family is getting together today to celebrate Thanksgiving. Everyone is coming over to my place - should be a lot of fun and a lot of food! Thankfully the weather is going to be nice today. So - I can have a break from watching the radar.
Our next storm chances are knocking at our door. An area of low pressure will push northward and northeastward over the next 24 hours and will spread rain and thunderstorms up and down the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This will make our fifth or sixth rainfall events over the last couple of weeks! November has turned active on us. I believe we can all be thankful for the much needed rainfall.
Expect widespread rainfall amounts in the 0.75-1.50" range. I would not be surprised to see some heavier amounts.
Severe weather is not expected. The Storm Prediction Center says we may see a few rumbles of thunder. Any severe weather risk should remain confined to Louisiana.
November has ended up being fairly quiet on the severe weather front. Nothing too extreme. A few small events. The extreme cold - arctic air has avoided us, as well. The last few days have not even been as cold as earlier cold spells. Again, nothing extreme.
A few maps for your weather eyes - this morning :)
These first two maps are the official forecasted rainfall totals for the next few days. The first map is the 5 day expected totals and the second map is for Monday/Tuesday. As you can see - most of our rain is going to fall tomorrow and Tuesday (basically nothing after that - for a few days). As always, you can click for a larger view.
Then let's break down what the NAM model is showing - this is from www.wright-weather.com My favorite location for viewing the latest computer guidance.
As you can see on the above map - radar is expected to show some showers starting to move into our region by late Monday morning and early afternoon. The coverage will increase through the day and evening hours. A few locally heavy showers are likely. Rain will be quite widespread by evening.
Then by late afternoon you can see that showers and a few thunderstorms will be fairly widespread over our region. Again, no severe weather is forecast.
The above map is from Monday evening - widespread showers and storms over our region. Mostly rain - a few thunderstorms.
The above image is the winter precip radar - these type of maps are never perfect. But they do provide us with a reasonable forecast map to gather an idea as to what to expect. You can see that no winter precipitation is expected in our region on Monday night. This image is for around 8-11 pm Monday evening.
Then the above map - Tuesday morning (around the 1-4 am time period). This shows showers and thunderstorms moving out of our region. There will likely still be a few showers left over - sprinkles/light rain. But the bulk of the precipitation will have moved east of western Kentucky.
Around 7 am on Tuesday morning - areas to our east can expect rain to continue. Central and eastern Kentucky will have a wet Tuesday.
Tuesday - late morning - the above map shows precipitation continuing to our east. We may still have a little bit of moisture left over in our region (southern Illinois and western Kentucky). This could provide an opportunity for a few sprinkles or even a flurry here and there. Nothing major or significant.
The best chance for snow and snow showers with this system will be across eastern Kentucky later on Tuesday night and Wednesday - some left over moisture should help produce some change over to snow on the backside of the storm. Those "snow" favored areas should be in line for at least some snow showers. The climate in central and eastern Kentucky is nothing like the climate here in western Kentucky. I like to refer to Chris Bailey on eastern areas.
The next storm system I am watching will occur around December 5-7th. We have been talking about that particular storm for about 2 weeks now. There are still a lot of questions that remain on the table as to the impact for our region - if any. It is just too far out to make a call. But, something I am watching.
If you remember - I use ensembles to look at storms down the road. An ensemble is the same computer model but tweaked a little bit differently each time they run it. This is supposed to give us a better of idea on how a forecast might unfold - how a pattern might unfold. You have to be careful how you use ensembles - there is more to it than just what the map shows. Models are simply guidance to help us figure out the forecast - they often times are not correct and need to be tweaked.
Anyway, here is what December 6th is showing - some rain? Some snow? Some ice? Nothing at all. :) Ahhh - the fun of forecasting. Stay tuned. We will keep an eye on this event. There is the potential for a significant winter precipitation event over the central and eastern United States during the December 5-7th time period (but again - this is was too far out to know how the storm will unfold - if there is a storm at all) - we may need to adjust the dates a bit (could be a day or two later). Still plenty of time to watch the storm.
Here is what the GFS is showing for that same time period - this is a major winter storm for the Ohio Valley and perhaps even further south. Extreme caution should be used with the GFS - it has not done well with the cold air this fall season. For weeks it has been showing extreme solutions - with almost no verification. I have little faith in the temperature output from the GFS past day four and five. But, again - this is something we will just have to monitor. Models do not do well with seasonal transitions or past day four or five.
Something for the Transportation Cabinet and others to be watching.
Have a WONDERFUL and sunny Sunday!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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