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Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Less than 2%
Chance for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A flurry possible on Tuesday over west Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Today - Cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms developing by late morning and becoming widespread this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours possible. Breezy. High temperatures near 56 degrees. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph on lakes and open areas.
Tonight: Cloudy. Rain in the evening. A rumble of thunder. Locally heavy rain possible in some counties. Breezy. Low temperature near 42 degrees. South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 20 mph on lakes and open areas.
Tuesday: Rain ending early in the morning. A chance for a sprinkle or snow flurry during the afternoon and evening. Cooler with temperatures falling during the late morning and afternoon hours. High temperature near 45 degrees. West winds at 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night: A few clouds. Cooler. Low temperatures near 28 degrees.
Your local National Weather Service seven day forecast can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radar - including precipitation type radar - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.80-30.10" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Good morning everyone. We have a weather event underway as an area of low pressure pulls out of the central United States. This area of low pressure will help pull moisture northward today and produce widespread showers and thunderstorms over our region.
You can view all of the watches and warnings across the United States - click here.
Check out my regional radar (see link above) - it is already showing rain moving into the area. This will become more widespread through the day.
Severe weather is not expected - although a few strong to isolated severe storms could occur in Tennessee and areas to the south. At this time it does not appear that instability will be great enough for severe weather in Kentucky. As always listen to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates. The wind fields are very strong and it wouldn't take much to bring down a few gusty winds.
Also strong and gusty gradient winds are likely over our region (and areas to our east) through tonight. Gradient winds are winds caused by low pressure and high pressure - winds tighten up. Expect 30 mph gusts over our local region especially on lakes and open areas. I would not be surprised to see some 30-40 mph gusts across central and eastern Kentucky over the next 24-36 hour period.
Here is the latest NWS/HPC forecast rainfall totals for this next event (most of this will fall in the next 24 hours for our local counties and within the next 48 hours for the rest of Kentucky)
I am still expecting a widespread rainfall event in the 0.75" to 1.5" range. Some forecasts are calling for a bit more than that. Which might be possible - but as a general rule the above totals should be about right. Locally heavy amounts of 1.50-2.25" are certainly possible in areas that receive training thunderstorms (thunderstorms training over the same area for an extended period of time).
This is what the NAM (model) shows this evening for our region - this is supposed to be what radar would look like around 7-9 pm. These type of maps are never perfect - but you get the idea. This map is from my favorite source for maps - www.wright-weather.com - click image for a larger view.
Then let's take a look at tomorrow morning - between 4 am and 7 am - rain is moving to our east. I would not be surprised if there were still some showers a bit further west of what this model is predicting. But, again - you get the general idea.
Parts of Kentucky have been placed in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. This basically means that some heavy rainfall is expected and this could cause some problems with small stream and urban flooding. A lot of leaves are clogging drains, as well. This could cause some ponding of water.
The first map is for today and tonight and the second map is for tomorrow. Click all maps on this page for a larger view.
Here is the official severe weather outlook today - from the Storm Prediction Center. Note areas to our south are expecting some isolated severe storms. Emergency management officials in Kentucky should monitor for any updates - again, I don't expect any widespread severe weather. An isolated strong wind gust would be possible with any stronger storms.
Let's also take a look at the probability maps for high winds and tornadoes - you can see that some severe weather is likely to our south and southeast. It will knock on Kentucky's door - so we will monitor.
Colder air will filter into our region on Tuesday. This colder air will mix with some wrap around moisture from the storm system and produce some sprinkles or even a flurry. Nothing significant is expected over our local counties.
Areas further north and east in Kentucky will need to monitor the timing of the change over. I would not be surprised to see some grassy surface accumulations in some areas. For those interested in weather further east in Kentucky then please see Chris Bailey's link at the bottom of the page.
The Transportation Cabinet should monitor this subject - especially over far northern Kentucky and far eastern Kentucky (a second ripple of low pressure will move up the boundary on Tuesday night and Wednesday). There are still some questions on how much precipitation will spread into the eastern portions of Kentucky from that system.
For the rest of the week...
A weak clipper type system will approach our local counties on Wednesday night and Thursday. At this time I am not overly optimistic that it will produce much of anything in the way of precipitation. But - will monitor. Areas to our north and east could experience a little bit of snow with that system - closer to Louisville and Cincinnati. Still a bit uncertain but worth watching.
Another system will approach our region over the weekend (see above) and again around December 7th. There is no general consensus on the track of the storm for the 6th-8th. Models have been hinting at a winter storm in the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. I posted about that subject yesterday - please see that discussion. However, I would not even dare take a guess this far out (and that is all it would be in this type of fast flow pattern).
So - we will just leave at a potential event. I will revisit this topic in the coming days.
I will give you a 90 day review tomorrow - we will look back at my fall forecast and how the 90 day period ended up.
Please have a safe week - enjoy the rain (we need all we can get).
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Meteorological Adviser for the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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