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Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Fire risk/danger will be quite high today. Please don't burn brush or leaves.
Today -Mostly sunny (a few clouds here and there) and warm. High near 70-73.
Tonight - Mostly clear. Cool. Low near 40-42
Tuesday -Sunny. Mild. High in the lower 70s.
Your seven day forecast from the NWS can be viewed here - click here.
Barometer reading this morning is in the 30.15-30.25" range. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
I am looking for November to bring below normal temperatures (when all is said and done - averages) - December may very well be cold, as well. My overall thinking is that La Nina conditions will help move us more towards above normal temperatures in January and February. Lot of question marks on how the winter unfolds - I am still thinking a roller-coaster pattern with plenty of storm activity.
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Good morning everyone! What a beautiful weekend. I hope you enjoyed it. Today and tomorrow will be warm. Fire weather will be high - once again. That means that fire departments are asking you not to burn brush or debris. I made a long post on Friday - check it out for some interesting maps.
Our morning weather map:
Our weekly and daily weather map for our region - made by the Paducah, KY NWS:
Our next significant chance of rain will arrive on Friday night and Saturday. An area of low pressure will develop to our southwest and will move northeast through Missouri and Illinois. This will drag a cold front through our region on Saturday. Along and ahead of the cold front will be an area of showers and thunderstorms. There could be some strong storms - although moisture and instability appear to be limited. We will continue to monitor. So, at this time I am not expecting widespread severe weather. Rainfall totals of 0.10"-0.50" will be possible with the front.
A more active pattern is possible next week. Several rounds of precipitation will be possible. Some severe weather will be possible in the Tennessee Valley. Still some time to watch these systems unfold.
I am still forecasting November to end up with below normal temperatures overall.
So, will we have snow flakes before Thanksgiving? I would not rule it out! There are definite signals of at least one or two significant cold outbreaks in the coming weeks. We will just have to monitor trends. If we could get a storm system mixed in with the cold weather then perhaps we would have to think about including snow flurries or flakes in the forecast. There have already been a few flakes in our region over the past week.
The official 8-14 day forecast from the National Weather Service is for below normal temperatures from the 15th through the 21st.
Here is the official 8-14 day temperature outlook - remember this is a probability map. The blue area indicates where odds favor below normal temperatures.
The official 8-14 day precipitation forecast - from NOAA. This is showing below normal precipitation. However, there are some signals that at least one or two storm systems may impact our local region. So - this map may need to be updated in the days to come. Still some time to tweak the precipitation outlook. For the near-term our drought will continue. Unfortunately.
The GFS ensemble data is indicating much below normal temperatures around the 16th-18th. Here is the map.
The GFS (The single map above) has a cold bias. This model has a VERY cold temperature bias once you get past day 9 or 10. So, I don't put a lot of stock in the actual temperatures it is forecast. I do however see a lot of signals for a much colder period of weather during the third and fourth week of November. So, it probably has the right idea. Just a matter of how cold will it be. PLENTY of time to keep an eye on all of this.
In summary - a nice week on tap. Fire danger will be elevated to high. Temperatures will be quite mild. Next chance of rain will arrive on Friday night and Saturday. Several systems may impact the region next week and the following week - colder temperatures in the extended.
Enjoy your weather!
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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