NOTE: The seven day forecast is down on my web-site. Hope to have it fixed by tomorrow! If you go here - http://weatherobservatory.com/hw3/ and just enter your zip code - then it should work. The 62960 zip code is the only one not working. Again, hopefully this will be fixed later this morning.
But, I can give it to you here - just as well!
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You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
Severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%
Please don't burn brush or leaves. Burn bans are still in effect for numerous counties.
Today - Increasing clouds. High near 53 degrees. Southeast winds 5-10 mph.
Tonight - Cloudy. Showers developing late - most widespread south and east of our counties. Low temperature near 37 degrees. Northeast winds at 5 mph.
Tuesday - Cloudy. Showers likely over our area - a rumble or two of thunder will be possible especially to our east/southeast. High temperature near 52 degrees. South/southeast winds at 5 mph. Most widespread rain will be over our eastern counties.
Tuesday night - Showers possible early in the evening - especially over the south and eastern counties. Low temperature of 35 degrees. Rainfall totals of 0.20-0.40" (Marion, IL/Metropolis/Paducah, KY) when all is said and done. Areas to our east and southeast could receive heavier rainfall (further into Kentucky and Tennessee).
Wednesday - Partly sunny. High temperature near 60 degrees. Winds gusty from the south/southwest at 15 mph.
Wednesday night - Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower - more towards the Mt Vernon area. Low near 35 degrees.
Thursday - Mostly Sunny. Cooler. High temperature near 48 degrees.
Thursday night - clear and cool. Low temperature around 30 degrees.
Friday - Mostly sunny. Cool. High near 53 degrees.
Next best chance of rain will be next Monday-Wednesday. Cooler next week, as well.
Your local and regional radar - click here
Barometer reading this morning is in the 29.90-30.05" range - falling to below 29.90 this evening. Last 24 hours of data - click here.
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Good morning!
Your morning weather map
Your 5 day official rainfall forecast from NOAA - you can see quite a bit of precipitation to our south and east.
You will probably want to check radar today and tomorrow - I have your local views and regional views here.
Check out all the precipitation to our south this morning. If it were a bit colder then we would be talking about a winter storm moving into the Tennessee Valley instead of rain.
Winter weather preparedness week has arrived. The National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, Kentucky encourages you to prepare for the upcoming winter. For a list of ways to prepare - click here. And more information can be found here.
Hopefully everyone has a NOAA Weather Radio! It could be a stormy winter - that includes the risk for severe thunderstorms (La Nina pattern). In addition to severe weather watches and warnings you can recieve all of your winter weather bulletins on NOAA Weather Radio! I use them here at my place and encourage you to do so, as well!
I don't see anything unusual in the weather pattern that is developing. No huge push of bitterly cold air - no big winter storms - no severe weather outbreaks for our region. Just a normal late fall pattern.
We were averaging below normal in the temperature department - for November. However, the recent warm weather has pushed us over 1 degree above normal when it comes to the averages. I have been saying we should end November below normal. That is definitely in question. We will see how the last part of the month goes.
I also promised you that the last two weeks of the month would bring more active weather. So far we have had one precip event (two days ago) - now another one looks likely on Tuesday - then perhaps a small chance on Wednesday - then again next Monday/Tuesday.
Let's take a quick look at the month to date maps for both temperature and precipitation
First for temperatures - you can see we are now heading above normal for the month to date.
And now let's take a look at precipitation - we are well below normal (once again). The drought continues. Even though we did pick up a little rain - it wasn't much.
A storm system will push out of the southlands tonight and on Tuesday. This will spread moderate to heavy rain into the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and portions of Kentucky - mostly east of here.
However, an area of rain should develop over our region late tonight and on Tuesday. This area of rain is expected to produce rainfall totals of 0.20-0.40" over our immediate local counties. Rainfall totals of 0.40-1.00" will be possible as you go further east in Kentucky and Tennessee.
The heaviest rain will likely fall just to our east and southeast (speaking relative to the Marion, IL to Mayfield, KY area). This is likely to be a widespread rain event for portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Areas that are desperate for rain. So, this is great news.
For those of you further east into Kentucky - Chris Bailey has a nice discussion up on his site. Click here.
There are differing opinions on this storm track. I will tweak the forecast on here if I see something that changes. We discussed this yesterday. A storm track further north and west would provide better chances for precipitation in our local counties. That appears to be the path the storm is heading - a bit further west. This will be good news for our area - since we need rain.
The area of rain is already showing up on radar to our south - this area of rain should expand throughout the day and tonight as it pushes east/northeast. As the low actually forms and becomes better organized then the area of rain will spread further west and north, as well. Providing us with rain.
A slight deviation in the storm track could cause rainfall totals to change. I will update today's blog accordingly. If need be.
No severe weather is forecast.
The temperature pattern for the next 8-10 days will be a roller-coaster of sorts. Some mild days intermingles with below normal days. Colder air is expected next week. Not sure I buy into the extreme values on the models. The southeast ridge doesn't seem to want to go away. But - none-the-less colder weather should greet us for Thanksgiving.
A storm system will bring a good chance for rain to our area around next Monday or Tuesday. That is still a long way off - so plenty of time to tweak the forecast.
There are also some signals for a precipitation event towards the end of Thanksgiving week - Thursday or Friday. A bit early to determine precipitation type of if that event will even develop. So, stay tuned - as always!
Have a GREAT week everyone and stay safe.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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