Morning update for all of you weather enthusiasts...
No real changes in the overall forecast for today and tonight. Some precipitation will move back into the region this evening and during the overnight hours. This will likely be mostly snow over the northern half of the area (Poplar Bluff north to Farmington and then over to Mt Vernon and areas north of Carbondale -along that line) - a rain/snow mix in the middle (Cape Girardeau over to Metropolis/Paducah) - and mostly rain as you move towards the KY/TN border and south from there.
As far as accumulations - rainfall totals would likely be less than 0.25" - and snowfall totals would likely be less than 2".
There are indications on the high resolution computer models (those are what help us forecast the weather) of a band of heavier snow setting up somewhere over the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (northern part). This band could produce locally heavier snows. Say in the 2-4" range. But - this is highly uncertain - but thought I would mention the potential.
Looking ahead...
Rain will move back into the region late on Tuesday into Wednesday and then there are some indications now that Thursday could even be wet. I will monitor and update accordingly.
The next weather system we will be watching will arrive on Saturday or Sunday and then another early next week.
This isn't charades - I think you get the picture. :) Cool and active weather pattern for the next 10-14 days.
The coming weekend might bring some 60s back into the region. But - keep in mind - that the warmer it is the better chances for strong or severe thunderstorms. Warm air will come at a price.
I have turned on the GR Earth 2 Precipitation Typing Radar for tonight - you should be able to track the precip type via that radar (some of our others, as well).
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
- Beau
Sunday, March 27, 2011
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Difficult forecast in the coming days as we have a number of weather systems that will impact the region. The good news is that we are not forecasting any severe thunderstorms - at this time. The bad news is that the cool and wet pattern is going to continue.
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds - increasingly cloudy during the afternoon. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: lower 40s - except for 30s over the western and northern part of the region | Wind: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.---
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Sunday night: Cloudy with a good chance for showers and snow showers. Little in the way of snow accumulation expected in the Metropolis/Paducah area. A little better chance for a dusting of snow as you move north in the area. Cold with below normal temperatures.
Lows: lower to middle 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Lows: lower to middle 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
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Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 50 degrees | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph.---
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Monday night: A few clouds. Chilly.
Lows: 32-34 degrees | Wind: Northeast at 5-10 mph.
Lows: 32-34 degrees | Wind: Northeast at 5-10 mph.
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Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increasing through the day. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: Lower to middle 50s | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. ---
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area on Sunday or Sunday night.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out! We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Let's take a look at the expected rainfall/snowfall totals for Sunday night and Monday morning - light. I am thinking less than 0.25" of rain. That could mean a dusting of snow over our northern counties. I will need to tweak where the rain/snow line ends up. Right now I am thinking that most of southeast Missouri from Poplar Bluff to Cape Girardeau and then much of southern Illinois should see some snowflakes. Portions of west Kentucky may see a rain/snow mix. Again - light event with little in the way of real accumulation. 
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Then another system moves in on Tuesday into Wednesday. Another round of showers and perhaps thunderstorms for our region. Rainfall totals from that event may be in the 1/2" range. Here is your 5 day rainfall total forecast (again much of this would be with the Tuesday and Wednesday system - with just a little bit of it being with the Sunday night system)
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Looking aheadWe will be watching a system for Thursday/Friday/Saturday - low confidence
We will be watching for a possible severe weather event around April 3rd or 4th
Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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