Evening update
Rain is pushing east out of the region - several reports of small hail over the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky earlier.
Some more light rain and snow will push across the region this evening and during the overnight hours. No surprise there with the colder air moving in.
There is even a winter weather advisory for our far northern counties. I still believe there will be some 4-8" amounts across portions of Missouri into Illinois. More towards the Ozarks and St Louis area - west of there and southwest of there.
Otherwise - cloudy tonight with below normal temperatures.
There will be another round of rain/snow mix on Sunday night and then another system moves in on TUE/WED.
- Beau
Saturday, March 26, 2011
9 AM Update:
GOOOOOOOOD SATURDAY MORNING!
Remember last fall when I told you we would have a cold/wet spring :) - I wasn't kidding.
OKAY - there is nothing good about this weather forecast. Unless you are duck (and even then I am not sure you would like the forecast)
Rain is moving back into the area. Rain will mix with snow over our northern counties and change to all snow tonight. Best chance for seeing snow would be areas north of Cape Girardeau over to Evansville.
A few inches of snow is not out of the question over our northern counties. Crazy - I know (don't be surprised to see some 4-8 inch amounts in some counties - Ozarks of Missouri and across the border into parts of Illinois)!
The rest of us will experience a cold rain - with some thunderstorms. A few strong storms not out of the question. There were some reports of small hail in southwest Missouri. Even a few severe thunderstorm warnings. So - keep that in mind.
I will post an image grab from 9 am showing all the lightning to our west. The little orange dots and plus signs are lightning strokes. Lot of lightning.
Rainfall totals around 0.25-0.50" across the region from this storm. Perhaps a bit more in some counties.
Next system will arrive on TUE/WED and another one later next week. Below normal temperatures likely to continue. Sorry about that :(
Here is the lightning image I promised you - remember this was taken at 9 am and shows the lightning over the past few hours. Just to give you an idea of how widespread the thunder has been with this system. The little green round icons indicate where hail was reported.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
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Just a reminder that if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then you need to get one! I have several in my house and most of my family and friends have them. When seconds counts the NOAA Weather Radio will provide you with the most up to date information - watches and warnings. The NOAA Weather Radio is your "first alert" system when dealing with severe storms.
You can order them at this web-site (WPSD is sponsoring this along with my friends over at Midland NOAA Weather Radio) - I recommend the WR 300 model.
http://retail.petra.com/
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Just a reminder that if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then you need to get one! I have several in my house and most of my family and friends have them. When seconds counts the NOAA Weather Radio will provide you with the most up to date information - watches and warnings. The NOAA Weather Radio is your "first alert" system when dealing with severe storms.
You can order them at this web-site (WPSD is sponsoring this along with my friends over at Midland NOAA Weather Radio) - I recommend the WR 300 model.
http://retail.petra.com/
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You can also sign up for WeatherCall - I have signed up for this service. During severe thunderstorm warnings the service will call you when your house is placed in a POLYGON warning. What does that mean? It means if you are in the exact path of the storm or the exact outline of the warning then you will get a personal phone call warning your of the storm. Find out more about WeatherCall by going to this link---
Rain will spread across the region from west to east during the late morning hours. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question - no severe weather is forecast. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms south of the Memphis, Tennessee area. Hail is likely with a few cells along the MO/AR line and then into the KY/TN line area and southward.
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Rainfall totals across the region should be in the 0.30-0.60" range. Lowered the totals a little bit. There could be pockets of heavier amounts.
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There will be an opportunity for the rain to change to a mixture of snow/rain/sleet on Saturday night across our area - especially from Cape Girardeau to Marion northward - there is a winter weather advisory for the St Louis area. The further north and west you go the better the chances for seeing snow.
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Either way a cold rain event for much of our region - with some snow over the northern and northwestern portions of the area.
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The long range forecast also indicates below normal temperatures. Our streak of above normal temperatures is over - for now.
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Watching another storm system for next Tuesday. Will monitor this event for possible thunderstorm potential. This risk will depend on the storm track. If the low pressure tracks further north then that would put us on the warm side of the system - thus a better chance for thunderstorms. If the low tracks further south then we would likely end up with a cold rain.
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http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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We will soon be offering you a lot more weather graphic products (see a sample below) - this should be ready in a week or two!Charities helping Japan...
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http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1221
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
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Saturday: Cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms redeveloping during the late morning hours. Snow will be possible over our northern counties - with the rain. Possibly mixed with sleet. Best chances for accumulations will be north of Farmington over towards central and northern southern Illinois. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: middle 40s - except for 30s over the western and northern part of the region | Wind: East/northeast winds at 10-15 mph.---
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Saturday night: Cloudy with a chance for rain - rain may mix with or change to snow and sleet over portions of our region - especially the northern portions of the area - Cape Girardeau over to Marion and northward stand the better chances of wintry precipitation. Precipitation ending during the late evening hours. Below normal temperatures to continue.
Lows: lower to middle 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
Lows: lower to middle 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
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Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds - a sprinkle or flurry possible. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 45 degrees | Wind: North/northeast winds at 10 mph.---
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy. A stray sprinkle or flurry. Chilly.
Lows: 28-32 degrees | Wind: North/northeast at 10 mph.
Lows: 28-32 degrees | Wind: North/northeast at 10 mph.
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Monday: Mostly sunny. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: Lower 50s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph. ---
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: A few strong storms possible - especially over the southern Missouri area and into Kentucky and Tennessee. Small hail is likely with the heaviest cells along the MO/AR line and along the KY/TN border - southward. Gusty winds, as well.
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Your severe weather forecast for Saturday - you can see the yellow area which represents general thunderstorms (not severe) and then the orange area which represents a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Remember the Storm Prediction Center which issues these forecasts has three levels of severe risk - slight - moderate - and high. Slight risk normally means that some severe weather is possible but that it is not forecast to be widespread.
You can see the risk on Saturday will be from around the Memphis area and then south and southeast from there.
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Your severe weather forecast for Saturday - you can see the yellow area which represents general thunderstorms (not severe) and then the orange area which represents a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Remember the Storm Prediction Center which issues these forecasts has three levels of severe risk - slight - moderate - and high. Slight risk normally means that some severe weather is possible but that it is not forecast to be widespread.
You can see the risk on Saturday will be from around the Memphis area and then south and southeast from there.
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Your regional and local radars - including several new interactive city radars - click here
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Let's take a look at the 12 hour weather maps for Saturday into Sunday - you can see the precipitation moving in and then out of the region. You can also see the rough line for where the frozen precipitation will fall. Brrrr :)
You can see the time stamp for the 12 hour forecast time periods at the top of each image - along with the scale of what each color represents.
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Let's take a look at the forecast precipitation totals (map below) for the Saturday rain event. You can see the scale at the top of the image. Fairly widespread precipitation event for the region - but not too heavy. Most likely in the 0.25-0.60" range across the region (locally heavier in spots).
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Now let's take a look at the probability of a quarter of an inch of rain falling in a six hour period tomorrow afternoon - you can see the probabilities are fairly high - almost certain.
And finally let's take a look at the winter weather advisory in Missouri - gives you an idea of just how close the snow will be falling. The area in blue is the winter weather advisory. Several inches of snow may fall in the blue outlined area - remember that the advisory area could change as updated forecasts arrive. Check noaa.gov for the latest watch and warning outlines.
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And finally - let's take a look at your six to ten day outlook for temperatures - followed by the eight to fourteen day outlook. As you could have guessed :) - blue means below normal temperatures. I know - I know - boo and hiss. I hear you! I am ready for spring just as much as the next person. I am sure we will have a few nice days mixed into this time period. Let's hold out some hope!
The first graphic is the 6-10 day outlook for temperatures and the second graphic is the 8-14 day outlook for temperatures.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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