April 1, 2011: All eyes turn towards Sunday into Monday night...

Friday,  April 1, 2011 
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A few showers and thunderstorms will be scattered around our region on Friday - these are not expected to be widespread.  The best chance of storms will be over the northern and northeast portion of our region
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Warmer temperatures will spread into the region on Saturday and Sunday.  A warm front will pass through the area on Saturday night and Sunday morning.  I can't rule out a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the warm front. 
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The big concern arrives on Sunday night and especially on Monday into Monday night.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms - some severe - are likely to spread into the region in advance of a strong storm system over the Central United States.
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Sunday will bring warmer temperatures and moist air into our region.  This will set the stage for possible heavy rain and strong thunderstorms on Sunday night and more likely on Monday (starting to appear that Monday might be the day to zero in on). 
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Rainfall totals with the system could be in the 1-2" range with locally heavier amounts.  As always with severe weather the finer details will need to be worked out in the coming days.  I do believe there will be a risk for some tornadoes on Sunday night to our west and then in or near our region on Monday.  Large hail and damaging wind will also be a concern.  
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There remains questions on timing of the system for Sunday night into Monday morning.  At this time it appears the greatest risk for strong and/or severe thunderstorms will arrive on Monday.  However, if the system speeds up then we may need to also monitor Sunday night. 
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Stay tuned
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Friday:  A mix of sun and clouds with a few scattered showers or thunderstorms around the region - widely scattered.
Highs:  middle 50s  | Wind: West/southwest winds at 5-15 mph and gusty.
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Friday night:  Clearing skies.
Lows:  middle to upper 30s  | Wind: West winds at 5 mph
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Saturday:  Partly sunny and warmer. 
Highs: around 65 degrees  |  Wind: West winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty.
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms late.  Mild.
Lows: 43 degrees | Wind: Northwest at 10 mph.
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Sunday: Partly cloudy much warmer with a few thunderstorms in the morning. Windy at times.
Highs:  middle 70s  | Wind: Winds becoming southeast at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

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Here are the forecasted 5 day rainfall totals for the region - you get the general idea.  Some heavy rain is possible on Sunday night into Monday night (that is when most of this will fall).
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area.  
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the following area for Monday - they are concerned, as well, about a potential severe thunderstorm event over our region.  This forecast will be fine tuned in the coming days.  

The area outlined in orange is the risk zone they have painted for Monday (note the date stamp at the top of the image is incorrect and should read Monday through Tuesday 8 am)
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Looking ahead

Watching another system towards the end of next week.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Posted by Beau Dodson 0 comments

March 31, 2011: Goodbye March - rain chances - severe chances?

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Severe weather outbreak increasingly looks likely on Monday in and near our region.  Stay tuned.

Thursday,  March 31, 2011 
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Can I get a show of hands of those who are going to be disappointed to see March come to an end?  Anyone?  Unfortunately, just because April is starting does not mean warmer weather.  We still have several weeks of on/off cool temperatures to go.  Sorry.
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The next storm system on the weather map will arrive on Thursday evening into Thursday night.  This storm system will produce a few showers and thunderstorms in and near our region.  It is questionable - at best - as to whether the precipitation will be widespread.  We will just leave it as a few showers and thunderstorms - for now. Severe weather is not expected from this system.
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Another chance for a few showers will arrive on Friday into Friday afternoon - a weak impulse will bring a chance for light precipitation.  Will monitor and tweak that part of the forecast.
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Warmer weather will arrive on Saturday and especially Sunday over our region - but it will come with a price.  Saturday may have some clouds around with gusty winds.  So - that might temper the warmth.  We will see.
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A warm front will approach our region on Saturday night and Sunday.  There should be a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the warm front.  Then precipitation will clear out of the region for the majority of the day on Sunday. 
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Sunday will bring warmer temperatures and moist air into our region.  This will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms on Sunday night and more likely on Monday (starting to appear that Monday might be the day to zero in on). 
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Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will likely occur with this storm system on Sunday into Monday night from the Central United States into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley.  Stay tuned
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Thursday:  Partly sunny with increasing clouds during the afternoon.  A chance for a few showers late in the day - especially over the western and northwestern part of the area.  Chilly with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  lower to middle 50s  | Wind: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
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Thursday night:  Cloudy with a few showers around - rumble of thunder possible.
Lows:  lower 40s  | Wind: southeast winds at 5 mph
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Friday:  A chance for a scattered shower. 
Highs: around 55 degrees  |  Wind: West winds at 15-30 mph. Gusty.
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Friday night: Cloudy early and then becoming partly cloudy.
Lows: 37 degrees | Wind: Northwest at 10-15 mph.
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Saturday: Partly cloudy and a bit warmer. 
Highs:  upper 50s and lower 60s  | Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty.

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area.  
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Looking ahead

We will be watching for a possible severe weather and heavy rain event on Sunday night into Monday night.
Watching another system towards the end of next week.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Posted by Beau Dodson 0 comments

March 30, 2011: Rain comes to an end - more rain chances late on Thursday

Wednesday, March 30, 2011
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9 AM Update
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Unsettled weather ahead of us with several chances of rain and possibly some severe weather later in the weekend and early next week...
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A cool morning greets are region - temperatures are in the upper 30s and lower 40s across most of our counties.  
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Snow and rain has moved off to our east over the last few hours.  We are left with mostly cloudy skies.  The sun should make some attempt to poke through the clouds later this morning.  If this does happen then temperatures should rise into the 50s.
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I am increasingly concerned about a severe weather event for Sunday into Monday.  I will need to tweak the time frame.  A warm front will pass through the region on Saturday night - ahead of the warm front there could be some showers and thunderstorms.  These are expected to remain below severe levels.  Can't rule out small hail.
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A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return late on Thursday into Thursday night.
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Then a bigger storm system will approach the region on Sunday into Sunday night.  This system may bring a round of severe thunderstorms in or near our region on Sunday night into Monday.  Again - the timing is a bit in question.  Our region will need to monitor this event.
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Rainfall totals from the Sunday into Monday system could top 1".
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CAPE values (amount of energy in the atmosphere) and wind fields with this storm (Sunday/Monday) appear strong enough to warrant our attention.  Stay tuned
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Morning temperatures across the area (8 AM temps)



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Rainfall totals from the Thursday evening and Thursday night system are shown below.  Fairly light with most amounts in the 0.10-0.30" range.


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Previous Update
Wednesday, March 30, 2011 

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Rain will come to an end on Wednesday morning.  Another system arrives Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening bringing more rain chances.  Rumble of thunder possible.
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Friday will be quite windy.   Watching another weak storm for Friday afternoon but confidence is low on whether or not it will produce precipitation.  Will mention a shower - for now.
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One good bit of news - warmer weather will arrive for the weekend!  Yes - you heard that right - warmer air for the weekend.  :)  
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A few showers will likely accompany the warm front on Saturday night.  A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out on Saturday night. 
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I am still monitoring the Sunday night into Monday afternoon time frame for a severe weather outbreak over portions of the central United States down into the Tennessee Valley/Mississippi River Valley.
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Wednesday:  Rain will come to an end - chance for mixed precipitation over our northern counties - again coming to an end during the morning hours.  Chilly with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  lower to middle 50s  | Wind: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
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Wednesday night:  Partly cloudy.  Cold with below normal temperatures.
Lows:  middle 30s  | Wind: Northeast winds at 5 mph
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Thursday:  Increasing clouds with a chance for rain showers late in the day. .
Highs: around 45 degrees  |  Wind: South winds at 10 mph.
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Thursday night: Showers likely.  Chilly.
Lows:  35-38 degrees | Wind: South/southwest at 10-20 mph.
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Friday: Windy.  Rain coming to an end.  Possible shower late in the day.  .
Highs:  upper 50s  | Wind: West winds at 15-30 mph. Gusty.

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area.  
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 We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Looking ahead

We will be watching a system for Thursday night and Friday morning - to bring more rain.
We will be watching for a possible severe weather event on Sunday night into Monday afternoon.
Watching another system towards the end of next week.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php


To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Posted by Beau Dodson 0 comments

March 29, 2011: More rain and then some more rain - warm weekend ahead.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Good morning :)

Rain spreads into the region this afternoon and tonight.  No severe weather is anticipated.

- Beau

Tuesday, March 29, 2011 
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Did someone say they wanted more rain?  I guess I heard wrong.  Well, whether you wanted rain or not - rain is on the way.  We have also had to add rain into the forecast for the Thursday night into Friday morning time period (we thought that was possible - and so it goes).  
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One good bit of news - warmer weather will arrive for the weekend!  Yes - you heard that right - warmer air for the weekend.  :)  So - not all is lost.  Let's keep hope alive for a least a few spring like days - before summer arrives.  Ack - I am rushing the seasons - sorry!  :)
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky

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Tuesday:  Periods of showers - especially in the afternoon.  Chilly with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  lower to middle 50s  | Wind: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
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Tuesday night:  Cloudy - rain.  A rumble of thunder possible.  A chance of snow or rain/snow mix over the northern portion of the area.  Cold with below normal temperatures.
Lows:  middle 30s  | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
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Wednesday:  Cloudy early then becoming partly sunny. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 55 degrees  |  Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph.
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Wednesday night: A few clouds.  Chilly.
Lows:  35-38 degrees | Wind: Northeast at 5 mph.
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Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Increasingly cloudy during the afternoon hours.
Highs:  middle to upper 50s  | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. 

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area on Tuesday or Tuesday night.  I can't rule out a strong storm - with hail - over portions of northern Arkansas and Tennessee.  But, I believe any severe threat will stay south of most of our counties.  




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Here is the official map for Tuesday's severe weather outlook - keep in mind that this map will be updated several times between now and the end of Tuesday - but you get the general idea where severe weather is or is not expected.  The yellow area means general thunder is possible (not severe).

The orange area is a slight risk zone that has been outlined.

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Let's take a look at our river level here in Paducah.  You can see on the above chart that river levels continue to fall.  This is forecast to continue for the near term.  We are seeing dramatic rises on the rivers up in North and South Dakota over to Minnesota.  This is something we will need to watch in the coming weeks.
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Let's take a look at the drought monitor.  We have not looked at this graphic for awhile.  You can see that there has been improvement over our area in the drought conditions.  However, some of our counties still need more rain and are averaging below normal if you look back at the past six months.  This is something we will need to monitor, as well - in the coming months.  

Area to our south have not been so fortunate.  A significant drought continues over many states.
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Speaking of precipitation - let's take a look at the 6-10 day precipitation chart.  This was updated today.  You can see that we should expect a continued period of wet weather over the coming 1-2 weeks.  I guess we are used to the rain by now.

Which brings us to our next graphic - below - and that would be the 6-10 day temperature outlook.  You can see that we continue our trend with below normal temperatures.

Now, that isn't to say that we won't see some warm days.  We will.  As a matter of fact - this weekend should bring some 60s and 70s to the region.  Good news for those wanting to get the yard mowed or who want to get outside and enjoy the fresh air!



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And finally - the above map shows how much precipitation we are expecting over the next 72 hours.  You can see mostly 0.30-0.60" amounts.  Locally heavier amounts possible - especially over the southern half of the area.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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Looking ahead

We will be watching a system for Thursday night and Friday morning - to bring more rain.
We will be watching for a possible severe weather event around April 3rd or 4th

Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
 
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Posted by Beau Dodson 0 comments

Monday, March 28, 2011: Snow/Rain ending - cooler - more rain on the way!

Monday, March 28, 2011

Morning update -

Rain/snow will be moving out during the early am hours - before sunrise.  Precipitation will push off to the east.

More rain chances rain/snow chances arrive in the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The rest of the forecast is below


-  Beau


Monday, March 28, 2011 
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Rain and snow that moved through the area on Sunday night should be coming to an end on Monday morning before sunrise.  At the time of this writing (9 pm Sunday) it appears the chances for any significant accumulations of snow are fairly low.  If a band of snow were to set up over the area then some accumulation would be possible on grassy surfaces.  Would not rule out a band of 1-3" of snow.  

This is highly dependent on whether or not the band of snow can actually develop.  Bottom line - low confidence in any accumulation and the most likely area for accumulation would be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  There is even a chance of some of that snow snow/rain mix pushing into parts of western Kentucky as the system pulls away late on Sunday night and early Monday morning. Again, this is not a big deal and most people wouldn't even see the snow because it will be so early  in the morning (early Monday morning between 12 am and 4 am)

I did note that one of the high resolution models did show 1-4" of snow over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois.  Wet snow.  Below is the graphic - it is a tough call because ground temperatures are warm and temperatures are marginal for snow accumulation.  Again, really not a big deal.
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Otherwise, an unsettled weather pattern ahead of us.  Cool days with below normal temperatures and several chances of rain (and even snow over some of our counties - we just can't shake the late winter pattern).  

I am forecasting warmer weather this coming weekend!  We will likely see some 60s and 70s by Saturday and Sunday!  I know all of you are looking forward to warmer temperatures.  
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I am watching a potential severe weather maker for the central United States around Sunday into Monday (April 3rd through April 5th).  Long way off - but worth watching.  There could be several rounds of severe weather over the next couple of weeks as we see a potential shift in the overall pattern.  Stay tuned!
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky

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Monday: Rain and snow ending.  Becoming partly sunny.  Cool with below normal temperatures. Rainfall totals less than 0.30" before sunrise.
Highs:  upper 40s to lower 50s.  | Wind:  Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
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Monday night:  Cloudy.  Cold with below normal temperatures.
Lows:  middle 30s  | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
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Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy with showers increasing during the day. Cool with below normal temperatures. 
Highs: around 50 degrees - cooler over the northern and western part of the region  |  Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph.
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Tuesday night: Rain - a chance for snow over our northern and northwestern counties.  A chance for a rumble of thunder, as well.  Chilly.  Total rainfall on Tuesday and Tuesday night should be in the 0.30-0.60" range.  Some snow accumulation is possible over the far northern parts of southeast Missouri and over the far northern parts of southern Illinois.  Will need to monitor the rain/snow line.
Lows:  32-34 degrees | Wind: North/northeast at 5-10 mph.
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Wednesday: Rain and rain/snow coming to an end during the morning hours.  Then a mix of sun and clouds.  Slightly warmer.
Highs:  Lower to middle 50s  | Wind: North winds at 10 mph. 

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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----The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area on Monday or Monday night.
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Your 5 day rainfall forecast (most of this will fall on Tuesday into Wednesday morning).  The scale is at the top of the graphic.  As you can see, most of our region is in the 0.25-0.60" range.  Locally heavier amounts. 
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm--- -------------------- 
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Looking ahead

Widespread precipitation again on Tuesday into Tuesday night
We will be watching a system for Thursday - low confidence for precipitation chances
We will be watching for a possible severe weather event around April 3rd or 4th  medium confidence

Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
 
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
Posted by Beau Dodson 0 comments

March 27, 2011: Snow and rain! Say it isn't so! Unsettled pattern ahead...

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Morning update for all of you weather enthusiasts...

No real changes in the overall forecast for today and tonight.  Some precipitation will move back into the region this evening and during the overnight hours.  This will likely be mostly snow over the northern half of the area (Poplar Bluff north to Farmington and then over to Mt Vernon and areas north of Carbondale -along that line)  - a rain/snow mix in the middle (Cape Girardeau over to Metropolis/Paducah) - and mostly rain as you move towards the KY/TN border and south from there.

As far as accumulations - rainfall totals would likely be less than 0.25" - and snowfall totals would likely be less than 2".

There are indications on the high resolution computer models (those are what help us forecast the weather) of a band of heavier snow setting up somewhere over the northern half of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (northern part).  This band could produce locally heavier snows.  Say in the 2-4" range.  But - this is highly uncertain - but thought I would mention the potential.

Looking ahead...

Rain will move back into the region late on Tuesday into Wednesday and then there are some indications now that Thursday could even be wet.  I will monitor and update accordingly.

The next weather system we will be watching will arrive on Saturday or Sunday and then another early next week.

This isn't charades - I think you get the picture.  :)  Cool and active weather pattern for the next 10-14 days.  

The coming weekend might bring some 60s back into the region.  But - keep in mind - that the warmer it is the better chances for strong or severe thunderstorms.  Warm air will come at a price.

I have turned on the GR Earth 2 Precipitation Typing Radar for tonight - you should be able to track the precip type via that radar (some of our others, as well).

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

- Beau


Sunday, March 27, 2011 
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Difficult forecast in the coming days as we have a number of weather systems that will impact the region.  The good news is that we are not forecasting any severe thunderstorms - at this time.  The bad news is that the cool and wet pattern is going to continue.
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky

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Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds - increasingly cloudy during the afternoon.   Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  lower 40s - except for 30s over the western and northern part of the region  | Wind: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
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Sunday night:  Cloudy with a good chance for showers and snow showers. Little in the way of snow accumulation expected in the Metropolis/Paducah area.  A little better chance for a dusting of snow as you move north in the area.  Cold with below normal temperatures.
Lows:  lower to middle 30s  | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
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Monday:  A mix of sun and clouds. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 50 degrees  |  Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph.
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Monday night: A few clouds.  Chilly.
Lows:  32-34 degrees | Wind: Northeast at 5-10 mph.
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Tuesday: Mostly cloudy.  Shower chances increasing through the day.  Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  Lower to middle 50s  | Wind: East winds at 10 mph. 

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: No severe weather is forecast in our area on Sunday or Sunday night.

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---

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Let's take a look at the expected rainfall/snowfall totals for Sunday night and Monday morning - light.  I am thinking less than 0.25" of rain.  That could mean a dusting of snow over our northern counties.  I will need to tweak where the rain/snow line ends up.  Right now I am thinking that most of southeast Missouri from Poplar Bluff to Cape Girardeau and then much of southern Illinois should see some snowflakes.  Portions of west Kentucky may see a rain/snow mix.  Again - light event with little in the way of real accumulation.  



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Then another system moves in on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Another round of showers and perhaps thunderstorms for our region.  Rainfall totals from that event may be in the 1/2" range.  Here is your 5 day rainfall total forecast (again much of this would be with the Tuesday and Wednesday system - with just a little bit of it being with the Sunday night system)

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Looking ahead

We will be watching a system for Thursday/Friday/Saturday - low confidence
We will be watching for a possible severe weather event around April 3rd or 4th

Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
 
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

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Posted by Beau Dodson 0 comments

March 26, 2011: A wet Saturday ahead of us! More rain next week - below normal temps...

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Evening update

Rain is pushing east out of the region - several reports of small hail over the Missouri Bootheel and western Kentucky earlier.  

Some more light rain and snow will push across the region this evening and during the overnight hours.  No surprise there with the colder air moving in.

There is even a winter weather advisory for our far northern counties.  I still believe there will be some 4-8" amounts across portions of Missouri into Illinois.  More towards the Ozarks and St Louis area - west of there and southwest of there.

Otherwise - cloudy tonight with below normal temperatures.

There will be another round of rain/snow mix on Sunday night and then another system moves in on TUE/WED.

- Beau


Saturday, March 26, 2011

9 AM Update:

GOOOOOOOOD SATURDAY MORNING!

Remember last fall when I told you we would have a cold/wet spring :) - I wasn't kidding.

OKAY - there is nothing good about this weather forecast.  Unless you are duck (and even then I am not sure you would like the forecast)

Rain is moving back into the area.  Rain will mix with snow over our northern counties and change to all snow tonight.  Best chance for seeing snow would be areas north of Cape Girardeau over to Evansville. 

A few inches of snow is not out of the question over our northern counties.  Crazy - I know (don't be surprised to see some 4-8 inch amounts in some counties - Ozarks of Missouri and across the border into parts of Illinois)!

The rest of us will experience a cold rain - with some thunderstorms.  A few strong storms not out of the question.  There were some reports of small hail in southwest Missouri.  Even a few severe thunderstorm warnings.  So - keep that in mind.

I will post an image grab from 9 am showing all the lightning to our west.  The little orange dots and plus signs are lightning strokes.  Lot of lightning.

Rainfall totals around 0.25-0.50" across the region from this storm.  Perhaps a bit more in some counties.  

Next system will arrive on TUE/WED and another one later next week.  Below normal temperatures likely to continue.  Sorry about that :(

Here is the lightning image I promised you - remember this was taken at 9 am and shows the lightning over the past few hours.  Just to give you an idea of how widespread the thunder has been with this system.  The little green round icons indicate where hail was reported.




Saturday, March 26, 2011 

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Just a reminder that if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio then you need to get one!   I have several in my house and most of my family and friends have them.  When seconds counts the NOAA Weather Radio will provide you with the most up to date information - watches and warnings.  The NOAA Weather Radio is your "first alert" system when dealing with severe storms.

You can order them at this web-site (WPSD is sponsoring this along with my friends over at Midland NOAA Weather Radio) - I recommend the WR 300 model.


http://retail.petra.com/
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You can also sign up for WeatherCall - I have signed up for this service.  During severe thunderstorm warnings the service will call you when your house is placed in a POLYGON warning.  What does that mean?  It means if you are in the exact path of the storm or the exact outline of the warning then you will get a personal phone call warning your of the storm.  Find out more about WeatherCall by going to this link

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Rain will spread across the region from west to east during the late morning hours.  A rumble of thunder is not out of the question - no severe weather is forecast.  There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms south of the Memphis, Tennessee area.  Hail is likely with a few cells along the MO/AR line and then into the KY/TN line area and southward.
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Rainfall totals across the region should be in the 0.30-0.60" range.  Lowered the totals a little bit.  There could be pockets of heavier amounts.  
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There will be an opportunity for the rain to change to a mixture of snow/rain/sleet on Saturday night across our area - especially from Cape Girardeau to Marion northward - there is a winter weather advisory for the St Louis area.  The further north and west you go the better the chances for seeing snow.
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Either way a cold rain event for much of our region - with some snow over the northern and northwestern portions of the area.
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The long range forecast also indicates below normal temperatures.  Our streak of above normal temperatures is over - for now.
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Watching another storm system for next Tuesday.  Will monitor this event for possible thunderstorm potential.  This risk will depend on the storm track.  If the low pressure tracks further north then that would put us on the warm side of the system - thus a better chance for thunderstorms.  If the low tracks further south then we would likely end up with a cold rain.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site - please check them out!  We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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We will soon be offering you a lot more weather graphic products (see a sample below) - this should be ready in a week or two!

Charities helping Japan...
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http://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=1221
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Bottom Line It For Me Beau - for far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky
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Saturday:  Cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms redeveloping during the late morning hours.  Snow will be possible over our northern counties - with the rain.  Possibly mixed with sleet.  Best chances for accumulations will be north of Farmington over towards central and northern southern Illinois.   Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  middle 40s - except for 30s over the western and northern part of the region  | Wind: East/northeast winds at 10-15 mph.
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Saturday night:  Cloudy with a chance for rain - rain may mix with or change to snow and sleet over portions of our region - especially the northern portions of the area - Cape Girardeau over to Marion and northward stand the better chances of wintry precipitation.  Precipitation ending during the late evening hours.  Below normal temperatures to continue.
Lows:  lower to middle 30s  | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
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Sunday:  A mix of sun and clouds - a sprinkle or flurry possible. Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 45 degrees  |  Wind: North/northeast winds at 10 mph.
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Sunday night: Partly cloudy.   A stray sprinkle or flurry.  Chilly.
Lows:  28-32 degrees | Wind: North/northeast at 10 mph.
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Monday: Mostly sunny.  Cool with below normal temperatures.
Highs:  Lower 50s  | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph. 

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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site (simply click on the day of the week for the latest video).
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: A few strong storms possible - especially over the southern Missouri area and into Kentucky and Tennessee.  Small hail is likely with the heaviest cells along the MO/AR line and along the KY/TN border - southward.  Gusty winds, as well.
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Your severe weather forecast for Saturday -  you can see the yellow area which represents general thunderstorms (not severe) and then the orange area which represents a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.  Remember the Storm Prediction Center which issues these forecasts has three levels of severe risk - slight - moderate - and high.  Slight risk normally means that some severe weather is possible but that it is not forecast to be widespread.  

You can see the risk on Saturday will be from around the Memphis area and then south and southeast from there.



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Your regional and local radars - including several new interactive city radars  - click here  
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Let's take a look at the 12 hour weather maps for Saturday into Sunday - you can see the precipitation moving in and then out of the region.  You can also see the rough line for where the frozen precipitation will fall.   Brrrr :)  

You can see the time stamp for the 12 hour forecast time periods at the top of each image - along with the scale of what each color represents.
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Let's take a look at the forecast precipitation totals (map below) for the Saturday rain event.  You can see the scale at the top of the image.  Fairly widespread precipitation event for the region - but not too heavy.  Most likely in the 0.25-0.60" range across the region (locally heavier in spots).




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Now let's take a look at the probability of a quarter of an inch of rain falling in a six hour period tomorrow afternoon - you can see the probabilities are fairly high - almost certain.



And finally let's take a look at the winter weather advisory in Missouri - gives you an idea of just how close the snow will be falling.  The area in blue is the winter weather advisory.  Several inches of snow may fall in the blue outlined area - remember that the advisory area could change as updated forecasts arrive.  Check noaa.gov for the latest watch and warning outlines.



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And finally - let's take a look at your six to ten day outlook for temperatures - followed by the eight to fourteen day outlook.  As you could have guessed :) - blue means below normal temperatures.  I know - I know - boo and hiss.  I hear you!  I am ready for spring just as much as the next person.  I am sure we will have a few nice days mixed into this time period.  Let's hold out some hope!

The first graphic is the 6-10 day outlook for temperatures and the second graphic is the 8-14 day outlook for temperatures.





Meteorologist Beau Dodson McCracken County Office of Emergency Management ---
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here

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