Different parts of our area will experience different forms of precipitation from this event. Our southeast counties may experience thunderstorms and our northwest counties may experience ice accumulations large enough to bring down power lines and trees. This will be a tricky forecast and there is no room for error.
Note that the most damaging part of this storm is currently forecast to remain just north and west of the Paducah/Metropolis area. Areas to our north and west will be hit hard by this historic event.
Anyone with questions can email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Note that at this time most of the State of Kentucky is expecting rain. Rain may change to a period of snow at the end of the event. This is highly dependent on the track of the storm. If the storm tracks further east then more of Kentucky will be impacted by freezing rain and sleet. Stay tuned for updates - see sources below.
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A large and dangerous winter storm is developing over the southwest United States. This storm will track northeast into our region over the coming days.
Portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana will be completely shut down by this storm. Some areas will experience prolonged power outages that may last several days or weeks. Major damage is possible to trees and power lines over portions of the above mentioned areas.
Ice accumulations greater than 1" will be possible in some counties with strong winds. This would equal a category 4 or 5 ice storm. The highest level possible.
Ice Storm Scale http://weatherobservatory.com/icestorm-scale.htm
This storm has the potential to be equal to some of the blizzards of the late 1970s over portions of the central United States into the Great Lakes.
Snowfall in some areas will be measured in feet. It is not out of the question that portions of Missouri and Illinois-Indiana receive 1-2 feet of snow and locally more. With high winds this would mean snowdrifts of 4-8 feet in some areas with 10' or greater drifts in open-rural areas.
Blizzard watches have now been issued for portions of northern Illinois - additional blizzard watches and warnings will likely be issued as this storm unfolds.
Scattered light precipitation will begin over our southwestern counties late tonight and Monday morning. This precipitation will shift north and east through the day. Precipitation will become more widespread on Monday night and increase into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Various forms of precipitation will occur with this storm - some areas will see rain changing to freezing rain and sleet and then back to rain and then back to freezing rain and sleet. Some of our counties will experience only rain until the end of the storm when rain may change to a period of light snow (late Tuesday night into Wednesday).
This makes for an extremely difficult forecast. The difference from one county to the next could be significant.
At this time western Kentucky is expected to remain mostly rain until the end of the event. Rain is forecast to change to snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Some light accumulations are possible.
Far southern Illinois will be on the line of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain. Please check the local zip code forecast for updates - it is possible that the borderline counties will not be known until hours before the event.
There is zero room for error in this forecast. If this storm deviates from the current track forecast then adjustments will need to be made to the watches and warning area.
You can check your local city zip code forecast - click here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/hw3/
You can track this winter storm on radar by clicking here
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
I am updating the Facebook page constantly with new information
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
The blog will also be updated regularly
http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/
or for those on blocked computers
http://www.stormreports.org/beaudodsonweather.htm
Video updates - next video will be posted around 10 pm tonight
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Our region will be very close to an extremely tight temperature gradient boundary. This means that portions of the area may be in the 20s and other parts of the region will be in the 60s.
Those on the cold side of this storm system will experience a prolonged sleet and freezing rain event.
A significant and potentially destructive ice storm is likely to occur over portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
At this time the National Weather Service believes the most damaging ice potential will occur over portions of southwest Missouri into the St Louis area and then into central Indiana.
This will include portions of our region - most likely our western and northwestern/northern counties.
There are still uncertainties as to the exact track of the area of low pressure. If forecasts are wrong and the cold air pushes further south and east than forecast then a significant and damaging ice storm will likely occur over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If the storm track is further west than forecast than more of us will experience just a plain old cold rain with little concern for ice or snow.
Again - I can't say it enough - this is a tricky forecast and some adjustments may occur in the track of this storm.
At this time the forecast is for Kentucky to remain mostly rain. Northern Kentucky - near the Indiana border - may experience a period of freezing rain. However, this is not for certain - just yet.
Winter storm watches have been issued for a large portion of the central United States - you can view all the watches and warnings by clicking here
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps
Paducah Area
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
The Paducah, Kentucky NWS has moved the winter storm watch further east and south. This morning the watch did not include southeast Missouri or southern Illinois. Now it does. Additional updates to this watch area may be necessary - again depending on storm track.
This is a fluid situation. Forecasts will continue to be tweaked and fine tuned over the coming 24-36 hours.
Anyone with travel plans northward on Monday afternoon into Thursday should reconsider their travel plans.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser P
revious update below
January 30, 2011
2 PM Update
The Paducah, KY NWS has added a row or two of counties to the winter storm watch. This will cover portions of southern IL and southeast MO - the counties we have been talking about for awhile now.
Some ice accumulation is possible Monday night into Tuesday night. The main concern will be slick ro
ads. Ice accumulation is expected to be heavier as you go north and west.
Track of this storm is KEY to sensible weather - there could be quite a difference from one county to the next as to what actually ends up falling from the sky. Rain vs sleet vs freezing rain vs snow.
Stay tuned for updates...
Latest watches/warnings
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Beau
Previous update
January 30, 2011
9 AM Update
No changes other than starting to fine tune the forecast down to the county level
I am thinking most of far southern IL and western KY will be just about all rain. No real changes on those thoughts.
The latest data takes the low pretty far north and west. This means a warmer solution with possible thunderstorms in west KY. This also means we should be able shave off some more of the southeast MO and southern IL counties from the highest threat area.
My forecast concern remains highest for the areas from Poplar Bluff, MO to Farmington, MO and then up to Mt Vernon, Illinois and then east of there into Indiana.
I am thinking rainfall totals will be in the 0.75"-1.50" range over our region. We need the rain - so this is good news.
Can't rule out some light frozen mix on Sunday night late and Monday over the region - most likely over our western and northern counties.
Here is the latest NAM snowfall map - this could be a crippling type event for portions of MO, IL, IN, and Ohio. Very high snow totals with strong winds. Also some freezing rain will likely occur - enough to cause damage to trees and power lines.
The map below is the NAM snowfall forecast. You can see that it is quite impressive and has shifted a little bit north and west. This seems to be the trend. A bigger storm will usually move further west and north.
Here is my updated map of the area most threatened by this storm. If the storm were to shift a little bit further east and south then this would need to be updated. However, as we draw closer to the event we should be able to continue to fine tune the forecast.
I may be a couple of counties too far north in central Indiana with the risk concern. Portions of central and southern Indiana may also have some freezing rain. So - that area shaded in red may need to be a bit further south.
January 30, 2011
Expensive and dangerous winter storm developing from Oklahoma into Ohio and Michigan...
Widespread heavy snow could cause sections of these states to shut down...
Significant ice accumulations could cause substantial damage to power lines and trees...
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Highest concern area - click for larger view - a shift in the storm track will cause this shaded area to have to be adjusted west or east. Highest concern area - click for larger view
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
My next update will be around 11 am Sunday morning
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER - click on the link and hit like at the top of the Facebook page. Then you will be subscribed.
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 30th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Scattered precipitation may start to form later tonight.
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Scattered precipitation may start to form later tonight.
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for mixed precipitation over some of our counties tonight and Monday - changing to rain and then possibly changing back to sleet, freezing rain, and snow on Tuesday. There will be major differences from one county to the next as to precipitation type. Please listen to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for updates.
The potential exists for a dangerous/deadly winter storm over portions of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
Forecast:
Sunday - More clouds than sun. A boundary will be placed across our region - temperatures will range from the 20s over the northern part of the area and in the 40s across the middle and southern part of our region.
Sunday Night - Cloudy with a slight chance for freezing rain, sleet, and rain - depending on what county you live in. Please check your local zip code and city forecast (see below)
Monday -Cloudy with a chance for freezing rain, sleet, and rain. Again this will vary from one county to the next in our region. Colder temps over our northern counties vs southern counties.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here. You can put your zip code in at the top for your specific zone forecast. I encourage you to do that because there will be a wide variety of precipitation types over our region in the coming days. One county to the next will likely not be the same forecast.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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We are tracking a major winter storm that will move into the central United States over the coming 24-48 hours.
This storm will spread everything from severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley to near blizzard conditions over portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
There will be a wide range of weather conditions in our local area - please see the video update.
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Winter storm watches and warnings will likely be issued for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Areas to the north and west will likely have freezing rain, sleet, and snow - our eastern and southeast counties will likely remain mostly rain.
Significant accumulations of ice and snow are likely over portions of our region - especially the western and northern counties.
This storm has the potential to shut down portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. If you have travel plans to the north and west over the upcoming few days then please check road conditions and current watches/warnings.
I will update the blog around 11 am on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.
If this storm tracks further south and east then it will have serious implications on what type of precipitation occurs in our region. If it tracks further north and west then more of our region will experience rain and thunderstorms.
Heavy precipitation is forecast over a large area of the United States. Rainfall totals of 1-2" will likely occur over our region and much of Tennessee and Kentucky. This could cause some flash flooding.
Dynamic storm system
Stay tuned...
This storm will spread everything from severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley to near blizzard conditions over portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
There will be a wide range of weather conditions in our local area - please see the video update.
I am leaning 80% rain for Metropolis and Paducah - Mayfield and Murray. This, again, will be highly dependent on the track of the low.
Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may experience substantial amounts of snow and ice. Again - depending on the storms track.
Winter storm watches and warnings will likely be issued for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Areas to the north and west will likely have freezing rain, sleet, and snow - our eastern and southeast counties will likely remain mostly rain.
Significant accumulations of ice and snow are likely over portions of our region - especially the western and northern counties.
This storm has the potential to shut down portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. If you have travel plans to the north and west over the upcoming few days then please check road conditions and current watches/warnings.
I will update the blog around 11 am on Sunday and Sunday afternoon.
If this storm tracks further south and east then it will have serious implications on what type of precipitation occurs in our region. If it tracks further north and west then more of our region will experience rain and thunderstorms.
Heavy precipitation is forecast over a large area of the United States. Rainfall totals of 1-2" will likely occur over our region and much of Tennessee and Kentucky. This could cause some flash flooding.
Dynamic storm system
Stay tuned...
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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