January 10, 2011: Light snow chances over the coming days - cold.

January 10, 2011

7 PM Update

Live Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
No changes - more snow to the north and less to the south.  Forecast belows looks good.  We will see how it goes.

Here is the latest WRF - I can't disagree with this - looking at radar and satellite.  Everything appears on track.

January 10, 2011

1 PM Update

Warm up coming?  Could be!  Lot of data pointing to somewhat warmer weather as we move towards the end of the month.  We have been stuck on cold for quite awhile.  I am sure nobody will complain about a warm up.  We will see if it actually happens.

Before then - winter winter and more winter.

Watching a potential storm for this coming weekend into early next week.  Still too far out to make a call on precipitation type.  I would advise everyone to stay tuned - there could be quite a bit of weather ahead of us.

Round one of the light snow event is over - as expected it barely clipped our southern counties with most Kentucky counties reporting nothing more than flurries or a small period of light snow overnight - a bit more over southeast KY.  Nothing major - HPC did an EXCELLENT job in handling the placement of the probabilities of 1" of snow or greater. 

Reports along the KY/TN border of 0.25-1/2" of snow.  Some counties a dusting.  Not too far outside of what was expected - perhaps on the low end.  Which isn't surprising with all the dry air this thing had to overcome.

Here are the advisories - the entire region except for our central counties are under advisories - some more counties may or may not be added.  This is up to the Paducah, KY NWS Office.  Either way the same conditions can be expected over the entire area - a little light snow tonight and Tuesday morning - with some slick spots.  More snow to the north - again and less south. 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/

That area of light snow is moving off to the east and northeast.

Most of our light snow event was forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday.  This still appears to be a very light event.  This is still only a medium confidence event - I have not raised it.  Some portions may only receive a dusting.  More to the north and less to the south.

Here is what the NAM is showing - again please notice that a large chunk of our region may only receive a dusting to an inch or so of snow.  More north and less south.

Here is the NAM Map - scale is at the bottom - click for larger image

Also here is a map issued at 2 pm - this is the probability of 1" or greater of snowfall tonight into Tuesday morning - as you can see this event is skirting our region. 

Since some of our KY/TN border counties received nothing at all from system one - that is going to cut into their totals.  Some areas may only receive a dusting.  I will update the numbers below.  Again - I keep saying it - this is a light event with more snow to the north and less as you go south in our area.

ILLINOIS

Carbondale, IL 1-3"
Cairo, IL Dusting to 1 1/2"
DuQuoin, IL 2-3" locally 4" possible
Harrisburg, IL 1-3"
Marion, IL 1-3"
McLeansboro, IL 1-3"
Metropolis, IL 1/2-2"

Mt Vernon, IL 2-4"
Rosiclare, IL 1-3"
Olney, IL 2-4"
Sparta, IL 2-3"
Vienna, IL 1/2"-2"


INDIANA
Evansville, IN 2-3"

MISSOURI
Farmington, MO 2-4"
Advance, MO 1-2"
Dexter, MO 1-2"
Perryville, MO 2-4"
Maldon, MO Dusting to 1"
St Louis, MO 2-4" locally higher near that area
Cape Girardeau, MO 1-3"
Sikeston, MO 1/2"-2"

KENTUCKY
Paducah, KY 1/2"-2"
Wickliffe, KY 1/2"-2"
Benton, KY 1/2-2"
Mayfield, KY Dusting to 1"
Murray, KY 1"-2"
Madisonvile, KY 1-3"
Morganfield, KY 2-3"
Bowling Green, KY Dusting to 1"
Louisville, KY 2-4"
Lexington, KY 1-3"
Elizabethtown, KY 1-3"
Somertset, KY 1-3"
London, KY 1-3"


TENNESSEE
Union City, TN - Dusting to 1"
Paris, TN Dusting to 1"
Dyersburg, TN Dusting to 1"

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Fanuary 10, 2011:

No significant changes in forecast.  The majority of our region won't see the light accumulating snows until Monday night into Tuesday.

Light snow will be possible this morning across our southern counties - more along the KY/TN border and then south.  No real forecast thought changes on that subject.

Light snowfall accumulations on Monday night into Tuesday - tweaked amounts a little bit.  Also note that temperatures on Tuesday may reach into the lower 30s.  This will help road conditions - this is not a big event for most of us.  The Paducah, KY NWS even has middle 30s for western KY and parts of southern IL - if that happens some of the snow would even melt.  Again - this is not expected to be a big storm.  Keep that in mind!

Snowfall forecast - can't put every city - but you get the general idea or can draw it out from city to city


ILLINOIS
Carbondale, IL 1-3"
Cairo, IL 1/2"-2"
DuQuoin, IL 2-3" locally 4" possible
Harrisburg, IL 1-3"
Marion, IL 1-3"
McLeansboro, IL 1-3"
Metropolis, IL 1/2"-2"
Mt Vernon, IL 2-4"
Rosiclare, IL 1-3"
Olney, IL 2-4"
Sparta, IL 2-3" 
Vienna, IL 1/2"-2"

INDIANA
Evansville, IN 2-4"

MISSOURI
Farmington, MO 2-4"
Advance, MO 1-2"
Dexter, MO 1-2"
Perryville, MO 2-4"
Maldon, MO 1"-2"
St Louis, MO 2-4" locally higher near that area
Cape Girardeau, MO 1-3"
Sikeston, MO 1/2"-2"

KENTUCKY
Paducah, KY 1/2"-2"
Wickliffe, KY 1/2"-2"
Benton, KY 1/2-2"
Mayfield, KY 1"-2" - The Mayfield totals will partly depend on them getting some snowfall from the first system - same with Murray and other KY/TN border cities.
Murray, KY 1"-2"
Madisonvile, KY 1-3"
Morganfield, KY 2-3"
Bowling Green, KY 1-2"
Louisville, KY 2-4"
Lexington, KY 1-3"
Elizabethtown, KY 1-3"
Somertset, KY 1-3"
London, KY 1-3"

TENNESSEE

Union City, TN - 1/2-2"
Paris, TN 1/2-2"
Dyersburg, TN 1/2-2"

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I made this map - should generally line up with my thinking above.  You get the general idea.

Light Snow Event Likely...

New video has been posted for January 10th - http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Light snow possible over southern portions of the region this morning - additional light snow chances arrive Monday afternoon into Tuesday.


Forecast:

Monday - Cloudy.  A chance for light snow across the southern part of our region - along the line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to Mayfield, KY - Murray, KY.  A chance for flurries and light snow across the rest of the area - snow chances increasing late in the day and Monday evening from west to east.  High temperature in the lower 30s.

Monday night - A period of snow (north) or light snow likely across the entire area.  Cold.  Low temperature in the lower to middle 20s.  Light snowfall accumulations possible.

Tuesday - Light snow likely - especially early in the day.  Total accumulation of 1/2"-3" across much of the area.  More as you go towards the north and less as you go south in the region.  Cold.  High temperature in the lower 30s. 

Tuesday Night - Cloudy.  A few snow flurries or light snow showers.  Otherwise cold.  Low near 16 degrees.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy and cold.  A few snow showers or flurries around.  High near 23 degrees.

Another precipitation event is likely from Friday into next Sunday.  Stay tuned.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here.

Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

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You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here 

Stay tuned for updates...

For southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky

Confidence is medium in a category 1 winter storm impact for Monday night into Tuesday night.  Click here for category levels and impacts.

My confidence level is at medium over the southern half of the area and high across the northern half of the area (northern meaning Farmington To Evansville northward).  Temperatures on Tuesday may rise into the lower to middle 30s over portions of our area - so road conditions may not be too bad in some areas.  This is not a big event.







Again - this would be the lowest level on the category scale.  A fairly common event - not considered major.  Light snow accumulations.  I made the scale system in order to give you a better idea of what to expect as far as impacts.

Category 1 Snowstorm

Accumulation: Snowfall accumulations of 1-4" are forecast. A fairly common event

Life Threat Level: Low threat to life if residents use care and caution when venturing out. Remember that any roadway that is slick can be dangerous. Nearly 1000 people were killed during the last two winters from accidents on slick roadways.

Travel Impact: Roads may become slick. Use caution.

Economic Impact: Little to low economic impact is expected.

Advice to Emergency Officials: Expect normal snow related operations. Listen for updates from the NWS and local media. 

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- Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/

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