January 9, 2011: Light snow chances increasing...stormy few weeks ahead of us

January 9, 2011:

Working on the evening update.

May lower snow forecast by 1/2" in some counties.  We are in between two systems - I am afraid someone who likes snow won't be happy as others.  Northern part of area has the best chance for accumulating snow - far far southern part of area has best chance from the southern storm.

Basically no real changes in the entire thought process.

BIG winter storm across the southern United States.  If you have travel plans down south then check ahead on road conditions.  Major ice and snow storm underway.

-  Beau

January 9, 2011:

New maps hot off the press here at 1 PM

This is the probability of 1" or greater of snow.  You can see how difficult of a forecast this is going to be for our region - we are literally between the two storms.

The above map is for tonight into Monday afternoon

The above map is for Monday night into Tuesday evening


January 9, 2011:

No changes in forecast - all the overnight data looks the same.  The majority of our region won't see accumulating snows until Monday night into Tuesday.

Light snow will be possible across the southern portions of our area later tonight and into Monday.  Accumulations - if any - should be light (less than 1-2").  Southern means the Missouri Bootheel and the KY/TN border counties.

Snowfall accumulations on Monday night into Tuesday - no changes in previous thoughts.

Snowfall forecast - can't put every city - but you get the general idea or can draw it out from city to city

Between Sunday night and Wednesday morning - MOST of this Monday night into Tuesday night

ILLINOIS
Carbondale, IL 1-3"
Cairo, IL 1-3"
DuQuoin, IL 2-3" locally 4" possible
Harrisburg, IL 1-3"
Marion, IL 1-3"
McLeansboro 2-3"
Metropolis 1-3"
Mt Vernon, IL 2-4"
Rosiclare, IL 1-3"
Olney, IL 2-4"
Sparta, IL 2-3" locally 4" possible
Vienna, IL 1-3"

INDIANA
Evansville, IN 2-4"

MISSOURI
Farmington, MO 2-4"
Advance, MO 2-3"
Dexter, MO 1-3"
Perryville, MO 2-4"
Maldon, MO 1-2"
St Louis, MO 2-4" locally higher near that area
Cape Girardeau, MO 1-3"
Sikeston, MO 1-3"

KENTUCKY
Paducah, KY 1-3"
Wickliffe, KY 1-3"
Benton, KY 1-3"
Mayfield, KY 1-2"
Murray, KY 1-2"
Madisonvile, KY 1-3"
Morganfield, KY 2-3"
Bowling Green, KY 1-2"
Louisville, KY 2-4"
Lexington, KY 1-3"
Elizabethtown, KY 1-3"
Somertset, KY 1-3"
London, KY 1-3"

TENNESSEE

Union City, TN - 1/2-2"
Paris, TN 1/2-2"
Dyersburg, TN 1/2-2"

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Still watching a system for next weekend.

Next update will be this evening.

-  Beau

January 9, 2011:

Someone asked me about January being warmer than normal - I abandoned that idea a long time ago.  Earlier in the winter it appeared that perhaps we might see a trend towards above normal temperatures as moved into the middle/end of the month.  That is not and has not been the forecast for awhile now.  Cold is the rule and will continue to be the rule.

Forecasts change and that is why I always say with seasonal forecasts you have got to keep coming back for updates and the latest information. 


Light Snow Event Likely...

I will update this forecast around 10-11 AM on Sunday morning - another update around 5 pm this evening.

I will add graphics later today, as well - so check back for several updates.

New video has been posted for January 9th - http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm

You can find more updates on my Facebook (under Beau Dodson) - Twitter, as well.

Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: 0%

The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Light snow possible over southern portions of the region late tonight and Monday morning - additional light snow chances arrive Monday afternoon into Tuesday.


Forecast:

Sunday - Increasing clouds.  Chilly.  High temperatures near 30 degrees.

Sunday Night - A chance for flurries or light snow over southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.  Small chance for light accumulation along the KY/TN border counties.  Cold.  Low in the 20s.

Monday - Cloudy.  A chance for flurries and light snow across the area - snow chances increasing late in the day and Monday evening from west to east.  High temperature in the lower 30s.

Monday night - Light snow likely across the entire area.  Cold.  Low temperature in the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday - Light snow likely.  Total accumulation of 1-3" across much of the area.  More as you go towards the north and less as you go south in the region.  Cold.  High temperature in the upper 20s. 

Another precipitation event is likely from Friday into next Sunday.  Stay tuned.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here.

Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

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You can view current conditions - weather radar and more information by clicking here 

Stay tuned for updates...

Transportation Cabinet Forecast - for map of districts please click here

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Sunday night into Monday evening
 
Districts 1 - southern half of district 2 - all of 3 - southern half of district 4 - all of district 8, 10, 11, and 12

A chance for light snow with a dusting to perhaps as much as 1-2" of accumulation possible (best chance of accumulation would be right along the KY/TN border). 

Confidence is medium.

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Monday evening into Tuesday evening

Districts 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11, 12

Light snow developing.  Possibly mixed with freezing drizzle.  Additional snow accumulation of 1-3".  Locally higher amounts in snow belt and upslope areas of southeastern Kentucky.

Confidence is high.

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Monday evening into Tuesday evening

Districts 4, 5, 6, 7, 9

Light snow developing.  Additional snow accumulation of 1-4". 

Confidence is high.

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Also keep in mind that some flurry and snow shower activity will continue into Wednesday.


For southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky

Confidence is rising in a category 1 winter storm impact for Monday night into Tuesday night.  Click here for category levels and impacts.

My confidence level is at medium over the southern half of the area and high across the northern half of the area (northern meaning Farmington To Evansville northward)







Again - this would be the lowest level on the category scale.  A fairly common event - not considered major.  Light snow accumulations.  I made the scale system in order to give you a better idea of what to expect as far as impacts.

Category 1 Snowstorm

Accumulation: Snowfall accumulations of 1-4" are forecast. A fairly common event

Life Threat Level: Low threat to life if residents use care and caution when venturing out. Remember that any roadway that is slick can be dangerous. Nearly 1000 people were killed during the last two winters from accidents on slick roadways.

Travel Impact: Roads may become slick. Use caution.

Economic Impact: Little to low economic impact is expected.

Advice to Emergency Officials: Expect normal snow related operations. Listen for updates from the NWS and local media. 

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- Meteorologist Beau Dodson

McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/

For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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