7 PM Update - awaiting new data - few maps from this afternoon
Tracking the differing opinions from the models for the big winter storm next week
Will it be rain? Snow? Sleet? Freezing rain in our region? All the above! Lot of possibilities.
Trends in the models are towards a deeper storm and a warmer storm. That would mean an increased chance of rain for our region. If those trends verify.
Long way to go on this one!This is the afternoon freezing rain forecast from the GFS
I will post these from time to time - we can see the differences with each run - this boundary will shift north and south over the coming days.
I don't think we will know until Saturday night or Sunday morning as to how this will play out for our region.
The best forecast is just to say that a major winter storm is likely over the central United States next week and the exact track of the storm will need to be fine tuned over the coming days.
Trying to get specific with a storm that is still three or four days away will just prove to be a fruitless endeavor. I have seen it many times. This storm will be no different.
Here is the 18z freezing rain forecast - 18z basically means the afternoon data. If you compare this to the map I posted earlier - you can see that the freezing rain has shifted north. Let's see what it does tonight when new data arrives around 10 or 11 pm.
Click image for larger view
And one more map this evening - check out the temperature difference on Saturday afternoon across the central United States. Another indication that something dramatic is about to happen.
January 28, 2011
Here is what the GFS Model is showing for Monday night into Tuesday night.
A big area of low pressure over southern Arkansas. The pink and blue colors represent precipitation and quite a bit of it. This would be snow and ice over portions of the central United States and rain into portions of our region (perhaps starting as ice).
Now - the GFS may or may not be right. This is just one model.
The trends today - indicate that the area of low pressure may track pretty far north and west. If this is the case then we would expect more rain vs frozen precipitation.
Track will be key. If this storm tracks further south and east then we have a better chance at frozen precipitation.
A real mixed bag could be in store for the region. Click for larger view.
Here is the morning ICE map - this is accumulated freezing rain from the GFS. If the GFS were to verify then this would be a signficant ice storm for some of our counties. Again - still far from certain. Just showing you the possibilities.
January 28, 2011
7 AM Update
Good morning everyone
This is when we start to fine tune the forecast - from here on out.
Couple of things are obvious this morning
1. There will be plenty of cold air next week to cause headaches for forecasters.
2. A significant storm system is likely to impact portions of the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys.
3. This storm will impact our region - to some degree.
What we will don't know this morning - and remember I told you we would not be flipping and flopping on the forecast - is we do not know the track of the storm and where the cold/warm air line will end up.
It will likely be close to our region. That means that significant amounts of precipitation will at least be possible. I am starting to zero in on the Monday night through Wednesday time frame.
I am starting to believe that Sunday night (as I hinted in the video last night) may not be as big of a concern.
There could be some precipitation break out over portions of Missouri on Sunday and Sunday night - this will be monitored.
However, my biggest concern will be the primary storm system will will hang back in the southwest just a bit.
This storm will move east/northeast on Monday into Wednesday and THIS is the storm to watch. Model data shows everything from heavy sleet and ice to heavy snow and then heavy rain in and near our region. This is going to be a difficult forecast for our region. Especially since the sensible weather will vary so much from one area to the next.
The cold air boundary is shallow - and as I showed you in the video - the difference of a few counties could mean the difference between temperatures in the 20s and 30s to temperatures in the 40s and 50s.
Again, still too early to have confidence in the track and sensible weather for our local counties.
The National Weather Service Offices around the region are starting to ramp up their rhetoric out of concern for how this storm may unfold for portions of the reion. I read through all of the local offices and they are all now discussing this big winter storm threat.
Now we just need to work through the details. Will we end up with mostly a rain event or will we be facing significant snow and ice?
- Stay tuned
Here is the latest 5 day precipitation forecast from the NWS - you can see our region is near the 1" mark - higher as you go south and east. If that were to be all frozen and snow then it would be a significant event. If it were to be rain - then it would simply be welcome rain!
Click the image for a larger view
More concerning is the image below - which shows a band of heavy freezing rain over portions of the region. This is what we will be watching.
The above image is the snowfall forecast through next Wednesday. Some big big totals in and near our region. Also some big rain totals.
Track will be key in this storm and intensity.
Stay tuned
Beau Dodson
January 28, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 28th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
Forecast:
Friday - Partly sunny and warmer with highs in the middle 40s.
Friday night - Partly cloudy with lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday - Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
Our "event" that we have been talking about for the past week is starting to unfold. Big questions remain as to whether this ends up being a rain or ice - snow event.
I could take a shot in the dark and guess as to how this unfolds - but that isn't very helpful - now is it?
I will be fine tuning the forecast over the coming days.
It appears that the best opportunity for precipitation will arrive on Monday into Wednesday.
A strong boundary will be located near or over our region on Sunday into Wednesday. To the north of this boundary will be cold air and to the south of this boundary will be warm air.
Let me show you an example of what I am talking about - the following image is the NAM and the temperature forecast for Sunday. Check out the difference between northern Missouri and southern Missouri. This is impressive.
The blue represents 20s and 30s and the orange area in southwest Missouri would represent 50s/60s.
Several storm systems will ride along this boundary early next week. This will help spark precipitation over the Missouri Valley into the Mississippi Valley.
There will be a potential for all types of precipitation along this boundary. This will include freezing rain and sleet for some counties.
Right now it is still too early to determine how this event will unfold for our local counties.
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
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