2 PM UPDATE
Please read carefully and note that these are my first thoughts on how this storm will unfold.
Please remember that ANY change in the track of this winter storm will have major implications on the sensible weather conditions.
Please NOTE the areas of highest concern.
My Facebook Account has moved to BEAU DODSON WEATHER - simply put that into the Facebook search bar - I have been updated that constantly.
Winter Weather Radar can be viewed on the Weather Observatory page
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/
Also video briefings here (updated around 9-11 pm each night)
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
January 29, 2011
Winter Storm Update...
A dangerous and significant winter storm will threaten portions of the central United States on Sunday night through Wednesday.
The peak of this storm will be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
My current highest concern area will stretch from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to just north of Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Mt Vernon, Illinois and areas north and west of there and also into portions of Indiana and Ohio.
These areas may experience significant ice and snow accumulations. Extended power outages will be possible from downed power lines and tree limbs if the ice accumulates as much as some of the data indicates.
AT THIS TIME - it appears enough warm air will move into western Kentucky to keep us mostly rain on Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, if the storm were to shift south and east then we would have to deal with the chance for freezing rain and sleet. It is still a bit early to determine this.
Northern Kentucky will likely have the highest risk for freezing rain and sleet. Southern and eastern Kentucky may have pockets of freezing rain and sleet changing to rain. Again - a bit early to pin this down.
Residents of northern Kentucky - Louisville area over to Cincinnati, Ohio may have to deal with freezing rain and sleet.
There are still questions as to the exact track of this winter storm and the intensity.
Please review your emergency preparedness plans. Extended power outages are possible - especially over portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and possibly into northern Kentucky.
I am not confident enough in the storm track to pin down which counties will be most impacted by this winter storm.
Again - AT THIS TIME - it appears the most likely area for significant accumulations of freezing rain and ice will be over portions of Missouri into Illinois and Indiana - perhaps our northern and western counties.
HOWEVER, the difference between one county and the next county could be significant. Similar to past winter storms in our region - example being the 2008 ice storm where some counties had all rain - some counties had all ice - and some counties received all snow. One county to the next made a significant difference in what type of weather occurred.
I have spent a considerable amount of time reviewing all of the data today. It appears that an area of low pressure will form over Texas on Sunday and Sunday night and move into the Tennessee Valley on Monday night into Tuesday night. This storm will have an abundant amount of moisture. All modes of precipitation will be possible - starting on Sunday night into Monday (light and scattered precipitation). This will include a mix of freezing rain and sleet/snow over our region - perhaps changing to all rain.
This precipitation - if frozen - could cause some travel problems. There remain some questions as to how much precipitation (although all the data indicates light precipitation) will occur on Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Please check the latest local forecast for the most up to date information.
The intensity and coverage of the precipitation will increase dramatically on Tuesday into Tuesday night. This is the time period when significant accumulations of sleet, freezing rain - ice, and snow will be possible over some of our counties. Other portions of the area will likely be all rain and even a risk for thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms may also be embedded in the freezing rain, sleet, and snow areas. Thundersnow will be possible in some areas with significant accumulations. This would most likely occur over parts of south central and southeast Missouri into portions of southern and central Illinois. See the above mentioned outlined area. Poplar Bluff to Mt Vernon - and areas north and west of there.
If the current data verifies then snowfall accumulations in excess of 8-10 inches will be possible over portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Most likely areas for these heavier totals would be further north and west of our immediate local area. St Louis, Missouri into central Illinois into Chicago may experience significant travel problems on Monday night into Tuesday night.
This is a fluid weather situation and still developing. Local NWS Offices and meteorologists are working hard to pin point what areas will be most impacted. Please stay tuned to the blog and other sources of weather information for the most up to to date data.
I am sure there will be some changes in the forecast over the coming 48 hours.
Winter storm watches/warnings and ice storm warnings will likely be necessary over a large area of the central United States - including portions of our region.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser
Previous update below...
January 29, 2011
2 PM Update
I am amazed at some of the weather map images I am looking at this afternoon. Having a hard time believing
some of the solutions. They are showing what appears to be an historic snowstorm for portions of the Missouri Valle into Illinois. Heavy ice, as well for some counties.
Some of the numbers being spit out by the data are incredible - 12-20 inches of snow in some areas.
I continue to look over all of the data. This will be an extremely difficult forecast for our local counties.
Leaning towards warmer for west Kentucky - but it is still not certain.
Ice is likely over portions of northern Kentucky - changing to rain at some point later on Tuesday into Wednesday morning before changing back to sleet and snow.
Southeast Missouri could be mostly rain in the Bootheel and far southeast Missouri and then a significant ice storm over portions of southeast Missouri - say closer to Poplar Bluff to St Louis - Farmington perhaps. Sleet and snow in that region, as well.
Southern Illinois - northern part could see heavy snow and ice and then rain over the far southern counties.
A few counties might make all the difference between a crippling ice storm and just plain old cold rain.
Going to be a tough forecast in the coming days - stay tuned.
- Beau
Previous discussion below...
January 29, 2011
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
9 AM Update
Amazing! This is an image grab of the morning NAM - this would be an historic or near historic storm for portions of the central United States.
This solution is quite warm for our region and would even introduce severe thunderstorm chances for portions of the region. Especially the Tennessee Valley.
This map shows a deep area of low pressure over northeast Arkansas and Western Tennessee on Tuesday.
Very heavy snow would likely fall across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan. More to our north and northwest. Also heavy sleet and freezing rain would be possible over portions of the same states.
I am starting to lean more towards a warm solution for much of our region - there may be some precipitation break out as early as Sunday night and Monday - this could be a mixture. Same for Monday night - then warmer air would advance into our region (portions of our region) on Tuesday. Any frozen precipitation would then change to rain and possibly thunderstorms.
This storm is still 4 days away - that is a long time in the weather world. Track of this storm will be key to our sensible weather.
NAM Model from this morning - this image depicts a powerful storm! The second map is the 850 mb wind fields. THIS is why I said the last few days that it is totally rediculous for anyone to try and give specific forecasts on this storm - county forecasts for snow and ice 5 days out? That just doesn't work. You will flip and flop - flip and flop in your forecast.
January 29, 2011
Depending on what browser you are viewing this with - I apologize for the spacing errors. I just can't seem to get WordPress to space properly. Mozilla/Firefox seems to work best. Internet Explorer puts too many spaces between images and words.
My next update will be around 11 am Saturday morning
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 29th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Will be watching for some scattered precipitation late on Sunday into Sunday night.
Forecast:
Saturday - Pick weather day of the week! Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Saturday Night - Becoming cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s over the northern part of our region and lower 30s over the southern part of the region. A boundary will cut across our region with stark temperature contrasts across that boundary.
Sunday - More clouds than sun. A boundary will be placed across our region - temperatures will range from the 20s over the northern part of the area and in the 30s across the middle and southern part of our region.
We will start to think about introducing precipitation chances on Sunday evening.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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An extremely complicated weather forecast will unfold on Sunday night into next Wednesday. See the video for detailed information.
We have been following this storm for the last week. It is becoming more and more clear that a well defined area of low pressure will develop over Texas on Sunday night and Monday. This storm will then push east/northeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The storm will likely track into the Tennessee Valley. There are still some questions on just how far north the low will track.
The exact track of this storm and the intensity of the low pressure will be the deciding factor in what type of precipitation falls across our region.
Areas to the north of the low will have a better chance of snow and ice and areas south of the low will likely be rain and thunderstorms.
At this time it appears snow will be likely on Monday into Wednesday across the northern part of our region and northwestern part of our region. Then a mix of sleet and freezing rain across the central part of our region and then rain across the southern part of our area.
This storm has the potential to be a significant precipitation maker. Areas that receive winter weather and stay winter precipitation could see quite a bit of accumulation.
I am still not confident enough in the forecast to tell you what counties will end up with more snow than ice and more ice than rain.
I am hoping to start to fine tune this forecast on Saturday evening and Sunday morning.
Stay tuned for updates
I will update the blog around 11 AM Saturday morning. I will then update it again during the late afternoon hours.
A few maps from the video - just one possible outcome. There are questions as to the intensity of this storm. This is powerful storm on the GFS model - other models are further north with the low and some further east.
But - for example - you can get the general idea as to how this storm may unfold - the pink and blue areas are precipitation. You can see the low coming out of Texas and into the Tennessee Valley. Snow, ice, sleet, and rain to the north - rain and thunderstorms to the south. Track will be key key key - to this event.
Click images for larger views
A few maps from the video - just one possible outcome. There are questions as to the intensity of this storm. This is powerful storm on the GFS model - other models are further north with the low and some further east.
But - for example - you can get the general idea as to how this storm may unfold - the pink and blue areas are precipitation. You can see the low coming out of Texas and into the Tennessee Valley. Snow, ice, sleet, and rain to the north - rain and thunderstorms to the south. Track will be key key key - to this event.
Click images for larger views
- Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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