7 PM Update
Snow is falling over much of the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennessee and portions of western Kentucky. Current snow forecast appears good.
Reports of 1" of snow in Cadiz, KY. Also a dusting over portions of Graves into Marshall County - Calloway County and Fulton County, as well.
Biggest question will end up being the counties along the Ohio River in IL and KY. Just too close to call - either way only a dusting to an inch is expected in that area.
Otherwise - everything else appears to be on track.
Pockets of heavier accumulation not out of the question near and east of KY Lake. That was covered in the video and below.
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Beau
January 25, 2011
1 PM Map Update
HERE ARE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST NUMBERS
The above image is my official forecast numbers
- Beau
Please scroll down for previous updates and snowfall forecast maps - I am going to go ahead and cut and paste my email forecast I just sent out to everyone.
Noon update that I just sent out to everyone
Extremely difficult forecast - once again (when hasn't it been this winter)
No big changes - tweaked a few counties and snowfall totals (extremely difficult forecast as it comes down to one or two counties in the shift zone). If there is going to be an error in this forecast then it will probably be that I am still a county or two too far south and east with the accumulating snow and amounts may be a little too low. We will see how it goes.
A few small changes from last nights video update - also everything appears to be on track from the 5 am blog update. I shifted the snow north and west late last night and put out an accumulation map yesterday at 8 pm. Two maps, actually, one map was for the storm to stay on the forecast track and the second map was if it were to shift a little west.
Remember that I update the blog the most often and Facebook - then the video once per day around 10 pm - and then emails when I feel an update is needed. So - for the most up to date information check the blog and the Facebook!
All of the morning data indicated a very slight shift further west and north. In anticipation of the data shifting, this morning at 5 am, I moved the snowfall accumulation forecast a county or two further north and west.
You can see all of those changes here
http://weatherobservatory.blogspot.com/
I have winter weather radar up and running - we are tracking the large storm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
I will update my Facebook several times today - remember you have to hit the LIKE button at the top of that page in order to follow the updates
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
If I think any additional small changes need to occur then I will update the blog. It is easier for everyone to check that page vs another email. Plus it allows me to post you images and graphics.
Illinois:
Far southern Illinois - along the Ohio River
Some light rain this afternoon - changing to snow tonight. Can't rule out a dusting to an inch. Snow is more likely as you travel south and east into Kentucky.
Southwest Indiana
A chance for light rain and snow changing to light snow. Little accumulation is expected.
Missouri Bootheel - rain and snow this afternoon changing to snow tonight. Light accumulation possible. Less than 1" of snow.
Northwest Tennessee - rain today changing to snow tonight. Some light accumulation possible - most likely in the 1-3" range. More as you go east and southeast.
Kentucky
This email is read statewide - so stay with me as I also discuss other sections of the State of Kentucky
I will mention the district map - here it is
http://weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
District 1 - far western Kentucky - including Paducah, Mayfield, Wickliffe, Murray, Benton, and Calvert City (again see the map please)
Rain later this afternoon - changing to snow tonight. Snow accumulations are forecast to be lightest near the Ohio River. A dusting to an inch is possible along the Ohio River. Accumulations will increase a bit as you go south and east. I have placed them in the 1-2" category. Can't rule out some higher totals if a heavier snow band were to form and move over those southeastern counties in district 1. So - keep that in mind.
District 2
Northern half of district 2 - Some rain mixed with snow changing to snow tonight. Snow ending on Wednesday morning. Light dusting to an inch possible over the northern part of district 2. 1-3" of snow possible over the southern portion of district 2. The far southern section of district 2 could have heavier snow if a band sets up over that area.
District 3
This is a difficult district - depending on the time of the change over. I had them in the 1-3" range - however, that may need to be increased a bit. There is some data that shows a period of heavy snow is likely in this district. I will bump them up to 2-4". Some locally higher amounts are possible in district 3 and 4. There is one set of data that shows a period of very heavy snow in this district into parts of district 4 and 8, as well. This is something that will need to be monitored.
District 4
Rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending on Wednesday morning. I have placed district 4 in the 1-4" range. See the accumulation map on my blog. Again not the wild card of the potential for heavier bursts of snow.
District 5
Rain and snow changing to snow tonight and ending on Wednesday. Some light accumulation possible. 1-3" possible.
District 6
A chance for light rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending Wednesday afternoon. A dusting to an inch is not out of the question.
District 7
Rain and snow changing to all snow tonight and ending Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some heavy wet snow is possible. 3-6 inches of snow possible.
Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12
There are serious questions on the timing of rain changing to snow in these counties. The NWS is having an extremely difficult time with how to handle this particular area of Kentucky. If the rain does not change over to snow when expected then less snow will accumulate than is currently forecast. Please keep this in mind - otherwise rain will mix with and should change to snow tonight and on Wednesday morning. Precipitation should end on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Additional snow showers are possible into Thursday. Total accumulation should be in the 4-8" range. If the rain turns over quicker than forecast then higher totals will be possible. Again, this is a difficult forecast area.
Stay tuned for updates on all watches and warnings for this event.
No big changes in previous forecasts - just tweaking amounts a little bit.
A lot of this is coming down to the difference between one or two counties getting snow or no snow at all. This makes it tricky for meteorologists.
There will be a sharp gradient in snowfall totals - meaning you could go from a dusting or an inch to several inches within one county.
I am going to attach the WRF Model Snowfall forecast - it is actually showing some extreme totals over part of western and central Kentucky. Something of interest and also showing you what forecasters are up against in this storm. Although the attached map is unlikely to verify - it is something that forecasters have to consider when looking at a storm like this. Pockets of higher snowfall totals. This will come down to a "nowcast" later today and this evening. That means - forecasters will not know where the heaviest band of snow will develop until a few hours in advance of the event.
Don't be surprised if some areas receive more snowfall than forecast - especially in districts 3, 4, 7, and 8
Also note that this could be a heavy wet snow in portions of Kentucky. This could cause damage to trees and power lines. People living in the areas expecting heavy snow should take precautions in the event of potential power failures later tonight and on Wednesday morning.
For all the latest watches and warnings please visit this site
http://www.weather.gov/view/largemap.php
Again - I will update the blog and Facebook with more information - if need be.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Transportation Cabinet Adviser
The image below - remember - is just one models opinion on where some heavier snow could occur. But, I don't want there to be any surprises if heavier snow does develop in a few counties.
Click image for a larger view
PREVIOUS UPDATE FROM 5 AM - BELOW
January 25, 2011
5 AM
Updated forecast and snowfall forecast map:
Forecast:
Tuesday - Fog this morning. Mostly cloudy. Rain likely spreading into the Missouri Bootheel, far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Rain may mix with snow late this afternoon. High temperature in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night - Rain changing to snow. Precipitation most likely in the Missouri Bootheel, western Tennesee, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Snow may accumulate 1-2" near the KY/TN line and near Kentucky Lake and then eastward. A dusting to an inch of snow is possible a row of counties further north and northwest. Little or snow accumulation is expected from the Ohio River northward. See the snowfall forecast map. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Wednesday - Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the middle 30s.
Updated snowfall map - tweaked it a little bit. Concerned the precipitation shield may be 20 miles or so further north and west than expected. Very tough call on that. We are talking just a few miles.
However, with that in mind - I will add a dusting or so to the north and west edge and also increase totals in Tennessee just a little bit.
There are some serious questions about portions of eastern Kentucky and exactly what time they change over to snow. The NWS is hedging now and wondering if some areas will not change over to much snow at all. They have kept the winter storm watch this morning and did not upgrade to a warning. In areas where there may be three to six inches of snow - rain could mix in and reduce those totals. However, this is uncertain - so they kept the watch and said they would check conditions later today.
Bottom line - for eastern Kentucky - rain should change to snow later tonight and there should be some accumulation. If the big totals are realized it will be because the precipitation changed to snow and remained snow.
Here is the update map - Click for larger view. There could also be a light dusting in the Missouri Bootheel if the precipitation changes over to snow soon enough.
January 25, 2011
These snowfall forecast maps were issued at 8 PM on Monday night
A major winter storm will impact areas to our east. If you have travel plans south and east over the coming 24-48 hours then you might want to check ahead on road conditions.
My snowfall forecast map - general - Click for a larger view. There may be isolated higher totals over far southeast Kentucky. Also note this will be a wet snow - this could cause some problems to tree limbs and power lines.
This will be a significant event for districts 7, 8, 10, 11, and 12.
These are my first thoughts on accumulations - if the storm were to be a bit further west then we would need to tack on an inch or two to the accumulations. I will monitor and update accordingly. But - you get the general idea from the above map as to where snow is expected to fall. Again - if the storm were to shift a bit further west and be a little more moist then add another 1-2" to those totals.
That shift would look more like the map below - if it were to occur
District map can be viewed here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
Again the above maps were issued early on Monday night and our my first call maps.
January 24, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 25th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for light rain and snow over our southern and southeastern counties. Mainly to the east/southeast of Kentucky Lake. Some may creep a bit further west/northwest.
Forecast:
Tuesday night - A chance for rain or snow - changing to all light snow over our far southern counties. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Rain/snow mix may creep as far north as the Ohio River - but nothing significant is expected.
Wednesday - Partly sunny and cool. Highs only in the middle 30s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
--------------------
A significant storm system will impact central and eastern Kentucky over the next 24-36 hours. Otherwise, the western part of the state will just see some clouds and perhaps some areas of light rain changing to light snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Our local area is not expecting any significant snow accumulation from this event. Perhaps a dusting or so near the KY/TN line near Kentucky Lake and then east from there. Spotty 1" totals not out of the question - see the map above.
The next storm of interest might arrive around February 1st. That is a long way off! Plenty of time to keep an eye on that event. Also watching the time period around February 10-14th.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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