4 PM Update
Snow showers and drizzle/freezing drizzle over the region this evening. Here is your latest radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_comp2.htm
Most of the data continues to push the big mid-week system too far south and east to impact our region.
However, we will continue to track it and update if any changes need to be made to the ongoing forecast.
- Beau
January 23, 2011
Update
Well even though I gave this event a low confidence rating last night it still seems like it was a bad forecast - esp for the northwest and north part of the area.
So, will give it the old sinking ship image and move on!
REMOVING snow accumulations as the system has weakened considerably. I thought this was a possibility last night and really had doubts about how much snow would fall. It appears those doubts have materialized into reality.
The National Weather Service, who had a winter weather advisory in effect for much of our region, has now canceled their advisory. They seem to agree that the amounts are just not going to materialize.
The system has weakened quite a bit - enough that I am not comfortable leaving accumulation forecasts included in this update.
A dusting to an inch will still be possible over portions of the region. But a widespread 1-3" event is highly unlikely.
So - I will tweak the forecast numbers even more than I did last night.
January 23, 2011:
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 23rd Video - http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for some light snow today into tonight. Low confidence in snow accumulating. Better chances as you go west and northwest in the region.
Forecast:
Sunday night - A chance for light snow. Low temperature in the middle 20s. Little in the way of accumulation is expected. A dusting or so is possible.
Monday - A chance for flurries or light drizzle and freezing drizzle. High temperature in the lower 30s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
This snow event appears to be a mostly a bust - it has weakened considerably. We are no longer expecting much more than a dusting to perhaps an inch in a few counties.
Confidence was low last night in how this would unfold - especially for our immediate local counties. Confidence was medium as you went towards Farmington and St Louis. That area has received some snow this morning - a dusting to perhaps an inch or so.
Snow showers are currently occurring over our region - but a widespread 1-3" event is not likely.
Some additional snow should develop from the southwest later this afternoon, as well. Again - some light accumulation can't be ruled out.
The next big event I am watching shows up around Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now it appears areas to our south and east may once again be hit by another significant winter storm.
Portions of central and eastern Kentucky may have to deal with this storm system - the track of the area of low pressure will be key in sensible weather for our region and areas to our east.
And finally - DOWN the road
I am watching the potential for a significant system "around" February 1st.
Here is what the EC (one computer model) is showing for that time period - again LONG way off - but something I will be watching in the coming days. The blue line is roughly where the freezing line would be located and the green is precipitation. If that forecast model were to be correct then we would be looking at snow.
Again, this is way out in model fantasy land. Too far out to actually make a forecast. Just something worth watching during the upcoming week. We will see how it trends. There is some support in the emsembles (bunch of models) for this event.
Stay tuned - I will update the blog as I fine tune the forecast.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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